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Green New Deal

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UBI could be tied to education/training/counseling. That creates jobs for instructors, gives people some sort of purpose, and creates a better workforce. However I think we'll continue to see a problem with more people and fewer jobs needing humans so it's only a temporary solution. Covid has already shown that society can function with a lot less people working.
 
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UBI could be tied to education/training/counseling. That creates jobs for instructors, gives people some sort of purpose, and creates a better workforce. However I think we'll continue to see a problem with more people and fewer jobs needing humans so it's only a temporary solution. Covid has already shown that society can function with a lot less people working.
That's a fundamental problem. Currently we keep demanding that people work low wage meaningless jobs to avoid starving, etc.. This prevents them from getting an education, attending to their children and being good citizens.
Is this any way to run a society?
.
 
Congress is 'better poised than ever' to pass paid family leave bill, lawmakers say
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has said US Congress is in a “unique moment” and “better poised than ever” to pass a paid family and medical leave bill that would make the benefit permanently accessible to all American workers for the first time, as she and congresswoman Rosa DeLauro reintroduced the legislation on Friday.

Currently, the US is the only industrialised nation in the world not to have a national paid family and medical leave policy.
 
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I unfortunately also agree.

I worked for a couple of years at a Navajo hospital. That is a very complicated story but the negative side of free money is self evident.
It's always possible to find negative cases, but this is like the drug testing for welfare that happened a few years ago (Wisconsin I think), less than 1% found (actually it was less than the number of legislators that used drugs).
 
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Sure they can.

And that money has less value than toilet paper unless either it comes with a promise of likely future returns or it devalues the money present.
Yet that hasn't happened, inflation has remained very low.

It is conventional wisdom that printing more money causes inflation. This is why we are seeing so many warnings today of how Quantitative Easing I and II and the federal government’s deficit are about to lead to skyrocketing prices. The only problem is, it’s not true. That’s not how inflation works. Hence, this is yet another of the false alarms being raised (along with the need to balance the budget) that is preventing us from doing what we need to do to recover from the worse recession since the Great Depression.
Money Growth Does Not Cause Inflation!
 
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Modern Monetary Theory - Wikipedia.

Modern Monetary Theory or Modern Money Theory (MMT) is a heterodox[1][2][3][4][5][6] macroeconomic theory that describes currency as a public monopoly and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires.[7][8]

MMT is an alternative to mainstream macroeconomic theory. It has been criticized by well known economists but is claimed by its proponents to be more effective in describing the global economy in the years following the Great Recession of 2007–2009.[9][10]

MMT argues that governments create new money by using fiscal policy. According to advocates, the primary risk once the economy reaches full employment is inflation, which can be addressed by gathering taxes to reduce the spending capacity of the private sector.[11] MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity,[12] the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.
 
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Is there any hard data that says a UBI will not actually make peoples lives better?

There is the old UBI experiment in Manitoba in the 1970s:

Mincome - Wikipedia

In Ontario, a three year UBI experiment was shut down, for political reasons, after year one:

Ontario Basic Income Pilot Project - Wikipedia

The Swiss had a UBI referendum back in 2016 which was defeated by 77% of the people who voted in the referendum.

Universal basic income around the world - Wikipedia

Two of the reasons stated for the rebuttable of the idea in Switzerland:
  • The Swiss are not poor, so a basic income is not really required
  • Switzerland already has a very good and effective system of social welfare, so it does not need to be replaced
We need a solution but UBI in 2021 is not going to fly.

I wonder what the uptake rate would be if the United States had a referendum and all 240 million (+/-) eligible voters participated in that referendum?

I wonder what the the costs of a UBI program would be, if allowed to run for five years, after accounting for the drop in justice and health care system costs.

When 10 million truck drivers are obsoleted by full self driving software in 10 years, perhaps they would help create a political appetite for a UBI.
 
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Yet that hasn't happened, inflation has remained very low.

Money Growth Does Not Cause Inflation!

Because most of the money went to the rich and well to do, it went into the stock market and created inflation there. Prices have gone up so much that the yield is down to 1.14%!

VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Overview | MarketWatch

vs historical (before Reagan broke the system which resulted in Bush 1's "No New Taxes" joke... Clinton was left holding the bag)...

S&P 500 Dividend Yield by Year
 
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My wife tells me that Finland also had an experiment on a small scale
I just read an article in the "Insight" section of today's Toronto Star, that dealt with food banks being a growth industry that doesn't actually solve the root problems of food insecurity.

One statistic mentioned that I did find illuminating was the use of food banks in Canada declined 25% in the spring of 2020...coincidentally the same time period when our version of a "Covid UBI" ($2000/month) was implemented.
 
That's a fundamental problem. Currently we keep demanding that people work low wage meaningless jobs to avoid starving, etc.. This prevents them from getting an education, attending to their children and being good citizens.
Is this any way to run a society?
.

I guess this is where I disagree. I would disagree that $20/hr is a low wage job, it is a farm workers salary. Is it hard work? Sure, less hard than my job. People rather sit at home on welfare than take it. Rather smoke meth on welfare than take it. Mom and dad with no college education, maybe no HS education making 80k a year and free housing. That's not a terrible life. I don't see exploitation there. Obviously it requires that a person is willing to move to where this is possible. Why do 4 generations of welfare recipients stay in WV? Why not move to Cali and go get after it? They are not illegal, they speak the language, they have better education than the guy walking up from Honduras.

Frankly I don't buy into the education argument, we have more degrees than you can shake a stick at (our family) and even a short listed nobel prize candidate, I don't see any correlation that is meaningful other than that jobs simply require a college degree and in college you may meet someone with better connections. I think that most of the work being performed by people with "degrees" is basically simple work that does not require a degree but a willingness to learn and work hard. Take bankers - they used to go into banking with no degree, pretty recent that it was a requirement. Most office work the same. Why can't a kid out of HS do most of this work when they can do that in Europe? Or Korea & Japan. Having lived many years overseas and having worked in big consultancies and big companies I completely reject the "they need education" argument. Then take the Mennonite and Amish community. Hard work and very good incomes. Almost all of Ohio Amish are down in Sarasota on vacation during the winter. Over a bus a day just from one company I know about. Every day but Sunday all winter. Full of these poor, uneducated, people being forced to do low paid work. Or they are full of fairly wealthy people without a single higher education degree, heading from farms to spend a month or two week or 4 months in the family vacation home in a warm sunny spot.

One gentleman that runs a table factory buys logs from us, Amish. Sharp guy. He can run and fix anything in his factory. He purchases some 7 million bdft of lumber a year (that's say $7 million min) to build tables and table parts, he buys logs for special tables. Our forest are good so he travels 6 hours one way to buy from us. You know what the difference is between that factory owner and the college educated factory owner in NC that shut down his factory because he couldn't compete? The guy in NC could do literally nothing but work a telephone and meet with his banker. They both bought from us. The difference is that the Amish owner can literally do anything, he shows up early, works late, his son is being taught to do the same (12) working with dad when not in school, does everything with him. This past weekend they were changing all the fluids in a wheel loader, fluid and filter changes are critical to keeping the equipment running in top shape for long periods of time. So the kid, not even a teen really, is learning to do something that the NC factory owner could not begin to do. It's not that the Amish guy does not have a mechanic. It is that his son needs to learn to do everything, balance books, buy logs, negotiate a contract, work hard, fix equipment, understand the complexity of solvents and finish that impacts customer experiences, arrange a complex logistical challenge of moving sawn lumber, logs, people, equipment and finished goods. He'll learn it all. By 18 I would put that kid up against harvard kid and I would win 9/10 when it came time to starting and running any manufacturing business. 1/10 is when someone figures out how to change faster than the Amish can change. Our buyer comes with an ipad strapped on his arm and a bluetooth headset. But really fast change ...that's hard for them. Mostly, hard work wins out, combined with an ability to create change then you'll be on to something. When the Amish get FSD robo teslas they'll be in heaven. Amish have plenty of issues but I find it sad that in today's technologically dependent world, with education in any field almost free for the taking, that simple repressive religious group can out compete.

How many families in the US get to take a few weeks off and everyone goes on vacation. Seriously, only the 1% of 1% do a month vacation in winter.

My computer savvy programming and math problem solving son is learning to fell trees, how to identify tree diseases, how to plan around the conundrum of regeneration and death and aesthetics in a forest, how to negotiate with lawyers, NGOs, Board of Appeals, Fox Hunts Clubs (yes, just like the english red jacketed type of hunt), how to plant a tree, how to recognize a healthy seedling vs one to toss. Etc etc.

We are implementing some monitoring and measurement practices that are literally state of the art, people have talked about it but we'll do it. We have a rough beta of a block chain based chain of custody to provide attestation on our sustainable harvested wood products. He has no college degree. In 6 years I'll put him up against any forest management company executive in the US, maybe not Finland but he'd hold his own I hope. Once you strip off the social relationships that you develop in college, instead of learning to work, many people literally gain nothing from college. Obviously this does not hold true for some things such as Engineering. Don't get me wrong either, I'm a huge fan of education. I wish we as a nation invested much more in fundamental science. I also wish we would make a distinction between education and college degrees. Education is a pursuit.. a degree is a certificate .


Rant over... apologies
 
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