Lifelong Chicagoan here, fully aware of the struggles of winter driving, but still going with the first production RWD model as soon I'm offered to configure.
I was originally planning on waiting for the AWD dual motor, but that was when I thought the wait would potentially be spring '18. My delivery estimates AWD Aug-Oct '18 for me, and I can't wait that long. My wife & I have been sharing an ICE car for a few years now. When we lived downtown in the city, sharing 1 car was very manageable. Having recently moved a bit outside the city, the need for a 2nd car has really increased. So the sooner we take delivery of the M3 the better.
Plus I've convinced myself to pass on waiting for AWD by many similar previous posts. Taking advantage of the full tax credit will be very helpful to us affording the M3. Plus, the LR AWD version without the full tax credit probably puts affordability into question. Also, the car we currently share & will continue to have is an AWD Mazda CX-5, so fortunately for us, on the days the snow is really bad, we have an AWD option.
I'm hoping the RWD isn't terrible in the snow, as I've read in other threads regarding the MS RWD. Also thinking I could always trade up in a few years for better performance if the AWD is as kick ass as I think it'll be.