What is your source for the LG Bolt cell density and Tesla $100 per kWh at pack level by 2020?
The only number I seen posted in direct reference to the new LG Chem cell was an estimate here of 200Wh/kg in the original breaking article interviewing the CEO Patil:
http://www.designnews.com/document....84,industry_auto,aid_274204&dfpLayout=article
Other forum estimates put it at 210Wh/kg from a Patil presentation about a 40% improvement vs the 2011 Volt cells:
Volt '11 had 150wh/kg. If we assume 40% improvement, we get about 210 wh/kg - close to the 220wh/kg, you are assuming.
So I'm expecting somewhere in the 200Wh/kg range (maybe slightly more) but it's not going to top ~250Wh/kg from the Model S pack since 2012.
The 90kWh pack cells are going to be similar to the ~268Wh/kg NCR18650GA (3.6V*3.5Ah / 47 g).
https://www.fasttech.com/product/2399300-authentic-sanyo-ncr18650ga-3-6v-3500mah
The 2016 Volt PHEV cells are supposed to be around 180 Wh per kg. Bolt cells would be tuned to be more energy dense but only 10% more dense? Whose making that claim?
I would have to ask for source or calculation of where you got 180Wh/kg for 2016 Volt.
JB Straubel said at a utility conference this summer that he would be disappointed if cell costs didn't drop to $100 by 2020, not pack costs.
Straubel never said "cell costs", he said this:
“I think most of the
targets that we see from the likes of
DoE or EIA are very much on the conservative side. And, you can sort of do the math on what a battery would have to cost, you know, for a vehicle that can travel 200 – 250 miles and still cost $35,000,” said Straubel, “but I think we would be disappointed if
battery costs were not in the
$100 dollar range [per kilowatt-hour] by the end of this decade, somewhere in this ballpark.”
http://www.hybridcars.com/tesla-projects-battery-costs-could-drop-to-100kwh-by-2020/
That talk was in the context of higher federal battery cost targets of
$125/kWh by 2020, which is a
pack level target, not a cell level target from slides I can find (page 4):
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f8/5_howell_b.pdf
Couple that with Elon's previous statement in 2014:
“I would be disappointed if it took us
10 years to get to a
$100/kWh pack.”
10 years is 2024. That points to $100/kWh pack in 2020 time frame, not a $100/kWh cell in that time frame.
http://www.torquenews.com/2250/elon-musk-s-most-important-yet-underrated-statement-not-be-ignored