GM’s new Ultra Cruise: Hands-free driving on all paved roads in US/Canada

[stcptl]

GM’s next version of Super Cruise to be called Ultra Cruise will allow HANDS FREE driving on all paved roads in US and Canada. Will debut on 2023 Cadillac models next year.

This is similar to Tesla’s FSD (but hands free) and is a game changer IMO as far as autonomous tech that’s available to retail consumers.

GM Ultra Cruise

GM Ultra Cruise is an upcoming semi-autonomous driver assistance feature that will join GM’s lineup of hands-free advanced driver-assist systems on select models in 2023, with Cadillac being the first[...]

gmauthority.com

 

[JCannonTech]

UltraCruise has serious potential but I believe it is coming in 2023, not in 2023 model year cars. Hard to say what FSD beta looks like in well over a year from now but they may be comparable. UltraCruise is supposed to be capable of handling normal traffic patterns and lights but not more complex scenarios like roundabouts. It also, of course, won’t be anywhere but the US at launch.

My concern is that it is still only launching with the hope of having 2 million paved road miles. That’s only about 50% of US roads that would be covered, not all paved roads. Hopefully we get some more info soon!

 

[Sandor]

GM’s next version of Super Cruise to be called Ultra Cruise will allow HANDS FREE driving on all paved roads in US and Canada. Will debut on 2023 Cadillac models next year.

This is similar to Tesla’s FSD (but hands free) and is a game changer IMO as far as autonomous tech that’s available to retail consumers.

GM Ultra Cruise

GM Ultra Cruise is an upcoming semi-autonomous driver assistance feature that will join GM’s lineup of hands-free advanced driver-assist systems on select models in 2023, with Cadillac being the first[...]

gmauthority.com

"While the technology has been designed to ultimately enable hands-free driving in 95 percent of all driving scenarios, Ultra Cruise can eventually be used on every paved road in the United States and Canada. At launch, Ultra Cruise will cover more than 2 million miles of roads in the two countries, which includes city streets, subdivision streets and paved rural roads, in addition to highways."

If true that'd be over 60% of the US & Canada paved streets, but given that this is GM I'd strongly doubt. This is coming from a former owner of numerous GM/Cadillac cars; 2 years ago we were driving a DTS and an Escalade. Now Tesla 3 & Y.... Willing to offer odds on this bet even ...

Given that they are testing the Super Cruise on very very limited sample of streets right now, I feel pretty good that would be a safe bet

 

[stcptl]

UltraCruise has serious potential but I believe it is coming in 2023, not in 2023 model year cars. Hard to say what FSD beta looks like in well over a year from now but they may be comparable. UltraCruise is supposed to be capable of handling normal traffic patterns and lights but not more complex scenarios like roundabouts. It also, of course, won’t be anywhere but the US at launch.

My concern is that it is still only launching with the hope of having 2 million paved road miles. That’s only about 50% of US roads that would be covered, not all paved roads. Hopefully we get some more info soon!

It will launch with 2 or 3 million miles of paved roads but will expand to include all/most paved roads.

It will be interesting to see who gets there first but after all these years I have lost all faith in Elon’s FSD predictions and my concern with FSD is that the sensor suite will turn out to be inadequate. I mean we don’t even have a single radar anymore. Ultra Cruise will probably include LiDAR too in addition to radars and cameras.

 

[ninefiveone]

Always curious to see how many people think more sensor types is better despite all evidence to the contrary so far…

 

[stcptl]

Always curious to see how many people think more sensor types is better despite all evidence to the contrary so far…

What is this evidence?
Why is every company other than Tesla using radars and lidars? What’s more likely, that Waymo, Cruise/GM and everyone else have it right or that Elon, who has been promising coast to coast full self driving since 2016/2017 yet has to continuously upgrade the hardware to get there, is right? Overpromise, underdeliver.

 

[EVNow]

GM’s next version of Super Cruise to be called Ultra Cruise will allow HANDS FREE driving on all paved roads in US and Canada. Will debut on 2023 Cadillac models next year.

This is similar to Tesla’s FSD (but hands free) and is a game changer IMO as far as autonomous tech that’s available to retail consumers.

GM Ultra Cruise

GM Ultra Cruise is an upcoming semi-autonomous driver assistance feature that will join GM’s lineup of hands-free advanced driver-assist systems on select models in 2023, with Cadillac being the first[...]

gmauthority.com

Old news - already covered in the Progress thread.

 

[ninefiveone]

What is this evidence?
Why is every company other than Tesla using radars and lidars? What’s more likely, that Waymo, Cruise/GM and everyone else have it right or that Elon, who has been promising coast to coast full self driving since 2016/2017 yet has to continuously upgrade the hardware to get there, is right? Overpromise, underdeliver.

It’s the massive evidence of failure. By everyone.

Tesla’s failure to deliver is not evidence that the other approaches are right. It’s evidence that Tesla has failed to deliver.

The others’ failure to deliver is, like Tesla’s, evidence that their approach also failed to deliver.

The fact that multiple companies are attempting it with multiple sensors and failing just multiplies that evidence.

You’re positioning this as “either Elon is right or they are right.”

Right now the evidence is “no one is right.”

If you’re just interested in saying Elon is wrong… go ahead and say it. But this “well if it was wrong why would so many other companies be doing it” argument fails the slightest bit of inspection. They are all failing at least as much as Elon has.

Don’t let your personal animus for some guy baffle you into thinking GM is a secret software powerhouse that everyone has overlooked.

 

[stcptl]

It’s the massive evidence of failure. By everyone.

Tesla’s failure to deliver is not evidence that the other approaches are right. It’s evidence that Tesla has failed to deliver.

The others’ failure to deliver is, like Tesla’s, evidence that their approach also failed to deliver.

The fact that multiple companies are attempting it with multiple sensors and failing just multiplies that evidence.

You’re positioning this as “either Elon is right or they are right.”

Right now the evidence is “no one is right.”

If you’re just interested in saying Elon is wrong… go ahead and say it. But this “well if it was wrong why would so many other companies be doing it” argument fails the slightest bit of inspection. They are all failing at least as much as Elon has.

Don’t let your personal animus for some guy baffle you into thinking GM is a secret software powerhouse that everyone has overlooked.

I have no animosity towards Elon. To the contrary, he has achieved A LOT. But he has been wrong about so many things, least of all his timelines, self driving predictions and the capabilities of past hardware/sensors. If I remember correctly, he even claimed AP1 would allow automatic lane changes. Using what sensors? Low speed ultrasonic sensors? AP1 didn’t even have side cameras, let alone radars. Claims like that are downright nonsensical IMO.

And that’s not really evidence as none of those others said they would have self driving vehicles in 2017/18/19/20/21 or claimed that their sensors were fully capable of L5, let alone sold such vapor ware to hundreds of thousands. And we don’t know for sure how far along they really are. Some of them are already doing limited real world self driving ridesharing. I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of years from now, Apple,
Waymo, GM Cruise etc start selling L4 vehicles and/or deploying large scale robotaxis. GM’s new Ultra Cruise is essentially supervised self driving. It’s like FSD, except GM is not going to beta test it on their customers.

Also, as a lay person, at a conceptual level, how can cameras alone be sufficient for L5 or even L4? What if the cameras are blocked even if for a brief moment while the car is self driving at highway speeds? There isn’t even a cleaning mechanism or washers. What if the cameras are blinded by fog, snow, slush etc? There are million what if scenarios that could render cameras alone inadequate. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Waymo or Cruise getting there first and Tesla having to revisit their sensor choices. Elon has disappointed for too long on this front.

 

[ninefiveone]

Ah I see. It can be a tough subject to get on top of. In situations like that one might use reputation as a proxy to assess expertise, progress, and potential.

If you feel apple, GM, waymo etc have reputations you trust, that’s your prerogative.

I look at all the activity on the ground, and can’t come to the same conclusion you do.

 

[Todd Burch]

GM’s next version of Super Cruise to be called Ultra Cruise will allow HANDS FREE driving on all paved roads in US and Canada. Will debut on 2023 Cadillac models next year.

This is similar to Tesla’s FSD (but hands free) and is a game changer IMO as far as autonomous tech that’s available to retail consumers.

GM Ultra Cruise

GM Ultra Cruise is an upcoming semi-autonomous driver assistance feature that will join GM’s lineup of hands-free advanced driver-assist systems on select models in 2023, with Cadillac being the first[...]

gmauthority.com

Do you really believe this? Honestly?

I believe this just as much as I believe GM is leading the way in electric vehicles.

Yes, GM is going to just come out of the blue and say “Surprise! We just solved the hardest problem humanity’s ever tried to tackle without anyone even knowing we were really playing the game!”

And I’m sure they’ll do it with an affordable car and an affordable sensor suite too!

 

[stcptl]

Do you really believe this? Honestly?

I believe this just as much as I believe GM is leading the way in electric vehicles.

Yes, GM is going to just come out of the blue and say “Surprise! We just solved the hardest problem humanity’s ever tried to tackle without anyone even knowing we were really playing the game!”

I’m looking at track record. GM promised Super Cruise, they delivered it works well in the limited settings it is allowed.

So I do believe that when GM officially launches ultra cruise which is similar to Tesla’s FSD, they would have tested the technology and it will work well.

Tesla has lost all credibility on autonomous tech, upgrading computers and sensors (cameras) multiple times after the CEO stated all cars had L5 capable hardware, promising coast to coast self driving by year end since 2017, promising features beyond the capability of sensors (auto lane changes on AP1 ultrasonic sensors).

So my trust and distrust is based on evidence, limited as it is.

As for Google or Apple, they can throw more $$$ at it than anyone else, and, that’s as important a metric as any to me as a non-techie. And if someone beats them to it, they can just buy them.

 

[Todd Burch]

As for Google or Apple, they can throw more $$$ at it than anyone else, and, that’s as important a metric as any to me as a non-techie. And if someone beats them to it, they can just buy them.

As a self-described non-techie, now I understand why you believe it, and why you believe throwing more money at a problem can solve it. If you were a software developer or understood how AI works, you’d probably better understand why GM’s claim is laughable.

But that’s fine, we’ll see where GM is in two years. The proof will be in the pudding.

 

[stcptl]

As a self-described non-techie, now I understand why you believe it, and why you believe throwing more money at a problem can solve it. If you were a software developer or understood how AI works, you’d probably better understand why GM’s claim is laughable.

But that’s fine, we’ll see where GM is in two years. The proof will be in the pudding.

How would you explain it to a non-techie? I’m open to sound explanations. I have a basic understanding of AI/NN.
And is there reason to believe Tesla will get there first? Is it the large amount of data the fleet is pumping out?

 

[eli_]

Also, as a lay person, at a conceptual level, how can cameras alone be sufficient for L5 or even L4? What if the cameras are blocked even if for a brief moment while the car is self driving at highway speeds? There isn’t even a cleaning mechanism or washers. What if the cameras are blinded by fog, snow, slush etc? There are million what if scenarios that could render cameras alone inadequate. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Waymo or Cruise getting there first and Tesla having to revisit their sensor choices. Elon has disappointed for too long on this front.

There's no getting around that you need cameras to drive, it doesn't matter what other sensors you have on there. You need vision to read all the road markings and lights and so forth. The number of cameras, and the positioning, lens, image sensors, etc are all up for debate, but you always need working cameras or it's game over.

Waymo and Cruise have 360 degree Lidar because they use it to localize the car on HD Maps. That's where the Lidar requirement comes from, it's not on there as some sort of backup sensor. They need working cameras and they need working Lidar or the system is unhealthy and stops.

 

[stcptl]

There's no getting around that you need cameras to drive, it doesn't matter what other sensors you have on there. You need vision to read all the road markings and lights and so forth. The number of cameras, and the positioning, lens, sensors, etc are all up for debate, but you always need working cameras or it's game over.

Waymo and Cruise have 360 degree Lidar because they use it to localize the car on HD Maps. That's where the Lidar requirement comes from, it's not on there as some sort of backup sensor. They need working cameras and they need working Lidar or the system is unhealthy and stops.

Of course you need cameras, those are necessary. I’m just not sure they are sufficient especially without addressing potential visibility problems.

 

[eli_]

Of course you need cameras, those are necessary. I’m just not sure they are sufficient especially without addressing potential visibility problems.

Well you're asking what happens if they're blocked/blinded, you need cameras to drive no matter what.. It's a question of system health and reliability. Cameras are the primary sensor for driving, maybe you can continue driving if 1 or 2 are blocked, but it depends on which ones. If you lose all your forward-facing cameras you're kind of boned, you wouldn't be able to even pull over safely. You'd have to just stop the vehicle in traffic. If you lose one side or rear-facing camera, maybe you can still drive in a degraded state temporarily and hope they clear up.

 

[Huskyf]

I have no animosity towards Elon. To the contrary, he has achieved A LOT. But he has been wrong about so many things, least of all his timelines, self driving predictions and the capabilities of past hardware/sensors. If I remember correctly, he even claimed AP1 would allow automatic lane changes. Using what sensors? Low speed ultrasonic sensors? AP1 didn’t even have side cameras, let alone radars. Claims like that are downright nonsensical IMO.

And that’s not really evidence as none of those others said they would have self driving vehicles in 2017/18/19/20/21 or claimed that their sensors were fully capable of L5, let alone sold such vapor ware to hundreds of thousands. And we don’t know for sure how far along they really are. Some of them are already doing limited real world self driving ridesharing. I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of years from now, Apple,
Waymo, GM Cruise etc start selling L4 vehicles and/or deploying large scale robotaxis. GM’s new Ultra Cruise is essentially supervised self driving. It’s like FSD, except GM is not going to beta test it on their customers.

Also, as a lay person, at a conceptual level, how can cameras alone be sufficient for L5 or even L4? What if the cameras are blocked even if for a brief moment while the car is self driving at highway speeds? There isn’t even a cleaning mechanism or washers. What if the cameras are blinded by fog, snow, slush etc? There are million what if scenarios that could render cameras alone inadequate. If I were a betting man, I would bet on Waymo or Cruise getting there first and Tesla having to revisit their sensor choices. Elon has disappointed for too long on this front.

Sorry but when you drive your car did you park your car on the back side of the road because it's snow or dense fog did you use a lidar laser to see on the fog ??? No
Why cameras only not possible an humain had no lidar or radar on it just is eyes. Cameras on front is cleaning with wiper and it's heating when frost / rear camera is heating and cameras on the turn signal is heating also why you want MORE !

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo and Cruise have 360 degree Lidar because they use it to localize the car on HD Maps. That's where the Lidar requirement comes from, it's not on there as some sort of backup sensor. They need working cameras and they need working Lidar or the system is unhealthy and stops.

Not quite. Yes, Waymo and Cruise need cameras but Waymo and Cruise also use 360 lidar to detect, track and classify cars, pedestrians, cyclists etc... Lidar is used for a lot more than just localization on a HD map. They use lidar as a complement to camera vision because there are cases where lidar is better than cameras, for example, driving into the sun where cameras can get blinded or driving at night in pitch darkness where cameras may see poorly but in both these cases, lidar will still work great.

In the top part of the video, we see what the new Waymo lidar sees. We see that the Waymo lidar is able to see objects like cars and pedestrians with great accuracy even at night:

Note around the 1 mn mark, lidar sees an occluded worker who comes out from behind a parked car at night.

 

[Bladerskb]

Not quite. Yes, Waymo and Cruise need cameras but Waymo and Cruise also use 360 lidar to detect, track and classify cars, pedestrians, cyclists etc... Lidar is used for a lot more than just localization on a HD map. They use lidar as a complement to camera vision because there are cases where lidar is better than cameras, for example, driving into the sun where cameras can get blinded or driving at night in pitch darkness where cameras may see poorly but in both these cases, lidar will still work great.

In the top part of the video, we see what the new Waymo lidar sees. We see that the Waymo lidar is able to see objects like cars and pedestrians with great accuracy even at night:

Note around the 1 mn mark, lidar sees an occluded worker who comes out from behind a parked car at night.

no matter how many times this is debunked. They keep repeating the same myth.
And people wonder why i have zero patience now.