Green New Deal

[mspohr]

"The end of capitalism has begun"... yet some people here are getting so upset when I comment about "revolution that you won't get". Figures.

I think many posts here belong to r/latestagecapitalism . Capitalism (in some form) is here to stay for long, loong time. Get over it.

They said the same thing about feudalism.

 

[Mader Levap]

They said the same thing about feudalism.

Maybe you should look up why feudalism went away, when and how. It didn't happened overnight just because.

Capitalism (in some form) is here to stay for long, loong time. Get over it.

 

[nwdiver]

Capitalism (in some form) is here to stay for long, loong time. Get over it.

..... how is capitalism going to solve this?

Automation and machine learning means we have to redefine our economy. Get over it.

 

[Mader Levap]

..... how is capitalism going to solve this?
Automation and machine learning means we have to redefine our economy. Get over it.

I will take aside your nice weasel wording like "redefine our economy".

Progress of things like that is always overestimated and naively extrapolated in silly and sensationalistic ways. There were already multiple events like that that were predicted to make humans jobless, like invention of machines that can do job of people at all. Why THIS time it will totally happen, unlike others?

In near to medium future, I see only menial, repetive and uncreative tasks completely and successfully replaced by automation.

And there will be always classes of tasks that always will have intristic value by virtue of human doing it, even in far future. For example, human-created art will always be separate category than AI-created art. Other example would be some far-future luxury restaurant (where you actually need money to pay for service) with actual, living, human waiters.

End of capitalism in near to medium term? Forget it, it is just your wishful thinking.

 

[nwdiver]

And there will be always classes of tasks that always will have intristic value by virtue of human doing it,

Sure... but that's not even close to what's required to support the levels of consumption our economy requires. Self-driving trucks alone threaten ~2M 'high' paid trucking jobs. If we can only consume ~20% of what we're capable of producing because of automation that's a problem. How do we return more purchasing power to consumers if we keep income and labor locked together?

How much longer do you think this trend can be sustained?

 

[mspohr]

Maybe you should look up why feudalism went away, when and how. It didn't happened overnight just because.

Capitalism (in some form) is here to stay for long, loong time. Get over it.

From TFA:
"As with the end of feudalism 500 years ago, capitalism’s replacement by postcapitalism will be accelerated by external shocks and shaped by the emergence of a new kind of human being. And it has started.

Postcapitalism is possible because of three major changes information technology has brought about in the past 25 years. First, it has reduced the need for work, blurred the edges between work and free time and loosened the relationship between work and wages. The coming wave of automation, currently stalled because our social infrastructure cannot bear the consequences, will hugely diminish the amount of work needed – not just to subsist but to provide a decent life for all."

 

[jerry33]

Sure... but that's not even close to what's required to support the levels of consumption our economy requires. Self-driving trucks alone threaten ~2M 'high' paid trucking jobs. If we can only consume ~20% of what we're capable of producing because of automation that's a problem. How do we return more purchasing power to consumers if we keep income and labor locked together?

According to what I've read about Conservative theory, it's not a problem--those with no income will just die off. The rest will be minimum wage service industry (e.g. waiters, chefs, etc.), and there will be a few wealthy families with everything else. You can see this being put in to practice today with healthcare being tied to employment, and the push to remove Medicare and Social Security. Once you're no longer working, you have no value in a capitalist society.

 

[nwdiver]

you have no value in a capitalist society.

They have value as a consumer. Apple is worth ~$1T because they sell 300M phones. It's hard to sell 300M phones if the economy decays and only 30M people can afford the phone. The economy now needs more consumers more than it needs workers.... how do we fix that problem? Automation is shifting the ratio from 2 consumers per worker to 5 then 10. Soon we'll need 100 consumers for every 1 worker. If you need to work to consume.... where do we get the other ~99 consumers to support the level of production our economy is capable of?

 

[mspohr]

According to what I've read about Conservative theory, it's not a problem--those with no income will just die off. The rest will be minimum wage service industry (e.g. waiters, chefs, etc.), and there will be a few wealthy families with everything else. You can see this being put in to practice today with healthcare being tied to employment, and the push to remove Medicare and Social Security. Once you're no longer working, you have no value in a capitalist society.

Of course, Conservative theory thinks everyone who is no longer essential will just quietly go away and die. Unfortunately, in the real world, the way it works is that all of those people who are no longer necessary will take to the ballot box, the streets, or the ramparts. Social and economic change will result.

 

[jerry33]

They have value as a consumer. Apple is worth ~$1T because they sell 300M phones. It's hard to sell 300M phones if the economy decays and only 30M people can afford the phone. The economy now needs more consumers more than it needs workers.... how do we fix that problem?

Well, if I knew how to do that, I wouldn't be sitting here hoping TSLA hits four figures.

 

[jerry33]

Of course, Conservative theory thinks everyone who is no longer essential will just quietly go away and die. Unfortunately, in the real world, the way it works is that all of those people who are no longer necessary will take to the ballot box, the streets, or the ramparts. Social and economic change will result.

At least, when they can and are not prevented from effective voting by gerrymandering (which is now just fine according the Supreme Court), or being struck from the voter lists, or being unable to get to the polls. (Texas introduced a new law that says you can't bus folks to the polls. Only three people are allowed in any car to go voting). Or having no cords for the voting machines, etc.

 

[nwdiver]

Well, if I knew how to do that, I wouldn't be sitting here hoping TSLA hits four figures.

You do or should know. It's called a universal basic income. Or citizens dividend. Just have to return purchasing power to consumers. It's not rocket science.

Mass investment/ownership in public companies would be the best way... but >50% of people are financially illiterate so... yeah... that ain't happening Plus a few bad moves and you're screwed forever.

 

[jerry33]

You do or should know. It's called a universal basic income. Or citizens dividend. Just have to return purchasing power to consumers. It's not rocket science.

Those work as long as inflation does eat them up the way it did minimum wage and Social Security. And in reverse Income Tax rates which now tax people that should be exempt (e.g. anyone with income less than $250,000 shouldn't be paying income tax).

 

[nwdiver]

Those work as long as inflation does eat them up the way it did minimum wage and Social Security.

Automation and machine learning may end up killing inflation. Inflation occurs because demand exceeds supply. That's more difficult to achieve when supply is effectively infinite.

 

[mspohr]

Those work as long as inflation does eat them up the way it did minimum wage and Social Security. And in reverse Income Tax rates which now tax people that should be exempt (e.g. anyone with income less than $250,000 shouldn't be paying income tax).

Easy enough to index UBI and minimum wage for inflation (as well as taxes on the rich to pay for it).
Hard for politicians who are beholden to the rich to do this, however.
When voting doesn't work, the next steps are taking to the streets and the ramparts. It can happen here. The rich understand that you need to bribe the masses with bread and circuses to keep them at bay.

 

[jerry33]

Automation and machine learning may end up killing inflation. Inflation occurs because demand exceeds supply. That's more difficult to achieve when supply is effectively infinite.

If it kills inflation, it will also kill capitalism because an infinite supply means there is no scarcity, which is how capitalism is supported. A limited supply means competition among purchasers and allows capitalists to create profit.

 

[nwdiver]

If it kills inflation, it will also kill capitalism because an infinite supply means there is no scarcity, which is how capitalism is supported. A limited supply means competition among purchasers and allows capitalists to create profit.

I think you're starting to see the 'problem'....

 

[jerry33]

Easy enough to index UBI and minimum wage for inflation (as well as taxes on the rich to pay for it).
Hard for politicians who are beholden to the rich to do this, however.
When voting doesn't work, the next steps are taking to the streets and the ramparts. It can happen here. The rich understand that you need to bribe the masses with bread and circuses to keep them at bay.

Do they need to bribe the masses anymore? There is already an ICE to expel certain segments of the population, and there appears to be no effective opposition. Each time one segment is successfully expelled by ICE, they will move on to the next. A pretty grim picture is painted.

Citizens have no defense because there won't be any hand to hand combat, drones will just target your house if you resist.

And most people won't think this is bad because the last thirty years have been spent undermining the educational system, so people don't trust the schools and do home schooling.

 

[mspohr]

I think you're starting to see the 'problem'....

A good book which explores this "problem" in a sci-fi setting is "Walkaway" by Cory Doctorow.
Walkaway | Cory Doctorow's craphound.com

 

[mspohr]

Do they need to bribe the masses anymore? There is already an ICE to expel certain segments of the population, and there appears to be no effective opposition. Each time one segment is successfully expelled by ICE, they will move on to the next. A pretty grim picture is painted.

Citizens have no defense because there won't be any hand to hand combat, drones will just target your house if you resist.

And most people won't think this is bad because the last thirty years have been spent undermining the educational system, so people don't trust the schools and do home schooling.

I think that current events in Hong Kong show a possible path.