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Goldman Says Model X "Prototype" at Detroit Auto Show

Discussion in 'Model X' started by AnOutsider, Sep 19, 2014.

  1. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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  2. gavine

    gavine Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast

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    I think I remember Elon saying that the actual Model X was going to look better than the prototype. One of his pet peeves, apparently, is when car companies show an awesome prototype and then the final product is a disappointment. I have a feeling we are going to be pleasantly surprised when we see the production version.
     
  3. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    That's just it. If it's being shown in January, it should NOT be a prototype, but a production car (beta at worse).
     
  4. PopSmith

    PopSmith Saving for a Model 3

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    Maybe by prototype they mean "Beta". :wink:
     
  5. Barry

    Barry Member

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    A prototype of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) next model, the Model X, will likely be unveiled at the Detroit auto show, analyts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday. The analysts visited the factory in Fremont, Calif. recently but didn't get to see the prototype of the SUV. The car will have a dual motor all-wheel drive feature, which points to "a superior driving experience for owners," but will add about $1,200 to the price, Goldman said. The Detroit auto show takes place in late January, with previews for the press starting Jan. 12. -Claudia Assis; 415-439-6400; [email protected]

    Only $1200 more for the AWD?!
     
  6. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    In Tesla terminology, I think (a) you're correct that that was a "prototype" at the "reveals" and (b) we'll be seeing "alphas" next.

    "Analysts" don't understand (or "don't faithfully report") anything other than "shipped car" vs. "other" and for "other" they use words like prototype, alpha, beta, test, etc.
     
  7. gavine

    gavine Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast

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    One more term we forgot...."concept car"
     
  8. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Seriously, at that price I'll get a spare and a third motor to spin it. Can't imagine it's not a lot more. At $1,200, when they offer it on Model S, it will be as popular as the pano roof (meaning 80% uptake).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Seriously, at that price I'll get a spare and a third motor to spin it. Can't imagine it's not a lot more. At $1,200, when they offer it on Model S, it will be as popular as the pano roof (meaning 80% uptake).
     
  9. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    The word "prototype" is often used in a very loose sense. In this case I think what could be meant is a "production prototype", meaning an X that looks like what will actually come off the production line when the car goes on sale.

    But really the writer is just guessing, they don't know for sure.
     
  10. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    Elon Musk did say in a Q and A that he expected the Model X to cost a low single digit percentage over the Model S because of the AWD. I was thinking about 4% when he said it, but at $1200 that is less than 2% over todays base Model S. Very good news if it turns out to be true. I suspect the final average price people pay, though, will have a lot more to do with how they price and package the options than the cost of the AWD system. The cost for the Model S options have sky rocketed since they started taking Model X reservations. Still, no one can complain about a $1200 increase in the price for AWD.
     
  11. tom66

    tom66 Member

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    My bet, AWD is a $3,000~5,000 option.
    It makes no sense to have some lights cost $1,000, and AWD (which requires significantly more power electronics, an additional motor, a differential, and gearbox) cost only $200 more.
     
  12. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Depends on how the AWD is set up, I'd think. If they split the power between the front and rear they wouldn't need much more total cost in the power electronics, and that's where the key costs would be.
     
  13. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    Anyone think that the Goldman speculation is bogus?

    As far as I can remember, Tesla always hosts its own events for major announcements: Tesla unveiled the Model S Beta at Fremont in late 2011. The Model X concept, Superchargers, and Battery Swap were all demonstrated at special Tesla events. The only announcement I can remember from an auto show was when Tesla revealed ahead of the Q4 '13 conference that they beat projections for the end of 2013.

    Company statements indicated that the Alpha stage would last about 3 months, and we know from the SEC 10-Q form that Tesla had drivable Alphas as of 9 August 2014. 9 Sept = Month1, 9 Oct = Month2, 9 Nov = Month3 My best guess is therefore a Beta reveal in early December... I suspect that reservation holders will be receiving invitations in 7-8 weeks for a special event!
     
  14. de704

    de704 XP268

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    Is it just me or should they be delivering the first cars before then. Like in December.

    I guess this is code for the "first Model X's" will be delayed.
     
  15. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    AWD is not an option on Model X. It is standard. The cost of the AWD system is only brought up to explain possible price differences between the Model S and the Model X.
     
  16. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    +1; And IMO there is no way AWD S is only $1,200 more that current S. To get the most GP I believe when the AWD S is released it will only be available on the top of the line P85+ (at least initially) to help with GP margins AND it will add $5K minimum to the price of that vehicle.

    The X will be priced $5-10K above their model S counterparts. Three models 60;85 and p+85 (no P85). I could even see no 60 initially to keep margins up.
     
  17. tom66

    tom66 Member

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    I was talking about Model S having an AWD option.

    My guess: Falcon doors and AWD will make Model X base start at $75~80k and ramp up to $130~135k fully loaded.
     
  18. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    Another possibility is that Tesla makes AWD standard across the entire platform. That removes the need for compatibility with RWD, which simplifies things to an extent. As standard on the Model S, AWD shouldn't be very expensive ($1200 isn't far from the truth), but as an option, $3000-$5000 seems about right.
     
  19. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Straying from topic, but going forward having AWD standard on premium models like S and X would be one significant way to create the premium step-up from Model 3. I like this idea as it in theory increases performance in terms of top end speed and highway fuel economy.
     
  20. gavine

    gavine Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast

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    What happened to $15K for a replacement motor? Isn't Teslas's AWD a second motor to drive the front wheels? Using that logic tells me that AWD should be at least $15K. Otherwise, at replacing motor should be $1200 or less.
     

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