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Going on the record with my near term Performance Predictions and Prognostications

Discussion in 'Model S: Driving Dynamics' started by lolachampcar, Nov 2, 2015.

  1. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    Copied from another thread but I wanted to get my guess out there and hopefully add others' guesses as well to see who gets closest to the final dust settling result.

    I think the P90D was in the pipeline when Elon mentioned the OTA update that would provide performance not seen outside the factory pending engineering verification comment. The team determined that additional hardware was required thus the birth of the P85DL upgrade. The slight improvement of the current iteration of the P90DL over the P85D is likely a combination of the 90 (increased capacity, slightly better current sourcing capability from different chemistry, ???) and a small raise in power extraction from the battery. This would allow enough differentiation from the P85D to warrant shipping and the extra cost even knowing they were missing the 1/4 mile number.


    Fast forward to the MotorTrend piece and engineering has now properly proved the full P90DL concept thus the 2.6 sec 0-60 (beating the published spec ala P85 in its day) and making the 10.9 second 1/4 mile which is mind numbing for me. The thing that has me predicting an OTA upgrade for P90DL customers is that there is no way Tesla would have give MT access to a 10.9 second car if that same capability was not in the pipeline for existing customers. That would be begging for significant backlash.

    IF
    I am correct with the above, the P85DL SHOULD be an 11.1 second car with a 2.8 second 0-60. This is what I think Tesla is getting at when they mention the .2 second difference between the 90 and 85 DL. This level of difference would be consistent with Elon's comments that the move to 90 would not make much sense as it would not provide that much more performance for the cost of having to swap out the battery component.
     
  2. tstafford

    tstafford Member

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    There have been a ton of numbers floating around so please forgive me if I "misremember", but wouldn't 11.1 represent a 0.4 (or so) reduction in the P85D quarter mile time? That doesn't seem consistent with the current verbiage regarding the upgrade/deposit in the on-line store.
     
  3. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    It does not. To the letter, the upgrade should take an 11.6 second P85D (best number so far??) to an 11.4 and the 3.1 second 0-60 to 2.9. The numbers are somewhere in that range plus or minus a bit.

    If the MotorTrend capability is released to the production fleet, that would make the difference between the 85DL and 90DL .5 seconds in the 1/4 and .3 seconds in the 0-60. IMO, this is too large a gap to be explained by an increase in pack capacity from 85 to 90 KW-Hr and improvements in chemistry and electrode design for the 90 over the 85. This led me to speculate that the end P85DL performance numbers will be more like 11.1 in the 1/4 and 2.8 0-60.

    It's all just speculation but I am curious to see how close I get to the final results when all the releases and upgrades are done.
     
  4. sillydriver

    sillydriver Member

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    Lolachampcar! I offered some similar reasoning in response to a question in the thread I started with a long post the other day. The guess I offered is 11.2 for the P85DL vs. what I see is your 11.1. I agree with your 2.8 and I also came up with 4.5s 60 - 100.
     
  5. 1208

    1208 Active Member

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    Maybe tesla is waiting for everyone to get the Autopilot updates then release another software update, maybe in a weeks time the MT update will be released to Ludicrous people.
     
  6. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    I just wish they would stick to one way of measuring vehicles, preferably WITHOUT a 1 foot rollout. If they are quoting 0-60 times, it should really start at 0 and not one foot into a launch. This makes comparisons more meaningful especially when we are talking about low 1/10ths of a second. If they previously gave out figures without a rollout and now they are, it muddies the waters somewhat.

    I understand they want to be competitive with others who may employ a 1 foot rollout but I would much rather prefer when they give performance specs if they would just list the figures with and without a 1 foot rollout so there is no confusion about what the actual figures are.

    Having said all that the MotorTrend article specs are impressive but what would be most impressive is if those figures can be verified by a test by Consumer Reports, about the only source I trust to report the numbers as they are.
     
  7. 3mp_kwh

    3mp_kwh Member

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    I believe it. Unless software limited, or on the dark chance the $2,500 cost reduction is leaving something out, your numbers sound reasonable to me. When I think "why wouldn't Tesla software limit the P85D option", I conclude its just for relatively few P85D owners. Why would they? New buyers do not have the option to call it quits at a P85DL. They recently handed 85D owners a big gift, etc.


    I also still have a math problem with gaining only .2 seconds in the quarter, if you're going faster by .2 seconds, to 60mph. It implies a faster trap speed, at 60mph. So, you have this built-in advantage to carry. Otherwise, the 60-quarter acceleration would have to be made worse by this upgrade. No?


    Tesla's email specifically stated "early 2016" upgrades, west of California. It will be covered elsewhere, but this is outside of the "6 month" upgrade window, as I interpret it. How many people are not going to make a deposit before owner reports verify the upgrade results? This time, there is no claim to deliver upon, if the car only sliced down to 11.4. That's the situation I hope Tesla is thinking about, and I'd up Lola's gambit by predicting the 6 month limit will be expanded or reset to begin when updates are locally available.



    Times are reported with a roll-out, from MT, F&T and C&D. That is the basis of comparison, unless you are in some far-away place. Cleaning up "0-60", or providing an asterisked explanation of it actually being with a roll-out, is how Tesla is fitting in with the rest. A welcome change.
     
  8. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Doing it without rollout is to fit with international audiences. Using rollout is actually much easier for comparison in the US because that is how all the major car magazines do it and also how the numbers would be given at a drag strip (which is the primary place where people will be verifying the numbers). To get a 1/4 mile time without rollout would require a Vbox, which many people don't have (while many have access to drag strip).
     
  9. P85DEE

    P85DEE Active Member

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    #9 P85DEE, Nov 2, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
    Rollout is almost always used amongst American auto manufacturers when describing 0-60 times.

    I look at some of the comments in here on the 0-60 times of the P85D and there is an air about them that rollout amounts to shenanigans.

    The video below explains it well and may shed some light on rollout, no pun intended, for some who may be unclear about it. But this is what some of us have been up in arms about. There's really not much to it.

    The truth about 0-60 mph Times - Rollout and how it is used... - YouTube
     
  10. tstafford

    tstafford Member

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    Thank you. So if I read this correctly you are speculating that the P85DL will get some benefit from the upgrade and a separate, more significant, benefit from a software change. And more importantly that said software change cannot be applied to a P85D without the L.
     
  11. jpet

    jpet Jan P.

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    I also believe this to be correct. When the P85D was launched, the software was not ready for prime time either (remember torque sleep).

    When Ludicrous mode was launched, Elon said that the car would reach top speed 20% faster compared to Insane mode. We have yet to see this significant improvement and it might be very close to being released OTA to all cars that have the Ludicrous hardware. There's probably a lot of tweaking required in the various software controlled components to get an optimum result.
     
  12. jcoverton

    jcoverton Member

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    The MT article mentioned launch control which some people have interpreted as mistaken description of the MaxPower setting. Maybe the MT car had an option for launch control that allows the faster times. This could be provided in the suggested OTA update
     
  13. tstafford

    tstafford Member

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    What would launch control do in an electric car? My experience with launch control is that it gets the engine in the power band and then assists with traction. Seems to me that the MS already does all this at launch. But I might be missing something.
     
  14. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    The only thing it would do is eliminate the need to stomp on the gas. I imagine this procedure:

    1. Engage "Launch Mode!" on the display.
    2. Put your foot to the floor. Car goes nowhere. Brake is disengaged, but car is held in position by the motors if need be.
    3. One of the buttons on the steering wheel becomes a launch button. When you press it, the car accelerates at maximum possible rate.
    4. Whenever you release the accelerator, launch mode disengages.

    It doesn't do much except eliminate the possibility that you aren't stepping on the pedal fast enough. And perhaps it's a bit more forgiving on the traction control because you get slightly better performance with a bit of slip.
     
  15. jcoverton

    jcoverton Member

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    The accelerator is designed to respond in a very smooth and linear fashion. This provides the ability to creep forward slowly and smoothly control power at any speed. Launch control could reprogram the pedal for maximum acceleration. If you were stopped setting launch control would let the computer to know that you were wishing to get maximum acceleration. I have an electric golf cart which has a control that changes the response of the accelerator. In one position the cart creeps easily and has a limited max speed, in the other position the cart accelerates quickly to top speed. Reprogramming response and slip could get faster times.
     
  16. R.S

    R.S Member

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    Not really, it is all about power density. There are batteries out there, that would fit into the 85/90 pack, give 600kW continuously, but would have a capacity of 45 kWhs.
    We know the new pack has improved energy density, but its very little. Since they introduced it, I wondered why they would not wait for 10%, or even more. (Maybe because of the X, but still JUST 6%?)
    From Musks, and Straubels, comments we can assume that 6% is a very small step(Musk says an average of 5-7% a year, not 6% in 3 years), but maybe the power density improved a lot more. The Tesla website shows us 468 hp for the P85D and 532hp for the P85DL, because the torque stays the same, to a certain point, the ludicrous-additional-hp-acceleration, sets in, after the P85D reached its maximum power. Still the difference is a mere 0.2 seconds at the quarter mile.(it might be just a short power burst?) Now imagine how much more hp you would need to get to 10.9 seconds. There is no mention of the P90DL´s hp on the Tesla website, although we know it is more than the P85DL's, I wonder why?
     
  17. electrish

    electrish I Sing the Body Electric

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    This is not correct, according to several commenters here.
    Since currently the P85DL can't be ordered new, the quoted 532 hp are thought to be the P90DL's.
    Therefore, the P85DL is expected to fit somewhere in between 463 and 532 hp.
     
  18. sorka

    sorka Active Member

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    And if you take Tesla at face value, then 10% more power, which is what they're claiming for the P85DL would be 509 hp compared to the the P90DL's 532 hp.

    But then what happens to both when and *if* they download the software MT's ringer test car had?
     
  19. R.S

    R.S Member

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    Bildschirmfoto 2015-11-08 um 21.42.34.png
    (this is my first picture upload, so I hope it is readable) As we can see, or can't if I have been too stupid to upload, the Information clearly shows the P85D, not the P90D. And it shows hp ratings for some ludicrous car, but not the quarter mile time. The 10.9 seconds are only given for the P90D ludicrous update, in the design studio. We also know that 10.9 seconds has been achieved by at least some P90DLs and that it can't be achieved by a P85DL. Im not sure how much difference in hp you would need to get through the distance, that much faster, but since the torque stays the same up until a certain point, Im not sure a 14% increase in power is able to achieve that much difference. But this is still a lot of guessing, especially since no privat P90DL owner was able to match the published times. And its not given that they ever will. I personally hope there will be some patch, but time will tell.
     

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  20. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    You can't order a new P85DL. When you opt for Ludicrous you are forced to upgrade to the pack to a 90kWh one. So implicitly by saying "Ludicrous," it means the P90DL, not P85DL. You can try yourself by clicking through the order page.

    There is a separate page for the P85DL retrofit, where it says it will not get the same level of performance as a P90DL and estimates 10% more power than the P85D. As sorka did the math, that is 509 hp, not 532.
    http://shop.teslamotors.com/collections/model-s/products/model-s-ludicrous-mode-pre-order
     

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