Tesla needs to be first with a compelling $20k EV.
Elon has said he would be disappointed if battery cost did not fall below $100/kWh within a decade.
That is the price at which BEV powertrains fall below the price of ICE powertrains.
That is when you can make a better $15k BEV than Toyota can make an ICE Yaris.
I was actually rather surprised recently to learn there were still at least six cars offered in North America that could be purchased new for under $15,000. Dodge and Honda have abandoned that market entirely.
JB Straubel has said the batteries in the Model S represent 25% of the purchase cost. Assuming that same relative percentage would apply to a $20,000 electric car, that means the battery pack would be $5,000. At $100 per kWh, that would be a 50 kWh battery pack. For a $15,000 electric car, that would make for a 37.5 kWh battery pack. I would love to see the return of the Honda CR-X form factor myself.
I believe that Tesla Motors will never release a car with less than a 200 mile range -- in the United States of America. There is the outside chance that in Europe, China, and India they might offer a 40 kWh-to-50 kWh lightweight, smaller vehicle for the relative price point of $20,000 or less. I would be surprised to see something of that sort to appear in short order though, it would likely be at least eight years away before low price volume sales became more important than performance and range in those markets. But I rather believe that instead of building a
'city car' or a
'commuter car' Tesla will prefer to make compact and mid-sized vehicles that have uncompromised range and performance, while leaving the micro-vehicles to other manufacturers, like BYD or TATA.
I expect that instead, Tesla Motors will shoot for using a 60 kWh battery pack in a small car for the North American market that costs ~$24,900 when they can make the sub-$100 per kWh mark.
