Garlan Garner
Banned
That's exactly what I thought when they tweeted out the 1500 number.
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Glimpse of M3 Assemble Line?
- Thread starter int-veh
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- Model 3 Tesla Inc.
That's exactly what I thought when they tweeted out the 1500 number.
"Large numbers" is a very relative term at this point in the ramp up. I don't believe @Saghost was suggesting that they are currently producing 1k a week. Looking at this video and saying "oh my god, it's only 1/10th the speed it should be, Tesla is doomed!" is disingenuous at best. We don't know how far along the entire assembly line is, we don't know how far along Tesla expected it to be when they gave out estimated build numbers, we don't know if or how delivery estimates are going to be affected. Just about the only thing we do know is that the people who are saying the the Model 3s are all hand built are wrong.
Then we are all off topic because this thread is supposed to be about the assembly line, not what Tesla said or didn't say.
You don't want truth, what you're asking for is a guarantee. There is no reason to assume that they didn't speak the truth when they gave their delivery and production estimates. Truth can change ... the truth is that it is sort of overcast here right now, tomorrow the truth might be that it is sunny. The way you phrase things and question them suggests that you seriously think that Tesla is outright lying to everyone - deliberately. Could they have been a bit more conservative with their estimates? Sure. Is it the end of the world? Nope.
Garlan Garner
Banned
That is totally Ludicrous.
Tesla quoted numbers for September. No one forced them to quote anything. They didn't happen.
That's just one example.
Snippy forum
Garlan Garner
Banned
What? I don't know what the weather will be like tomorrow.....so I don't predict anything. Period.
Tesla predicted what the production future ( September ) would be and it didn't happen. Period. easy. There isn't an alternate truth.
Tell me what the weather will be like on the 2nd Tuesday next month. And if you are wrong...you are wrong. The truth doesn't ever change.
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I have no idea how many frames Tesla is turning out right now, and I don't believe that anyone else on the thread does, either.
My point was that if they aren't planning to run multiple lines in parallel, 10% of designed speed would mean 10% of what they expected this line to produce - presumably the 10k per week from late 2018 - which would mean that they don't need it to run much faster than 10% during this ramp up phase, unless they plan to run it intermittently.
You seemed to be saying that the line running at 10% must mean they still had big problems - but if it's the single line intended to handle 10k cars per week late next year, I don't see why that would be the case.
You're using weather as an example? Aren't you from Chicago? How often are the weather people there wrong? They make predictions to the best of their ability. But things can change. Same thing here. They can be "optimistic" and call for less bad weather than they might think or "pessimistic" and call for more, but they can still be wrong either way.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
No, you and others are putting words in my mouth.
I'm not saying they are doomed and I'm not saying they have "big problems".
I am saying that at this stage of production where you are tweaking the robots welding the frames you normally would not be in "normal" production.
Are they producing 100 frames a week or 1000? I don't know, I just know that if they are at the point of frame production where the robots are running this slow they are nowhere near normal production levels, whatever that is assumed to be.
There's more to the car than building the frames. If the frames were flying off the line and having to be stacked or warehoused because they are waiting on a shipment of seats, or light covers, or batteries, that would be different than what we are seeing which is what looks like tuning of the line.
I expect Tesla to work through these problems and start delivering the M3 in volume, sometime early next year. Whether that's Jan or March is anybody's guess because unless you work for Tesla you don't know what things look like.
What I am saying is that I'm currently skeptical that all of those who have a "October-December" delivery window will get their car before the end of the year, but we will see.
It's advantageous for me if Tesla slowly ramps up, doesn't deliver their 200K car till April 1st and then is able to build the cars in huge volume... because then I would be able to take delivery in September when my current vehicle lease is up, still get the full tax credit, and possibly get AWD if it's available at that time.
They've said they're at the bottom of the S-Curve. Who could possibly count that as being in the "normal" production level zone? It'd basically have to be at the top of the S-Curve to be considered "normal" production... which would mean end of 2018 by even Tesla's generous estimates. It's all a ramp up to try and get to normal until then.
This is my whole point. There is a lot more to building the car, and if there's another part of the production that can't sustain a higher rate right now, I think out of the various options (stockpiling frames, running the frame line intermittently, or running the frame line slowly,) I would pick running at 10% even if there isn't any tuning of the frame line to be done - the other options have higher risks and higher costs.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Where did they say that?
They were to build 1500 cars in September and continue ramping up from there to thousands of cars per week by the end of the year. It doesn't seem that this will happen. It's possible, just doesn't look likely.
1500 cars in September is well above the 200 "early" cars they were to build in August. They missed both targets.
If we assume that 100% speed means the 5K/week they are supposed to get to in December, then 10% speed means 500 per week, right? That sounds OK to me for early October.
Nobody even knows the reason he sent out a video of the line at 10%.
It doesn't even mean the current line is going at 10%.
It doesn't even mean the current line is going at 10%.
Yes, it's true that their prediction was wrong. What you don't seem to understand though is that just because it was wrong doesn't mean it wasn't made in good faith considering everything they knew at the time. You need to stop equating truth with an estimate.
When you realize that this is not a correct statement you'll understand.
I interpret Elon's tweet as saying that the posted video showing robots welding a Model 3 body is at 1/10 the speed it will be running in the near future. Obviously the line starts out running slowly and then is sped up later.
Garlan Garner
Banned
What in the world are you guys talking about.
Weathermen are wrong all of the time. Its amazing they still have jobs.
No... car making is an exact science......or at least it is for other vendors. When they say that you can go buy a car on a commercial....gues what? you can. Tesla is in full control of car making and the information they give out concerning making cars.
Whethermen aren't in control of the weather. You guys know the ludicrousness of that argument? I didn't start talking about weather....someone else tried to use that weird analogy to make their point.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I don't have a problem at all with the ramp up or anything concerning the speed of the robots. Tesla can ramp up till next February for all I care. If Tesla said that the ramp would be only 300 cars per month in January......fine....as long as there are 300 cars made in January.
This entire forum is full of folks who talk about Tesla's timing. EMT (Elon Musk Time) is even an official thing.
Don't tell me that the ramp will be at 1500 in September and its not. I don't know how much simpler it can get.
Don't tell me that AP2 will match AP1 in January and now its October and its still not "smooth as silk".
Garlan Garner
Banned
Absolutely not. The truth is truth. I don't believe Kelly Ann Conway at all about alternate truths. There are truths and lies. You are definitely wrong on this one.
BTW. Elon does not say anything about estimating. That's the word you use to justify him missing the mark.
Was having AP2 match AP1 by January just an estimate? How long does an estimate last? Its now October and AP2 is still subpar to AP1.
5 years ago Elon said that the Model S will have a tow option. Is that a 10 year estimate where he's not wrong yet?
Garlan Garner
Banned
Great point.
@ecarfan How fast is 100 percent? How many cars is that? 10% means nothing if you don't know what 100% is.
What if 100% is 100 cars per week?
To save time.
my next question after you respond is: Where is your link?
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