Going Private - Date Predictions

[Vitold]

Before Y is shown. Probably February.

 

[neroden]

I will say that my father has convinced me to keep nearly all of my TSLA when it goes private (half my wealth), as well as all of my parents'.

I'm still cashing out of the IRA stock just because of the paperwork hassle, though.

 

[steve3]

Any predictions as to target "going private" date? Or perhaps whenever Elon Musk will reveal one in a tweet? I know a lot of us curious.

As a corollary, any estimates on shareholder date of record, based on previous experiences? (I may be fantasizing, hoping to sell half & exercise half my DITM calls closer to deal price)

 

[dw4ngg]

Bid for 20% above price as of a certain future date post-3Q would obliterate shorts.

Is a floating buy price legal?? Need a rich ass buyer though.... maybe 10%

 

[RDoc]

Between Thursday and Never:

 

[generalenthu]

My guess is Elon and the board will try to have the shareholder vote by end of October so that there's no need to do the Q3 quarterly report. After the shareholder vote passes, then it will probably take another 2-4 months to private.

I don't think it's possible to skip doing a q3 report. It's a requirement of the SEC. To skip it, TSLA must become a closely held stock with less than 2000 shareholders.

The penalties for not filing include delisting (though not the first penalty), which would be funny.

 

[neroden]

I don't think it's possible to skip doing a q3 report. It's a requirement of the SEC. To skip it, TSLA must become a closely held stock with less than 2000 shareholders.

The penalties for not filing include delisting (though not the first penalty), which would be funny.

This does raise the question as to how fast a voluntary delisting could go through. Possibly extremely fast. I don't think any of the rules anticipated delisting being *desirable*.

 

[strangecosmos]

I predict never

 

[neroden]

Ha. I'm going to be contrarian and predict 2021. Certainly, Musk has called off going private, but we now know how much he *wants* to. If he gets another opportunity to go private -- for instance, if the stock price is still suppressed by disinformation a year from now after Tesla's been reporting profits for a year -- will he take it?

I have ignored CEO intent at my peril in the past; there is one particular stock where I assumed the company would continue to do the sensible thing which they had been doing for years, and instead they practically wrecked the company pursuing the CEO's *desire*. I could have seen it if I'd been paying more attention to the CEO attitude. It wasn't a new CEO, either, it was the same one who'd been CEO for a decade.

I think every investor in SpaceX invests knowing the risk that Musk will blow literally all their profits on his quixotic Mars colonization project. Everyone in Tesla stock knows that Tesla will prioritize "ending fossil fuel use" over "making profits" and will only make as mch profit as needed to complete the mission. We now also know that Musk has an itch to get off the public stock markets and will probably keep trying to pursue this as opportunities arise. It's worth remembering.

 

[voip-ninja]

I predict never

We have a winner

 

[strangecosmos]

I have ignored CEO intent at my peril in the past; there is one particular stock where I assumed the company would continue to do the sensible thing which they had been doing for years, and instead they practically wrecked the company pursuing the CEO's *desire*. I could have seen it if I'd been paying more attention to the CEO attitude. It wasn't a new CEO, either, it was the same one who'd been CEO for a decade.

What company was that?

 

[Vitold]

Does anyone find abrupt end to the discovery surprising? Someone decided to put a quick end to it and I think we can be pretty sure it was not Elon.