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Green New Deal

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by mspohr, Dec 14, 2018.

  1. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    This is not unprecedented. 40% of people worked on farms in 1900, and that went down to 1%.

    Losing 10M jobs to automation, and another 3M in the energy sector over 10 years?? 9% of the labor force? So if 25% of them retire over 10 years, and 25% find new jobs, unemployment would rise from 3.7% to 8%. I don't see how this is something to get excited about.

    And since this is all due to increased productivity (same economic output with less labor), we could shrink the labor force by those 13M jobs and have the same economic output - perhaps people would retire early. Or, the same number of people could be employed, but work 35 hour weeks for the same pay instead of 40 hour weeks.

    Increased productivity is a good thing.
     
  2. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Poor guy. Yes the rich can lose money, which usually means they are less rich, not exactly struggling.
     
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  3. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Wealth equity addresses most if not all of those issues.
     
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  4. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    Ok, then doesn't AOC call it the Wealth Equity New Deal, and say it is the solution to all our problems?
     
  5. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Just to annoy you.
     
  6. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    #1686 nwdiver, Sep 13, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
    ??? Jobs don't retire. People retire and are born so we need MORE jobs every year to keep unemployment from rising.

    And this is only the beginning. There are very few things humans do that machines won't soon be able to do better. What's your solution? We can't all be fancy restaurant hosts. For 1 thing people that host at fancy restaurants usually can't afford to frequent fancy restaurants....


    Only if there's a consumer base to purchase your increased production.... hard to purchase anything if you don't have an income because you don't have a job because of increased productivity. Are you starting to see the paradox we're building? So how do we increase productivity without eroding the consumer base?




    There are two things need to address 10 years ago. Automation exploding wealth inequality pushing us toward an economic collapse circa 1929 and climate change. The GND addresses both because you can't fix one without fixing the other.
     
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  7. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    The 2008 financial disaster is illustrative. Yes, some of the wealthy did lose some money. However, lots of the not wealthy lost everything, house, job, etc
     
  8. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2020: Drain the Sewer

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    I see the problem but I don't see the solution as free money. That would seem to just devalue the currency. I think (with a lot of uncertainty) that the answer is a profilgate service economy. I have been renovating my home and it is really apparent that materials are cheap but hired labor is 10x the cost of the materials/products. The hired labor has some experience to justify their rates but any inept Schmoe like me with youtube, patience, and a willingness to do the first couple of jobs poorly until the work is ~ competent can DIY a lot. I'll guess that the working socio-econmic classes will stratify by how much they hire out and how much they DIY.
     
  9. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    Here's the fun thing about inflation. It only happens when demand exceeds supply. With automation this is increasingly impossible. Our production ability could soon have a limit far higher than societies ability to consume. If you have 2 people living in your home and have 2 EVs you're far less likely to need/want a 3rd. This is one of the reasons wealth pools at the top. I believe it was Robert Reich that said 'The problem with the wealthy isn't that they have too much money... it's that they spend too little.'
     
  10. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    Relax. The sky is not falling. Buggy whip workers did not starve. Farm workers did not starve. Hand weavers did not starve.
     
  11. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    That is what the wealthy are counting on. Then they can buy up the assets for peanuts, and make even more when the boom hits again.
     
  12. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    The good thing about a market-driven economy (vs a government-driven centrally planned economy) is it produces what the consumer wants. It is very adaptive to changing needs.
    Losing 100,000 "old" jobs a month is no big deal - they will be replaced with new jobs. The "born" will not be oil drillers - they will be windmill maintainers. They won't be line workers, they will be robot programmers and maintainers. There will be new industries created that will be employers - like the social media industry that did not exist 15 years ago. I'm sure we can count on government to need more and more workers every year, no matter what the economy does.

    Looks at the millions of people replaced with computers. We seemed to have gotten through that ok.
     
  13. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    That was criminal. People should have gone to jail for that.

    Encouraging people with little money to have highly leveraged real estate investments was criminal. Everyone was happy when the investment in a house worked out - not so happy when the investments lost money.
     
  14. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    How does it create a consumer with purchasing power when a machine can do the same job cheaper and more effectively. Industry 4.0 is the industrial revolution on Meth. Employment needs are going to fall in all sectors at once because machine learning improves efficiency everywhere. There is no safe harbor like there was for people making buggy whips.

    New jobs are not being created faster...

    [​IMG]
     
  15. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    You mean a machine like a weaving machine? Combine? Cotton gin? Computer?

    Industrial Revolution - Wikipedia

    Maybe the same number of workers will be needed, but they will get 6 weeks vacation a year instead of 2. They will get paid family leave. Work 4 day weeks.
     
  16. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    Yep... now take that effect and multiply by infinity....

    Think about it... what job do you think is same from being automated with current trends? There aren’t many. Certainly not enough to provide purchasing power sufficient to consume the increased output.
     
  17. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    There are a few ways to do this. Some are more ethical than others.
    There's the conservative way: Just kill off all the poor people and anyone with a chronic condition such as diabetes.
    There's a socialist way: Every human deserves to be educated, have healthcare, clothing, food, and shelter paid for by taxes. (e.g. each robot needs to support each human it replaces.)
    There's the sci-fi way: Colonize other planets in other solar systems.
    I'm sure you can think of more.
     
  18. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    I'm sure that is what they said about the computer. It is going to change everything - all at the same time. And it did.

    So are robots. So is machine learning. It is all good.
     
  19. tes-s

    tes-s Supporting Member

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    Great in theory. History says not so great in practice.

    It is nice when all people are equal - the problem is there always seem to be some people that are more equal than others.

    But just because something did not work in the past, does not mean it will not work in the future.
     
  20. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    That won’t work; It’s a ratio 1 worker to 100 consumers for example... We need consumers.
     

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