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Guesses on Last Production # to be Delivered in 2012?

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by bbmertz, Oct 4, 2012.

  1. bbmertz

    bbmertz Model S: P4909

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    Anyone want to speculate on the last production number to be delivered in 2012? I realize that there are a lot of factors that go into the timing of deliveries -- battery size, other configuration options, delivery location, etc. -- but thought it would be interesting to see everyone's fact-less guesses as to the last delivery in 2012. If nothing else, this will help us non-Sig customers pass the time until our cars arrive...

    Personally, I'm hoping for at least 85 kWh configurations with active air suspension up to P5000, since I'm P4909. I received a Nov/Dec estimate on my MVPA, but am not sure it will really arrive this year (although still cautiously optimistic).
     
  2. Zextraterrestrial

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    Wow.. I'm P 1722 and have a 'estimated' December date, which was reiterated last night in email

    I guess P2012 will get it by new years (maybe P2013 on Jan 1). that would be around the number I think Elon said he expected.

    Is there any $ involved in this? or beer/wine? I'm in for a growler of Six Rivers or a maybe bottle of Prosecco
     
  3. Lyon

    Lyon 2016 S P100DL, 2016 X P90D

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    Well since it's pretty clear that they're not delivering in order do you mean what's the highest number that they will have delivered or what will be the last number?
     
  4. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    highest P# in 2012 i hope is 2842, but realistically it is more like 2000.
     
  5. AndyM

    AndyM Member

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    please-please-please-please-please be greater than 1988.

    [ so much for my intellectual credibility... as if I had any. ]
     
  6. STxTesla

    STxTesla Sig #1278

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    My guess is P# 2222.
     
  7. SCW-Greg

    SCW-Greg Active Member

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    Why I was just going to say... 1990 (give you 2 to spare). ;)

    Love the cred comment btw.
     
  8. contaygious

    contaygious Active Member

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    I'll guess somewhere around 2,000 considering I'm told dec
     
  9. timdorr

    timdorr Model S P1698 / VIN 1657

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    Knowing my luck, P1697 will be last :p
     
  10. Tempus

    Tempus Member

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    yeah - it would be funny to look at the guesses against everyone's sequence number. Me, i'm guessing (hoping?) for #4000 to go in december.

    :)
     
  11. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    That would be too perfect to deliver 2012 as the last in 2012 and 2013 as the first in 2013.
     
  12. mcornwell

    mcornwell Active Member

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    Guessing only 70% of reservation holders are getting the 85kwh battery and air suspension. Add to that approximately 15% drop out/deferral/transfer to X/upgrade to sig.

    Based on that, and assuming 1 week from manufacture to driveway, and an average of 350 cars coming off the assembly line per week for the ~6 weeks of production after the last R rolls off the line, I'd say reservation holder P3535 should get theirs if they ordered with the big battery and the air suspension.

    With those guesses, I may get mine by the middle of December?

    (Edit: In case someone from Tesla is listening, I'd *really* like to get my car by 12/8, as my folks, who live 3000 miles away, will be passing through LA, and they would love to see the car, otherwise it might be 6 months before they are back on the west coast) :biggrin:
     
  13. Mike_Schlechter

    Mike_Schlechter Model S - P457

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    as long as it is higher than P457, then I honestly don't care very much...
     
  14. cinergi

    cinergi Active Member

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    My guess for highest P in 2012 .. #P2012
     
  15. johnnyS

    johnnyS Member

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    I vote for P4786 (guess what our number is). It matters a lot for tax planning if one gets the car in 2012 or 2013. I assume it will be 2013 for us.
     
  16. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    +1 for mcornwell. I think he nailed it about as well as we can with the imperfect information we have.
     
  17. JakeP

    JakeP S P4996 / X P6028

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    How about a little love for P4996? I'm still holding out a crazy bit of hope that my estimate is not blatantly over optimistic, just because I am an 85kWh.
     
  18. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Given the production target is something like 3250 by the end of the year, and 1200 are Sigs, I just don't see how P4996 is going to get there. You'd need nearly 3000 P's to drop out in front of you either due to:

    1) There's a huge number of deferrals or small battery pack.
    2) Outright cancellations (this would be bad if 3000 people cancelled...)
     
  19. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

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    #19 joefee, Oct 5, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2012
    My guess is P 2174


    Do over Update (due to the continued slow ramp) …. P-1100
     
  20. JakeP

    JakeP S P4996 / X P6028

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    Yes, that is why I give it maybe a 10% chance of happening at this point. I would be pleasantly surprised to receive it in 2012, but there would have to be a very small percentage of 85kWh batteries and dropouts, plus a higher than expected ramp-up, to make it happen.

    The kicker is, if I don't get this car in 2012, which has various financial benefits, I would like to delay delivery until next Spring or Summer at least. I would prefer this in order to avoid delivery during a NE winter, to get closer to available charging stations along my work travel routes (not necessarily just Superchargers...being able to use an HPC at the Columbus, OH store would be a huge benefit to me, for example). I wonder if Tesla will be at all accommodating in that regard. This eventuality will only occur if Tesla misses what is still my published estimated delivery date, after all.
     

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