TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Good Shot Current Tesla Owner's Could Get Their Model 3 in 2017

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Darryl, May 4, 2016.

  1. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    505
    Based on the Quarterly Tesla call Elon stated again current Tesla owners will get their Model 3's first. He also said 7% of the the current orderers are by current Tesla owners. It looks like there is an extremely good shot current Tesla owners will get their cars in 2017. Especially if you order a loaded Model 3. Unlike the Model X, the Model 3 will be a car which can be massed produced and will not have the complexity of the Model X.

    Based on this call my confidence level has grown that Tesla will meet these deadlines. On today's call they have moved the timeline up so rather than being able to produce 500,000 cars (Model S, X and 3's combined) from 2020 to 2018.
     
  2. eSpiritIV

    eSpiritIV Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    58
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    BUY BUY BUY! :)
     
  3. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    505
    He also indicated Model 3 sales are up 45% year over year and if you buy a Model X or S before the launch of the Model 3 you will also get your Model 3 ahead of the masses. They are projecting a continued growth in the Model X and Model S markets. Where the Fremont plant along with the Gigafactory could produce a million cars a year it doesn't make sense from a distribution standpoint to transport these cars around the world as it eats into profitability. He thinks eventually they will have a plant on each continent with at least two in the United States.
     
  4. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2016
    Messages:
    536
    Location:
    Newport, RI
    Well, if this were true I would be very happy. I hadn't planned on getting my car until mid 2018 (east coast owner reserved first thing on 3/31) so anytime in 2017 would be great news.
     
  5. Xaff

    Xaff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Location:
    Nebraska
    He also said as of now, he roughly expects about 100,000 to 200,000 vehicles to be produced by the end of 2017 and even if you order a Model 3 now, you have a very high chance of getting one in 2018.
     
  6. Mktitan

    Mktitan New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2016
    Messages:
    2
    Location:
    Tampa, FL
    If 7% of orders are from current owners then that is about 28k model 3 based on 400,000 preorders. They estimated that they will deliver 100,000-200,000 M3 by the end of 2017. At those numbers you would think that a large number of non-employee, non-current owner M3 reservation holders would get their cars in 2017.
     
    • Like x 1
  7. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    1,020
    Location:
    Norcal
    What is not known (as least not that I've heard) is the number of Tesla/SpaceX employee orders that will be fulfilled, along with the 7% for current Tesla S/X owners, before any of us "regular folks" get ours. Nonetheless, it will still be a significant number of cars for the rest of us if the new production goals can be met.
     
  8. Xaff

    Xaff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Location:
    Nebraska
    Actually, Elon made it very clear that that amount of cars will be produced by end of 2017, not delivered. While not stated, one big reason of this is likely so more customers can take advantage of the federal tax credit.
     
  9. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    10,387
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    To be clear, I think most people consider the S and X to be "mass produced" vehicles. What I think Tesla is trying to convey is that the Model 3 was designed with a goal of optimizing ease of production.

    If Tesla can deliver 100K Model 3's by the end of 2017 I will be impressed, and surprised. If they can deliver 200K I will be shocked. Elon likes to set ambitious goals. Nothing wrong with that. But Tesla does not have a strong record of meeting those goals in the timeframes Elon wants, and he has admitted as such more than once, while saying that the goals do get met, eventually.

    In any case I am encourage that I may get my Model 3 before the end of 2017.
     
  10. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    505
    He said this only applies to current Tesla owners or if you order and take delivery of a S or X before the launch of the a Model 3 in the fall of 2017.
     
  11. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    505
    I thought it was funny he even mentioned the fact that this week was the first time since they started production they had a Model X go always through the production process without a problem.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. Xaff

    Xaff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2016
    Messages:
    53
    Location:
    Nebraska
    Are you sure? I may have missed it, but I was pretty sure he was referring to anyone that reserved the car now and not just future/current S and X owners.
     
  13. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    15,487
    Detail: IIRC, Elon wasn't the one that offered these stats.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    15,487
    Given your "stats", I would have predicted in mid-April that your Model 3 would be one of the first 25,000 delivered:
    1. 1.5 Roadster #425, "Very Orange", HPC, second owner, acquired 10/07/14, 29K miles
    2. Model S 85 ... Lacewood, ... took delivery 12/21/13, ...
    3. San Mateo, CA
    4. Model 3 reservation placed on April 1, 2016
     
  15. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    15,487
    My recollection matches Xaff's, but I've only listened to the call once (so far).
     
    • Like x 1
  16. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2016
    Messages:
    536
    Location:
    Newport, RI
    My recollection matches Xaff's also. He meant anyone who orders now would get by end of 2018 - not just current owners.
     
    • Like x 2

Share This Page