Based on the Quarterly Tesla call Elon stated again current Tesla owners will get their Model 3's first. He also said 7% of the the current orderers are by current Tesla owners. It looks like there is an extremely good shot current Tesla owners will get their cars in 2017. Especially if you order a loaded Model 3. Unlike the Model X, the Model 3 will be a car which can be massed produced and will not have the complexity of the Model X. Based on this call my confidence level has grown that Tesla will meet these deadlines. On today's call they have moved the timeline up so rather than being able to produce 500,000 cars (Model S, X and 3's combined) from 2020 to 2018.