Guess the final reservation numbers (July 2017)

[Alketi]

The model 3 reportedly has ~400,000 reservations, though Tesla has only publicly confirmed 373,000.

Part 2 of the reveal should include:

- The final car design
- More detail about specifications/options/battery sizing/range.
- Confirmation of pricing
- Test drives!

But also --

- Details about Autopilot 2.0, including timeline to reach Level 4 automation. Description/Videos/Demos.
- The final interior
- The final steering wheel with "spaceship-like" controls
- Possible HUD or augmented reality overlay for mapping/autopilot
- Other surprises?

What do folks think the reservation number will be by July 2017?

 

[Sparky22]

I think after the part 2 reveal the reservations will skyrocket. There will be lot of surprises, the minimum range will be around 250 miles if not more, front dash board will look cool with HUD, and 100 kWh battery will be an option which will extend the range close to 400 miles.

 

[JeffK]

There's an extremely strong likelihood that the reservations are now lower than 373,000 by the way it was addressed in the last financial call. They said they are sticking with that number publically and my guess is that they don't want to cause investors to panic and they expect more reservations after the second reveal.

 

[Cloxxki]

It was fun for a while to show the high amount of reservation. People jumped on the hype. Putting $/€1,000 in a bank account doesn't do them any good. When some felt it might take years to see anything for their reservation, I suppose they felt like a cruise this year in stead.
Seems wise to stop publicising the number real time at this stage. They are counting on these sales, investing to make that volume happen sooner than previously felt necessary. A good thing and a bad thing at the same time. With this capacity, you don't want to run out of order stock. As long as you manage to keep the waiting year's worth of customers happy with prospect off ever better product by the time their number's up, It's much easier to grow capacity. You don't want to make 250k cars and then have to furlough 1/3 of the factory crews you just hired and trained.
Why 100,000 would cancel an early slot in the line...maybe the boot. But that would have been people with less faith in the company to listen to feedback and make it right. It having been such a secretive development, and successfully so, there was very limited customer feedback to go by pre-launch. Perhaps they have learned for it, and will trial some trusted panel to see if they can keep things truly silent, or leak selectively to save marketing costs.
If Model 3 gets confirmed with 100kWh biggest battery, high 3xx mile range and well faster 0-60mph and 0-100mph and 100-155mph than SP90DL, reservations are going to skyrocket again. Such a car will convince the Subaru Impreza type drivers who want something flashy. Stock Model 3, add a wrap job, and take to the drag strip. And those who long for a Nissan GT-R but know they'll never have a new one, but CAN get this Model 3 thanks to modest runnign cost and good resale value the first years due to production backlog. 100kWh, on road trip you'll be towing your tuner car buddies to the gas station when they run out. And, I still hope the 100kWh will not be the end of it. 120kWh Model 3 is possible if Tesla merely allows it to happen, already mid-2017. This would make it super viable in countries with lacklustre SC coverage. They could leave their country and stop first after 700km at a SC in a neighboring country. And it's not far-fetched.

 

[Model 3]

They are counting on these sales

Tesla knows that it will be far from 100% of this reservations that will be converted to orders, just as they know that not 100% of those that will get the car puts down an reservation. But this reservations told them - and their investors - about what the marked potential for the car is.

Why 100,000 would cancel an early slot in the line...

We do not know this. Maybe it is true? Maybe not. Someone that looked at their last finance report said that it looked like it was a bit over 400,000 reservations by the end of Q2. Maybe this is true? Maybe not...

 

[3Victoria]

Most of us would have been amazed with 100,000 reservations. So even if the first blush 373,000 is cut by half, it is still amazing.

However, Tesla needs to manage expectations, and publishing updates is not a good idea, whether the number is going up or down.

I fully expect reservations to explode after the next reveal. That will make life more difficult for Tesla, although a nice problem to have. There will be no problem selling >500,000 Model 3s.

 

[ecarfan]

I think by July 2017, well after the second reveal that will provide many more details and more publicity, Model 3 reservations will exceed 750,000.

Also by that date I believe Tesla will be shipping S and X with Level 3 Autopilot which will of course be an option on the Model 3, so that will also serve to boost interest and reservations.

As @3Victoria correctly points out, just to exceed 100,000 reservations in less than 24 hours is astounding and unprecedented in the history of automobiles. We are jaded by the incredible reservation numbers Tesla achieved with very little effort and no conventional marketing.

 

[EinSV]

I think by July 2017, well after the second reveal that will provide many more details and more publicity, Model 3 reservations will exceed 750,000.

Also by that date I believe Tesla will be shipping S and X with Level 3 Autopilot which will of course be an option on the Model 3, so that will also serve to boost interest and reservations.

As @3Victoria correctly points out, just to exceed 100,000 reservations in less than 24 hours is astounding and unprecedented in the history of automobiles. We are jaded by the incredible reservation numbers Tesla achieved with very little effort and no conventional marketing.

+1

 

[zenmaster]

I said > 250,000 because that's the only option that includes the other possibilities.

 

[3Victoria]

I looked back at EM's tweets.

"@elonmusk what did you expect the orders to be before the release?
Apr 2
Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk
@34thrain Maybe 1/4 to 1/2 of what happened. No one at Tesla thought it would be this high before part 2 of the unveil"

This was when the total was only 253,000. So we can surmise that they are expected a large boost after the second reveal.

 

[Alketi]

My vote was >750,000 because, based on Elon's words, I'm expecting a bombshell of a 2nd reveal.

The first reveal showed that there are a few hundred thousand EV enthusiasts, but the the 2nd reveal will have a much wider audience and will unveil technology, up close, that, to the average car buyer, will be utterly mind blowing.

If we get something like AP 2.0 (with some L4 forecasts), insane performance specs, spaceship-like controls, a HUD/overlay, a 220 mile+ range, a notice that they're on target for delivery, etc. -- I think that from a perceived value standpoint (real value + emotional value) the Model 3 will be so unique, tech savvy, and cutting edge, that it can easily look 10x better than anything in its price class. Call me crazy, but if they unveil something like this, I think they'll sell as many as they can make.

 

[KeRaSh]

I'm betting around 500k. I wouldn't mind a good chunk of people bailing out, though so they can start shipping cars to Europe faster!

 

[WileyTheMan]

I think the number will stabilize around 500k at the *most*. The Reveal Part 2 is pretty much for us reservation holders because most of the enthusiasts are already onboard. If they can get more reservations during Part 2, then it's just gravy on top.

 

[Jason Bourne]

Aside from what Tesla may have up its sleeve for Reveal Part Deux, I think the final number will also be dependent upon external-to-Tesla factors. Like how appealing the Bolt is when it's released. I imagine there are some Model ≡ res holders that just want a decent affordable BEV (not necessarily a Tesla) so if the Bolt appeals to them, they may defect to the other options.

Also, even if Reveal Part Deux blows people's socks off, I think most of the people who are willing to be early adopters (people buying the first 1 or 2 model years) have probably already reserved. For any huge advances, it will pique more people's interests and I think it will drive sales for the 3rd and 4th model years and beyond.

 

[Trips]

I went with the 750,000+ based on the Reservation ID curve that was created. I also added in 75,000 additional for the part 2 reveal with the curve restarting but at 25% of the original reveal. That quick match gave me around 825,000.

 

[dsvick]

Also, even if Reveal Part Deux blows people's socks off, I think most of the people who are willing to be early adopters (people buying the first 1 or 2 model years) have probably already reserved. For any huge advances, it will pique more people's interests and I think it will drive sales for the 3rd and 4th model years and beyond.

I agree, even if the second reveal is awesome, most people who are willing to reserve and then buy a car without having even sat in it, let alone drive it, have already done so. Yes, a great 2nd reveal will get a bunch more reservations but I don't think it will be on the scale that the first set was. If Tesla gets to production on time, can ramp it up as hoped, and any quality issues are minimal, that's the point where you'll see a huge increase in orders.

 

[Model 3]

... most people who are willing to reserve and then buy a car without having even sat in it, let alone drive it, have already done so.

But anyone that reserves after the #2 event can be pretty sure they will get a chance to see the car, and sit in it and take a test drive in it and read review and experiences before they finalize the order.

 

[3Victoria]

We reserved on a prayer and a hope. The second reveal will much more concrete with concrete delivery goals. I think we will see a huge uptic in reservations.

 

[dsvick]

But anyone that reserves after the #2 event can be pretty sure they will get a chance to see the car, and sit in it and take a test drive in it and read review and experiences before they finalize the order.

True, but I think most of them will look at the, probably by that time, over 400,000 people in front of them, and assume a two or three month delay won't matter, so they'll say, I'll wait until I can sit in it and drive it.

All I know is that I didn't think that way so I'm hoping for mine by the end of 2017, or first quarter of 2018, then I can trade test drives for coffee