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Global Deliveries 2020

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jan 3, 2020.

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How many vehicles will Tesla deliver in 2020?

  1. Less than 450k

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  2. 450k to less than 500k

    6 vote(s)
    6.7%
  3. 500k to less than 550k

    39 vote(s)
    43.8%
  4. 550k to less than 600k

    33 vote(s)
    37.1%
  5. 600k to less than 650k

    18 vote(s)
    20.2%
  6. 650k or more

    7 vote(s)
    7.9%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles in 2019. Let's discuss the prospects for 2020.
     
  2. humbaba

    humbaba sleeping until $7000

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    I think the major wild card is GF3. My quick estimate was ~560k, but it assumed most growth came from GF3. If Tesla significantly expands production capacity in the US (e.g., Model Y production doesn't cannibalize Model 3) I would expect it to be quite a bit higher, but I'm not sure how reasonable that would be.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    7k a week Fremont 3 all year
    2k a week GF3 3 all year
    1k a week Fremont S/X all year
    3k a week Fremont Y for a half year
    Plus some Semis and GF3 Ys
    Totals to 600k, going for the over since S/X could be 1.5k
     
    • Like x 4
  4. GregRF

    GregRF Squirrel Power

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    Location:
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    570K
    Current Fremont Quarterly Production 105k x 4 quarters = 420k
    GF3 output per quarter: 10k,20k,30k,30k = 90k
    MY production start 2nd quarter 10k,20k,30k = 60k
     
    • Like x 2
  5. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    BTW, I set the poll up to accept upto 3 choices. That's so we can get a feel for the outer limits of what we think is probable.

    I'd be curious about what sort of pathway people see to their upper limits or what motivates their lower limits.

    Thanks all for sharing.
     
  6. reardencode

    reardencode Supporting Member

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    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    >650k

    Assuming battery cell limited on Fremont 3/Y:
    GF1 35GWh/70kWh per-pack -> 500k Fremont 3/Y
    +80-90k Fremont S/X
    +50-100k GF3
     
    • Like x 1
  7. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    #7 EVNow, Jan 3, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
    Pessimistic : 450k to 500k - if things go wrong, recession hits etc
    Likely : 500k to 550k
    Optimistic : 550k to 600k If GF3 and Y rampup goes faster

    I'd put my most likely number between 525k to 575k, rather than 500k to 550k, if I had that choice.
     
    • Like x 5
  8. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Using my highly proprietary algorithms yields 544,075, 551,250 and 551,979.

    So 549,101.

    Bank.
     
    • Funny x 1
  9. humbaba

    humbaba sleeping until $7000

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    When I was looking at Tesla delivery numbers earlier its pretty close to 50% increase each year, but there was a bigger jump once (I forget which year, too lazy to look). So, just from that, I'd go for a 50% increase yet again -- which is what, 550k? Which is why I'd go for 550k ±40k or whatever as a margin. However, the one notable exception was a bigger jump and we have justification (GF3). Given your alignment of ranges I'd go for the next one up as the hedge.

    And, there, I changed my vote to add that.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    Guiding 540-600k, hitting 552k.
     
    • Like x 1
  11. FrankSG

    FrankSG Supporting Member

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    Location:
    Singapore
    Guidance 575 - 625k
    Numbers 650 - 700k

    (Under-promise, Over-deliver)

    S+X ~70k
    M3 Fremont ~345k
    MY Fremont ~70k
    M3 Giga 3 ~180k
    MY Giga 3 ~25k
    Total ~690k

    Probably some hiccups, but they'll still do 650k+ I reckon.

    Cell supply shortages would ruin these numbers.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Location:
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    Fremont:
    S: 20k
    X: 55,555

    M3: 220k
    MY: 150k
    TOTAL: 445.555

    Shanghai
    M3: 100k
    MY: 10k

    GRAND TOTAL: 555,555
     
    • Like x 3
    • Funny x 1
  13. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    With GF3 going two shifts mid Q1 and Model Y already in small scale production I am gonna up my estimates.

    Guiding 560-640k, hitting 602k. 2021 is gonna be epic!
     
  14. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    420,069
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Funny x 1
  15. ammulder

    ammulder '98 GS400 -> P3D+

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    Is that how many posts ago this 420-69 thing stopped being funny?

    Sorry, sorry... just getting the "been there, done that" sort of feeling...
     
  16. jeewee3000

    jeewee3000 Member

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    You mean 2020 is gonna be epic?
     
  17. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    It was never funny, that's what makes it funny now. Keep up!
     
    • Helpful x 1
  18. heltok

    heltok Active Member

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    It already is. But 2021 will be on another level, GF3 3+Y 7k/week of each, GF4 Y up and running, Freemont 3+Y, Semi, Cybertruck, FSD, solar roofs, dry electrode batteries. I am thinking 1M+ cars in 2021. Tesla will be printing money and expanding into every form of terrestrial transportation.
     
    • Like x 1

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