That matches what I was told a couple days ago. I am P813 and was told based on the delays and current ramp I might get mine around mid January. But that there was a chance still to get it in December.
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Guesses on Last Production # to be Delivered in 2012?
- Thread starter bbmertz
- Start date
That matches what I was told a couple days ago. I am P813 and was told based on the delays and current ramp I might get mine around mid January. But that there was a chance still to get it in December.
I will reiterate, in case anyone from Tesla is reading this, that it's very disruptive to our tax planning to be told explicitly that my Model S will surely be delivered by Dec. 31, and then to have that not come true. May I send the tax underpayment penalty bill to you, GeorgeB?
Total Production and Total Customer Deliveries
Based on guidance in September, and production and VINs to date, I predict total production of Model S in 2012 to be at least 2,743 vehicles. Of those, I estimate 34 vehicles for engineering and marketing, and at least 52 vehicles in finished inventory, with total customer deliveries of 2,657 vehicles. Any increase in production over 2,743 vehicles would remain in ending inventory.
This estimate is based on the factory achieving a production run rate of 400 vehicles per week by Saturday, December 22, which meets their production rate milestone of 20,000 vehicles per year. If they achieve that milestone, I believe the factory will shut down for the last week in December and give the workers a much needed break.
If the factory does not meet the 400 vehicles/week production rate then I believe they will work the final week in December.
The completion and customer delivery teams will work absolutely flat out through the holidays (including Thanksgiving and through Christmas to New Year's Eve) delivering a total of 400 vehicles in the last week, demonstrating that they can deliver at the required rate. Their delivery job will, in fact, be made easier by the year end holidays and the fact that customers will accept all kinds of deliveries that week so customers can realize the tax credits in 2012. (Also, I have a theory on a 'delivery party' that could happen in Las Vegas (or Reno) that could help meet the total delivery target in Q4 of 2,500 vehicles (more on that later)).
This scenario would minimize the year end inventory (always nice for financial statement purposes), and meet the production rates and customer delivery goals.
I'm not predicting what the final reservation sequence numbers will be, including Canadian Signatures and Rs/Ps, as those metrics, although important to the reservation holders, are not important to the financial community. I do believe that TSLA and Elon will ensure there is appropriate 'recompense' to the Sigs, Canadian Sigs and Roadster owners in the future as they (TSLA and Elon) know that customer loyalty is invaluable for future sales.
(Winter storms and road conditions are a huge risk to the delivery numbers.)
Based on guidance in September, and production and VINs to date, I predict total production of Model S in 2012 to be at least 2,743 vehicles. Of those, I estimate 34 vehicles for engineering and marketing, and at least 52 vehicles in finished inventory, with total customer deliveries of 2,657 vehicles. Any increase in production over 2,743 vehicles would remain in ending inventory.
This estimate is based on the factory achieving a production run rate of 400 vehicles per week by Saturday, December 22, which meets their production rate milestone of 20,000 vehicles per year. If they achieve that milestone, I believe the factory will shut down for the last week in December and give the workers a much needed break.
If the factory does not meet the 400 vehicles/week production rate then I believe they will work the final week in December.
The completion and customer delivery teams will work absolutely flat out through the holidays (including Thanksgiving and through Christmas to New Year's Eve) delivering a total of 400 vehicles in the last week, demonstrating that they can deliver at the required rate. Their delivery job will, in fact, be made easier by the year end holidays and the fact that customers will accept all kinds of deliveries that week so customers can realize the tax credits in 2012. (Also, I have a theory on a 'delivery party' that could happen in Las Vegas (or Reno) that could help meet the total delivery target in Q4 of 2,500 vehicles (more on that later)).
This scenario would minimize the year end inventory (always nice for financial statement purposes), and meet the production rates and customer delivery goals.
I'm not predicting what the final reservation sequence numbers will be, including Canadian Signatures and Rs/Ps, as those metrics, although important to the reservation holders, are not important to the financial community. I do believe that TSLA and Elon will ensure there is appropriate 'recompense' to the Sigs, Canadian Sigs and Roadster owners in the future as they (TSLA and Elon) know that customer loyalty is invaluable for future sales.
(Winter storms and road conditions are a huge risk to the delivery numbers.)
sublimaze1
8Dec2012 / Leeroy Jenkins
My Product Specialist (okay, he wasn't my original one, but I stole him) told me just now on the phone that they have hit their maximum production number for this week. Take that with the grain/kilo/metricton of salt you will ....
I don't understand what that means? That they matched their previous high production number for a week already this week?
I think it means they are producing at 400/week line rate (20,000 a year line rate). Either that or they are running at line maximum rate which would probably be roughly double that line rate. I am guessing they are producing 400 cars/ week this week if that statement is true.
And the verbiage in that note seems to indicate they are running full hours at that rate also. Sounds like really good news for all you sub 2,000 res numbers!
It could also mean they hit that week's rampup target (i.e. no problem ramping up this week), something much less than 400/week.
sublimaze1
8Dec2012 / Leeroy Jenkins
That's what I would surmise ... I will say that he quoted "I can't give you a number, but you can work backwards" - FWIW ....
Beavis
Model S Signature 991
US Sig production will not be completed in early November. Mine will enter production "soon" so I seriously doubt that it will be completed before the middle of the month. There are US Sig's with delivery windows extending into December based on the tracking spreadsheet.
Based on the call this morning, it sounds like they'll ship ~3000 cars in Q4.
I'm going to do a lot of rounding here, but ~770 are US Sigs, 200 might be Canadian Sigs, leaving around 2000 for R and P reservations. The Q3 info said they gained 2900 reservations, but the net was only 1700, so about 1200 cancellations. It sounded like the cancellations were weighted towards older reservations. We've had folks through around P7000 contacted I think, so say 800 cancellations through the R500 & P3500 spots for a nice round 20% cancellation rate in the "earlier" reservation holders. Let's also say 30% of the folks don't want the 85kwh battery (a number pulled from thin air).
So, working backwards from the 2000 non-Sig deliveries we can extrapolate back out to the last P code shipped this year: 2000 / .8 / .7 = 3571 - R500 = P3071.
Obviously there's a ton of rounding and assumptions in there, but it doesn't seem too unreasonable to think folks around P3000 have a shot at a car this year.
I'm going to do a lot of rounding here, but ~770 are US Sigs, 200 might be Canadian Sigs, leaving around 2000 for R and P reservations. The Q3 info said they gained 2900 reservations, but the net was only 1700, so about 1200 cancellations. It sounded like the cancellations were weighted towards older reservations. We've had folks through around P7000 contacted I think, so say 800 cancellations through the R500 & P3500 spots for a nice round 20% cancellation rate in the "earlier" reservation holders. Let's also say 30% of the folks don't want the 85kwh battery (a number pulled from thin air).
So, working backwards from the 2000 non-Sig deliveries we can extrapolate back out to the last P code shipped this year: 2000 / .8 / .7 = 3571 - R500 = P3071.
Obviously there's a ton of rounding and assumptions in there, but it doesn't seem too unreasonable to think folks around P3000 have a shot at a car this year.
Babylonfive
Power12
Wasn't the 3000 number a 'built this year' and not a 'delivered this year' number?
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
Straight from Tesla this morning:
They have delivered about 600 in October and are pushing out 200 per week, up to 400 per week by the end of the month. So, that definitely means *at least* 2500 deliveries this quarter.
teslasguy
MSP P#1117
Hopefully I'm getting my new Blue Performance sleigh for Christmas as well!
Dashing through the snow
In an 85kw Blue sleigh,
Over the streets we go,
Laughing all the way!
I'm P1117. :smile:
Last edited:
teslasguy
MSP P#1117
Hey, I used to live in Phoenix (ok, Glendale) and I recall snow on the ground one winter.
Granted it's been a lot of years and it wasn't a lot, but the ground was definitely snow covered.
:wink:
mnx
2018 M3P
Thought I'd bring this thread back to life. You're all wrong. 
We've already had cars >P4000 delivered (out of order sequencing at work).
Plus there's this as well:
Model S December Production email
We've already had cars >P4000 delivered (out of order sequencing at work).Plus there's this as well:
Model S December Production email
Apparently the thread needs to be renamed. We should be guessing how many cars Tesla reports in their financial results as having being shipped in 2012.
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