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Go Tesla even at Risk of NEM 3?

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Looking to go solar. I have local installers who has provided quotes for a ~10.2kW system. They are using LG Neon R 425W panels, Enphase IQ8A microinverters and Tesla Powerwalls (on backorder). They've quoted me at $69K (pre tax credit) and have guaranteed that they would be able to get install and PTO done for me to be in NEM 2 and in 2022 to maximize tax credit.

Tesla has provided a quote for a larger 12kW system with 2 Powerwalls at $52K but there is a high chance that install/PTO won't be done until 2023 (lower 22% tax credit) and therefore at risk of having NEM 3 terms.

So, assuming $69K from local installer where I get 26% tax credit and NEM 2, it brings the 10.2kW system to $51K

Assuming $52K but 22% tax credit, it brings the 12kW system to $40K, a price difference of $11K, however there is a high chance, I'll have to pay the NEM 3 solar tax of $8/kW a month so I now have an extra $1.15K/year cost which would be ~10 years until the Tesla system and the local installer system match in cost, but I'll have to continue with the additional solar tax being under NEM 3.

So the question is, do I fork up the extra $ now to go with the local installer where I'll get a slightly smaller system (10.2kW vs 12kW) but is guaranteeing 26% and NEM 2 or go with Tesla being OK that I'll get the 22% and NEM 3 with a chance that a miracle happens and I get the 26% and NEM 2.
 
I don't think the risk is that bad. If NEM 3 is formally enacted, there will be some time to get in the NEM 2 queue and if you are not guaranteed NEM 2 for at least 15 years, you just cancel. The only problem is that then you end up with nothing but PG&E. :(

Also, I don't think I would accept a 3rd party solar quote over $5/W. That is $51,000 for 10.2kW of panels. That is still pretty high in my book, but I haven't done any quotes recently.
 
I don't think the risk is that bad. If NEM 3 is formally enacted, there will be some time to get in the NEM 2 queue and if you are not guaranteed NEM 2 for at least 15 years, you just cancel. The only problem is that then you end up with nothing but PG&E. :(

Also, I don't think I would accept a 3rd party solar quote over $5/W. That is $51,000 for 10.2kW of panels. That is still pretty high in my book, but I haven't done any quotes recently.

I think that ~$51k (post-FTC) does include PowerWalls. Still seems a bit high though. It's disappointing that $3/w isn't the norm.
 
I don't think the risk is that bad. If NEM 3 is formally enacted, there will be some time to get in the NEM 2 queue and if you are not guaranteed NEM 2 for at least 15 years, you just cancel. The only problem is that then you end up with nothing but PG&E. :(

Also, I don't think I would accept a 3rd party solar quote over $5/W. That is $51,000 for 10.2kW of panels. That is still pretty high in my book, but I haven't done any quotes recently.
Can’t remember the exact details of the first NEM3 proposal, but I thought the enactment period after approval was quite short, like 90 days. If the monthly per kw grid charge survives in any form, that’s a huge blow to any payback calculation.

Agree $5/watt for just PV is insane, but OP also references “powerwalls” in their post. Assuming two at a ~$20k cost that you’re likely to see from a third party installer, that’s ~$3/watt for the PV, which still seems high but is at least in the realm of reason.
 
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Can’t remember the exact details of the first NEM3 proposal, but I thought the enactment period after approval was quite short, like 90 days. If the monthly per kw grid charge survives in any form, that’s a huge blow to any payback calculation.

Agree $5/watt for just PV is insane, but OP also references “powerwalls” in their post. Assuming two at a ~$20k cost that you’re likely to see from a third party installer, that’s ~$3/watt for the PV, which still seems high but is at least in the realm of reason.
Ok, I read it wrong. I thought the other installer was solar only. If both quotes include 2 Powerwalls, then the price difference originally stated between Tesla and 3rd party is to be expected.
 
I think that ~$51k (post-FTC) does include PowerWalls. Still seems a bit high though. It's disappointing that $3/w isn't the norm.

Naw, man, according to the CPUC, the retail (fully loaded with installer profits, overhead, and permitting, etc) price people are paying for solar is only $2.59 per watt (before the ITC).

@HardHitter should tell his installer that the CPUC has already done the math and said consumers should be paying this rate table (it's in kW, so divide it by $1,000 to get to the cost per watt). Tell your installer if they can't match this, then they aren't ready for 2023.

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Table is from page 197 (of the PDF, or labeled as B1) of the CPUC NEM 3.0 proposed decision:

BTW, the above is sarcasm. I know there is no installer other than Tesla remotely near $2.59 per watt. But I am interested in hearing what the installer tells Hardhitter if he uses the CPUC's logic on a residential system price negotiation.
 
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I appreciate everyone's feedback here.

Yes, the numbers I'm giving you is comparing apples-to-applies of solar with 2 power walls. The only difference is Tesla is 12kW system and the local is 10.2kW.

It seems as though even with the 22% tax credit and NEM 3 risk being highly likely, the Tesla system still comes out ahead financially and will break even around 10+ years with the local installer.

Now, as a tech guy, is the technology of the local installer that superior (e.g. microinverters vs string, 425W efficient panels, etc.) to Tesla to make you go with it?
 
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Now, as a tech guy, is the technology of the local installer that superior (e.g. microinverters vs string, 425W efficient panels, etc.) to Tesla to make you go with it?
For us, yes. For us, the solar installation is about backup power for outages. It was a very important to us personally to have microinverters with a much, much longer MTBF/warranty, and the knowledge that if one failed, we would only be out a few percent of the system capacity. Single point failures are something that I try to avoid in backup systems. Being "Dead in the water" until such time that the vendor got around to shipping a 7.6kW inverter was not acceptable to me, because our system is first and foremost a backup system. Daily generation, and solar back feed to the grid are fringe benefits.

Everybody is different. If this is about ROI, definitely go with Tesla. If this is about getting the exact technology that you want or a more customized solution, along with handholding, go with a local vendor, i.e. YMMV. We went with a local vendor, and I have no regrets. They did great work, and were diligent about keeping the whole process on track.

All the best,

BG
 
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I agree with the post immediately above. Microinverters today are far more reliable than string inverters because if one fails, you only lose one panel worth of production. If you have trouble with a string inverter or any part of the string, you lose either a string (half to a quarter of production) or the whole inverter's production. You also get per-panel production data from micro-inverters that you cannot get from a string inverter. The only string inverter that can provide that detail is SolarEdge that uses optimizers for each panel. In that case, not only do you have the possible inverter failure, but you also have the possibility of optimizer failure.

However, micro-inverters do cost more. It's up to you whether it's worth it or not.
 
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I appreciate everyone's feedback here.

Yes, the numbers I'm giving you is comparing apples-to-applies of solar with 2 power walls. The only difference is Tesla is 12kW system and the local is 10.2kW.

It seems as though even with the 22% tax credit and NEM 3 risk being highly likely, the Tesla system still comes out ahead financially and will break even around 10+ years with the local installer.

Now, as a tech guy, is the technology of the local installer that superior (e.g. microinverters vs string, 425W efficient panels, etc.) to Tesla to make you go with it?
In addition to system size. Look at the guaranteed annual production numbers. I would compare those before system size. One of the most frequent questions on these forums is "Why I don't see xx kW peak on my system". And the bottom line is the only thing guaranteed is annual production.
 
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I believe I am going to move forward with a local installer. They quoted a 12kW system (30 400W Panasonic panels with IQ8M microinverters) and 2 power walls for $7K more than what Tesla quoted their 12kW system and 2 power walls. Based upon my research/reviews of this company, they seem to be on the ball with everything and I'm hoping it'll be a good experience and NEM 2 stays in place. Even by paying the $7K premium, if a guarantee I get the 26% ITC and Tesla is more likely at 22% ITC because of length of the process, then it reduces the premium down to only $3K.

So whether its $3K or $7K I think I'll be happy as long as the process goes smoothly. I'll also have microinverter technology instead of string for the system.
 
I believe I am going to move forward with a local installer. They quoted a 12kW system (30 400W Panasonic panels with IQ8M microinverters) and 2 power walls for $7K more than what Tesla quoted their 12kW system and 2 power walls. Based upon my research/reviews of this company, they seem to be on the ball with everything and I'm hoping it'll be a good experience and NEM 2 stays in place. Even by paying the $7K premium, if a guarantee I get the 26% ITC and Tesla is more likely at 22% ITC because of length of the process, then it reduces the premium down to only $3K.

So whether its $3K or $7K I think I'll be happy as long as the process goes smoothly. I'll also have microinverter technology instead of string for the system.
Given the same options, I would probably make the same decision. This is better than the 3rd party option in the first post. Hopefully the installer you've chosen has good reviews.
 
I believe I am going to move forward with a local installer. They quoted a 12kW system (30 400W Panasonic panels with IQ8M microinverters) and 2 power walls for $7K more than what Tesla quoted their 12kW system and 2 power walls. Based upon my research/reviews of this company, they seem to be on the ball with everything and I'm hoping it'll be a good experience and NEM 2 stays in place. Even by paying the $7K premium, if a guarantee I get the 26% ITC and Tesla is more likely at 22% ITC because of length of the process, then it reduces the premium down to only $3K.

So whether its $3K or $7K I think I'll be happy as long as the process goes smoothly. I'll also have microinverter technology instead of string for the system.

Yeah, I think we all went through this with our own installs, but it's also a bit unfair to compare Tesla with the local installer since you can't choose anything with Tesla and are stuck with their panels/inverters of whatever they choose. They can also cancel your install if they found something they didn't like and you may have already waited/wasted 2 months so far.

They do have good installs as well, but looking at your quotes, Tesla prices are not what they used to be anymore (sub/close to $2/W in the past). If the local installer broke out the cost of ESS/Solar and assuming the 2 powerwalls are like $27k, your panel install is around $2.66/W which is fine I think.

There are enough posts here about string inverters failing and the Solar Edge one has a 10 year warranty I believe. Does that mean in 10 years, you have to possibly buy another and in 20/25, that's another few thousand dollars? Just a pain and I don't think anyone will really miss the slightly higher cost in 20 years time.

NEM3.0 isn't worth the risk, but if they can retroactively change NEM1.0/2.0 already, I think the only real solution is just to cut from the grid. The more I read the other thread makes me think that's probably the way to go honestly. I'll just need 2 more batteries and a generator.
 
If you are seriously interested in going off grid, you might want to double check the noise and air quality regulations in your corner of the world. Many parts of California do not all generator use for anything other than emergency standby use for air quality reasons and some localities have ordnances that address generator use. There is also the small detail that many cities require grid connections. In my county off grid also means no permitting with all that goes with that for insurance. YMMV...