Guestimating Tesla "invitation to configure" heuristic

[Khan3]

I don't know about you guys, but every since the news came out this week that non-employee customers were finally getting a chance to configure their cars for delivery in the next 4 weeks, I've been trying to figure out what the sequence of invitations could be, and more importantly when i would expect to get my invitation (i cant imagine what the 4 weeks of waiting will be like after that).

So back to figuring out the heuristic, my initial common-sense assessment is that the order is something like:

1. Tesla Employees / family - Living in California
2. Current Tesla owners - Living in California, Line waiters
3. First time buyers - Living in California, Line waiters (probably same priority as [5] )
4. Tesla Employees / family - outside California
5. Current Tesla owners - outside California, Line waiters
6. First time buyers - outside California, Line waiters
7. First time buyers, Reveal day online reservation (but non-line waiter)
8. First time buyers, post reveal online reservation

That's just my rough analysis. We would need some data to make a better determination.

What would be useful is if those that have received invitations could provide some information could collectively help figure this out.

I'm thinking of the following questions?

Tesla Employee/family? :
Reservation time : {Line Waiter} or {Reveal day reservation (online)} or {post reveal online reservation}
If Line waiter, time-of-day : (morning, afternoon, evening or n/a for non-line waiters):
Current Tesla owner? :
Reservation address state (city optional) :
Any California address in contacts? :

I think given the above we can figure it out.

Thanks to @Garlan Garner whose post provided the initial seeds for making this post.

 

[AEdennis]

I don't know about you guys, but every since the news came out this week that non-employee customers were finally getting a chance to configure their cars for delivery in the next 4 weeks, I've been trying to figure out what the sequence of invitations could be, and more importantly when i would expect to get my invitation (i cant imagine what the 4 weeks of waiting will be like after that).

So back to figuring out the heuristic, my initial common-sense assessment is that the order is something like:

1. Tesla Employees / family - Living in California
2. Current Tesla owners - Living in California, Line waiters
3. First time buyers - Living in California, Line waiters (probably same priority as [5] )
4. Tesla Employees / family - outside California
5. Current Tesla owners - outside California, Line waiters
6. First time buyers - outside California, Line waiters
7. First time buyers, Reveal day online reservation (but non-line waiter)
8. First time buyers, post reveal online reservation

That's just my rough analysis. We would need some data to make a better determination.

What would be useful is if those that have received invitations could provide some information could collectively help figure this out.

I'm thinking of the following questions?

Tesla Employee/family? :
Reservation time : {Line Waiter} or {Reveal day reservation (online)} or {post reveal online reservation}
If Line waiter, time-of-day : (morning, afternoon, evening or n/a for non-line waiters):
Current Tesla owner? :
Reservation address state (city optional) :
Any California address in contacts? :

I think given the above we can figure it out.

Thanks to @Garlan Garner whose post provided the initial seeds for making this post.

We have 2 reservations. One opened, other still waiting, reserved in line and own 2 Teslas in California.

 

[gregincal]

Your algorithm has already proved wrong. Tesla employees and family have gotten cars all over the country and we still have weeks before any others will get cars. The location only matters within a category (employees, owners, etc).

 

[calisnow]

Own two Teslas. California resident. Line waiter. Got config invite Wednesday for one of my two reservations.

 

[Khan3]

@gregincal , we're just trying to figure it out! ... per employee orders from "all over", my thinking is that the reservation is held using the "employee" as proxy ... so Tesla is not really looking at the location of the family but the location of the employee making the reservation

Thank everyone! keep the updates coming ... so far looks like we are firmly in phase [2] : Tesla Owners, living near california , Line waiter territory based on the updates on this thread and what i've seen on related threads.

 

[tashtibet]

we need to define/or find the definition of Early Reservation Holders-are they just line waiters, also reserving online before unveil (online started an hour before unveil) and then the rest.

 

[gregincal]

@gregincal , we're just trying to figure it out! ... per employee orders from "all over", my thinking is that the reservation is held using the "employee" as proxy ... so Tesla is not really looking at the location of the family but the location of the employee making the reservation

Thank everyone! keep the updates coming ... so far looks like we are firmly in phase [2] : Tesla Owners, living near california , Line waiter territory based on the updates on this thread and what i've seen on related threads.

Nope, Space X employees in Texas have received their cars.

 

[Khan3]

@tashtibet , i doubt there is any additional distinction for the online orders. So it looks like two buckets for reservations:
a) Those who physically went to a location and joined a line
b) Those who ordered online

Each bucket is queued in order of time ... so the only advantage of ordering online before the reveal is that you are at the beginning of that second bucket

 

[Khan3]

@gregincal , wasnt aware of that, good to know!

 

[Big Dog]

I think its:

1, 4
2, 5
3...

 

[electracity]

Tesla is delivering customer cars so it can't be claimed that Tesla did not produce Model 3 in 2017.

The "heuristic" is senior management optimizing Tesla's reputation with available resources. Tesla probably hasn't decided yet when any particular customers car will be delivered.

 

[schonelucht]

May help to figure this out : someone added an in store/online column to the Google Docs spreadsheet to track this. I added the 2 new entries from this thread (thanks, @AEdennis and @calisnow feel free to correct if I made a mistake). Others may be able to fill in more entries to get a better picture. But I have a feeling its strictly in-store only right now. (Link Model 3 invites to configure )

 

[Khan3]

@electracity , errrmm ... thank you for your contribution ?!

@schonelucht , this spreadsheet is fantastic! thanks for adding the "in store" column! I'll also help update the sheet based on feedback posts here.

 

[AEdennis]

Additionally, a couple of friends who reserved their orders at the Model 3 event seem to have been provided their links a day earlier. They did not line up.

 

[Khan3]

mmmm .... "reserved their orders at the Model 3 event" ... seems @event reservations should be treated as an "in-store" reservation since it required physical presence? ... i think we can claim its somewhat consistent ??

 

[AEdennis]

mmmm .... "reserved their orders at the Model 3 event" ... seems @event reservations should be treated as an "in-store" reservation since it required physical presence? ... i think we can claim its somewhat consistent ??

My point is they reserved hours after line waiters in California and were told they were among the first customers to get invites... and they were (especially California based ones). So the assumption could be made.

 

[gregincal]

My point is they reserved hours after line waiters in California and were told they were among the first customers to get invites... and they were (especially California based ones). So the assumption could be made.

So far we've only had in person 3/31 reservations, no online ones. However, there doesn't really seem to be much of a pattern with regards to the time of the reservation. Not a huge amount of data points, though.

 

[Khan3]

it's growing ... and at least now we have a way to 'see' quantitatively when reservations begin to open up beyond california!

 

[Garlan Garner]

Your algorithm has already proved wrong. Tesla employees and family have gotten cars all over the country and we still have weeks before any others will get cars. The location only matters within a category (employees, owners, etc).

Why can't we just stop telling people that they are wrong.

Who has the right answer? Speak up.

If no one knows, then all of Tesla's comments are useless and they can just do whatever they want.

 

[wyldtek]

I'm a Model S owner in California with a reservation made in line. I have not received my invitation yet. I bought my Model S months after making the Model 3 reservation so hopefully I still get "current owner" priority.