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Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by RobStark, Mar 24, 2015.
Nice China/Japan rivalry going on in that chart.
Japan is huge. Tesla isn't even there yet is it?
Interesting that France is just "F" on that graph. It's great to see the huge uptick in BEVs, though.
Three Stores and 6 Superchargers.
Can I get a "exponential growth pattern"! Hoot!
In case anyone was wondering, ROW is "Rest of World"...
Thanks. I was wondering. I said to myself, "Republic of ?????".
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And Toyota is betting against BEV. Dumb.
I don't believe that's actually the case. Toyota is betting that the short term is still hybrids and to a lesser extent, plug-in hybrids. They still sell a lot of pure ICE and they gets lots of government money as well as ZEV credits for the hydrogen program, so they are continuing with that. Maybe a hydrogen production breakthrough will happen at some point. They can afford to have many programs. I think they are strategically positioning behind everything, but calculating that BEVs are going to be minimally interesting until at least 2018 or so, which is true. They'll be ready to do BEVs with the 2nd or 3rd generation batteries after our current batteries. At the moment, they are still selling vast amounts of electric vehicles and batteries... just hybrids and PHEVs. Unfortunately, the boots on the ground sales people and marketing people have to sell cars today and that means selling against BEVs. I think this will damage their brand - I don't think they thought the brand damage through. Hydrogen just looks like they're messing with us.
What they have repeatedly said is that BEVs are fine for short city commutes. For standard longer range vehicles FCEV is the future.
Their PHEV Prius has 6 AER. Among the weakest if not the weakest out there.
I would call that betting against BEV. On top of that their anti-BEV marketing.
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Impressive and encouraging!
So this is the year we go over one MILLION cars globally.
Hopefully the rate just keeps going up.
Over 1 million BEV this year is a pretty easy call, which is a good thing. I was glancing at some of the numbers, though:
2012 to 2013 => looks like more than double
2013 to 2014 => 450,000/250,000 = 1.8
2014 to 2015 => 750,000/450,000 = 1.67
That's not quite exponential - it's slightly slower. We can speculate on limiting factors, but it will be most interesting to see what the trend is when the Model 3 becomes available. Even with Tesla having less than a 15% share of BEVs out there now, they're the only company that is "all-in" on the technology.