Good News?

[vangogh]

With the stockholder letter indicating....

"In Q4, we plan to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 vehicles" and

"We expect our average vehicle sales price to increase slightly in Q4 with more deliveries of highly optioned Model X vehicles."

that they should be delivering at least a few hundred X's for this to be material....Hopefully the question will be answered soon...

 

[vangogh]

Nice.....Elon said several Hundred X's per week by the end of the year....it will be a merry Xmas...

 

[Macgaver]

Just later in the document you can see that ramp up is in Q1, compared to Q4 as he is saying since a while

it's a lot of words to just not answer precisely ... Which is clearly not a good news

 

[Marcus Adolfsson]

On the call Elon just said "Several hundred per week in December". Door seal and mono post remains challenging.

 

[vangogh]

Just later in the document you can see that ramp up is in Q1, compared to Q4 as he is saying since a while

it's a lot of words to just not answer precisely ... Which is clearly not a good news

Listen to the earnings call...Specifically...several hundred X's per week by the end of the year....YEAH

 

[Marcus Adolfsson]

Has production of Model X actually started?


Elon: A car has several thousand components. The production can only move as fast as the slowest component. Those are that one that drives the rate. That makes production and ramp challenging. You don't know in advance what those issues are going to be.


The production will move as fast as the least lucky supplier we have in our network.


(He never answered the question)

 

[Lyon]

Has production of Model X actually started?


Elon: A car has several thousand components. The production can only move as fast as the slowest component. Those are that one that drives the rate. That makes production and ramp challenging. You don't know in advance what those issues are going to be.


The production will move as fast as the least lucky supplier we have in our network.


(He never answered the question)

I noticed that, too. I expect they're building and stockpiling bodies in white and anything else they can in order to prime the production line as soon as possible. It's not like the've got space constraints.

 

[timf]

I noticed that, too. I expect they're building and stockpiling bodies in white and anything else they can in order to prime the production line as soon as possible. It's not like the've got space constraints.

I don't think there's any question they are doing that. Take a look at the photo of Model X bodies in production included in the shareholder letter.

 

[Lyon]

I don't think there's any question they are doing that. Take a look at the photo of Model X bodies in production included in the shareholder letter.

By golly, you're right. I didn't look at the pictures!

If they're really making 100s per week, my VIN 415 should be making it through the initial build phase soon.

Is it just me or is there a major disconnect between what we heard today and the fact that Sig 2 has no delivery info yet?

 

[Mark Z]

...is there a major disconnect between what we heard today and the fact that Sig 2 has no delivery info yet?

No disconnect at all. Until the issues Elon mentioned in the call are taken care of, how can they offer delivery info?

(I can't complain, my X is in "paint" today according to the DS. That sounds like progress to me. But the DS also mentioned that no delivery date is known at this time.)

 

[Aljohn]

The suggestion was the seats as the "main" challenge. I would suspect as Tesla builds cars, it is finishing them -- less seats. Recall the new seats for the Model S. That may be why they wanted all the Signature holders to order. That way they could build the entire car, and as seats are available, install and ship. That will get big numbers in December. Of course the picture could be from the build of the Founders and Demo's for the launch.... which would make my theory go BUST.... poof.

 

[vangogh]

No disconnect at all. Until the issues Elon mentioned in the call are taken care of, how can they offer delivery info?

(I can't complain, my X is in "paint" today according to the DS. That sounds like progress to me. But the DS also mentioned that no delivery date is known at this time.)

I'm guessing they are are lining them all up and will install the seats and door seals right before shipment....

 

[Mark Z]

I'm guessing they are are lining them all up and will install the seats and door seals right before shipment....

And I will guess that none of the final painted X bodies will go through final assembly line until those seats and seals are ready. IMHO, they are going to want to have the final assembly experts doing the job at the right place and the right time.

During a September tour, we saw the final assembly line workers installing parts on an offline Model X labeled "Training X". IMHO, they know the skills to complete the task when everything is available.

 

[wheresmyx?]

I find it ironic that Elon's "sculptural work of art" seats are the hold-up, when some of us just wanted functional, flat-folding second row seats. As a colleague used to say, "if the dogs want dog meat, then I'm going to give it to them." Message to EM: ruff, ruff!

 

[goneskiian]

I don't think there's any question they are doing that. Take a look at the photo of Model X bodies in production included in the shareholder letter.

Not to be negative Nancy but I count 6 X bodies in that photo. How many Founders' were there? ;-)

 

[1208]

I find it ironic that Elon's "sculptural work of art" seats are the hold-up, when some of us just wanted functional, flat-folding second row seats. As a colleague used to say, "if the dogs want dog meat, then I'm going to give it to them." Message to EM: ruff, ruff!
View attachment 100046

Snap.

 

[Trev Page]

Not to be negative Nancy but I count 6 X bodies in that photo. How many Founders' were there? ;-)

Funny, I was going to say the same thing...

 

[MrBoylan]

(I can't complain, my X is in "paint" today according to the DS. That sounds like progress to me. But the DS also mentioned that no delivery date is known at this time.)

Yay, progress! C'mon seats!

 

[Vitold]

Not to be negative Nancy but I count 6 X bodies in that photo. How many Founders' were there? ;-)

It's rather encouraging that Tesla was assembling only 6 SUVs and delivered all 6. That's 0% defect rate!

 

[electracity]

Has production of Model X actually started?


Elon: A car has several thousand components. The production can only move as fast as the slowest component. Those are that one that drives the rate. That makes production and ramp challenging. You don't know in advance what those issues are going to be.


The production will move as fast as the least lucky supplier we have in our network.


(He never answered the question)

I think they failed to finish developing a more complex second row, and what is being delivered is the compromise. There are not many other good explanations on why making some straightforward seating would be so troublesome. Another possibility is that the X has a new drive unit which has taken time to develop and test. Yet another possibility is that Tesla needed to concentrate on reaching 50,000 by building MS.

Missing a part from a supplier seems to be reaching for a benign explanation that doesn't reflect poorly on Tesla's ability to execute.

In the long run, not missing yearly production by a significant margin is probably the most important strategy.