Based on the Quarterly Tesla call Elon stated again current Tesla owners will get their Model 3's first. He also said 7% of the the current orderers are by current Tesla owners. It looks like there is an extremely good shot current Tesla owners will get their cars in 2017. Especially if you order a loaded Model 3. Unlike the Model X, the Model 3 will be a car which can be massed produced and will not have the complexity of the Model X. Based on this call my confidence level has grown that Tesla will meet these deadlines. On today's call they have moved the timeline up so rather than being able to produce 500,000 cars (Model S, X and 3's combined) from 2020 to 2018.
He also indicated Model 3 sales are up 45% year over year and if you buy a Model X or S before the launch of the Model 3 you will also get your Model 3 ahead of the masses. They are projecting a continued growth in the Model X and Model S markets. Where the Fremont plant along with the Gigafactory could produce a million cars a year it doesn't make sense from a distribution standpoint to transport these cars around the world as it eats into profitability. He thinks eventually they will have a plant on each continent with at least two in the United States.
Well, if this were true I would be very happy. I hadn't planned on getting my car until mid 2018 (east coast owner reserved first thing on 3/31) so anytime in 2017 would be great news.
He also said as of now, he roughly expects about 100,000 to 200,000 vehicles to be produced by the end of 2017 and even if you order a Model 3 now, you have a very high chance of getting one in 2018.
If 7% of orders are from current owners then that is about 28k model 3 based on 400,000 preorders. They estimated that they will deliver 100,000-200,000 M3 by the end of 2017. At those numbers you would think that a large number of non-employee, non-current owner M3 reservation holders would get their cars in 2017.
What is not known (as least not that I've heard) is the number of Tesla/SpaceX employee orders that will be fulfilled, along with the 7% for current Tesla S/X owners, before any of us "regular folks" get ours. Nonetheless, it will still be a significant number of cars for the rest of us if the new production goals can be met.
Actually, Elon made it very clear that that amount of cars will be produced by end of 2017, not delivered. While not stated, one big reason of this is likely so more customers can take advantage of the federal tax credit.
To be clear, I think most people consider the S and X to be "mass produced" vehicles. What I think Tesla is trying to convey is that the Model 3 was designed with a goal of optimizing ease of production. If Tesla can deliver 100K Model 3's by the end of 2017 I will be impressed, and surprised. If they can deliver 200K I will be shocked. Elon likes to set ambitious goals. Nothing wrong with that. But Tesla does not have a strong record of meeting those goals in the timeframes Elon wants, and he has admitted as such more than once, while saying that the goals do get met, eventually. In any case I am encourage that I may get my Model 3 before the end of 2017.
He said this only applies to current Tesla owners or if you order and take delivery of a S or X before the launch of the a Model 3 in the fall of 2017.
I thought it was funny he even mentioned the fact that this week was the first time since they started production they had a Model X go always through the production process without a problem.
Are you sure? I may have missed it, but I was pretty sure he was referring to anyone that reserved the car now and not just future/current S and X owners.
Given your "stats", I would have predicted in mid-April that your Model 3 would be one of the first 25,000 delivered: 1.5 Roadster #425, "Very Orange", HPC, second owner, acquired 10/07/14, 29K miles Model S 85 ... Lacewood, ... took delivery 12/21/13, ... San Mateo, CA Model 3 reservation placed on April 1, 2016
My recollection matches Xaff's also. He meant anyone who orders now would get by end of 2018 - not just current owners.
