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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jan 3, 2020.
Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019. Let's discuss the prospects for 2020.
I think the major wild card is GF3. My quick estimate was ~560k, but it assumed most growth came from GF3. If Tesla significantly expands production capacity in the US (e.g., Model Y production doesn't cannibalize Model 3) I would expect it to be quite a bit higher, but I'm not sure how reasonable that would be.
7k a week Fremont 3 all year
2k a week GF3 3 all year
1k a week Fremont S/X all year
3k a week Fremont Y for a half year
Plus some Semis and GF3 Ys
Totals to 600k, going for the over since S/X could be 1.5k
Current Fremont Quarterly Production 105k x 4 quarters = 420k
GF3 output per quarter: 10k,20k,30k,30k = 90k
MY production start 2nd quarter 10k,20k,30k = 60k
BTW, I set the poll up to accept upto 3 choices. That's so we can get a feel for the outer limits of what we think is probable.
I'd be curious about what sort of pathway people see to their upper limits or what motivates their lower limits.
Thanks all for sharing.
Assuming battery cell limited on Fremont 3/Y:
GF1 35GWh/70kWh per-pack -> 500k Fremont 3/Y
+80-90k Fremont S/X
Pessimistic : 450k to 500k - if things go wrong, recession hits etc
Likely : 500k to 550k
Optimistic : 550k to 600k If GF3 and Y rampup goes faster
I'd put my most likely number between 525k to 575k, rather than 500k to 550k, if I had that choice.
Using my highly proprietary algorithms yields 544,075, 551,250 and 551,979.
When I was looking at Tesla delivery numbers earlier its pretty close to 50% increase each year, but there was a bigger jump once (I forget which year, too lazy to look). So, just from that, I'd go for a 50% increase yet again -- which is what, 550k? Which is why I'd go for 550k ±40k or whatever as a margin. However, the one notable exception was a bigger jump and we have justification (GF3). Given your alignment of ranges I'd go for the next one up as the hedge.
And, there, I changed my vote to add that.
Guiding 540-600k, hitting 552k.
Guidance 575 - 625k
Numbers 650 - 700k
M3 Fremont ~345k
MY Fremont ~70k
M3 Giga 3 ~180k
MY Giga 3 ~25k
Probably some hiccups, but they'll still do 650k+ I reckon.
Cell supply shortages would ruin these numbers.
GRAND TOTAL: 555,555
With GF3 going two shifts mid Q1 and Model Y already in small scale production I am gonna up my estimates.
Guiding 560-640k, hitting 602k. 2021 is gonna be epic!
Is that how many posts ago this 420-69 thing stopped being funny?
Sorry, sorry... just getting the "been there, done that" sort of feeling...
You mean 2020 is gonna be epic?
It was never funny, that's what makes it funny now. Keep up!
It already is. But 2021 will be on another level, GF3 3+Y 7k/week of each, GF4 Y up and running, Freemont 3+Y, Semi, Cybertruck, FSD, solar roofs, dry electrode batteries. I am thinking 1M+ cars in 2021. Tesla will be printing money and expanding into every form of terrestrial transportation.