TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Guy Who Killed Fisker Offers Advice To Elon

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by LMB, Oct 21, 2014.

  1. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    8,471
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    An industry's first mover that assumes the competition is stupid and will remain stupid forever is playing an extremely dangerous game.

    IF the legacy auto companies remain stupid forever there are electronic firms like Samsung and Foxconn that have shown interest in BEV manufacturing.

    Nissan-Renault are at least half wits. :wink:




    Absolutely, they have the time scale up but less time than you seem to imply.

    Battery technology and manufacturing does not work that way. They have a very good idea what they will be manufacturing 2 years from now and at what cost. They don't develop something in the lab and have it in a car 6 months later.It has to be thoroughly tested and vetted before reaching the consumer.
     
  2. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    3,038
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    I was actually rather surprised recently to learn there were still at least six cars offered in North America that could be purchased new for under $15,000. Dodge and Honda have abandoned that market entirely.

    JB Straubel has said the batteries in the Model S represent 25% of the purchase cost. Assuming that same relative percentage would apply to a $20,000 electric car, that means the battery pack would be $5,000. At $100 per kWh, that would be a 50 kWh battery pack. For a $15,000 electric car, that would make for a 37.5 kWh battery pack. I would love to see the return of the Honda CR-X form factor myself.

    I believe that Tesla Motors will never release a car with less than a 200 mile range -- in the United States of America. There is the outside chance that in Europe, China, and India they might offer a 40 kWh-to-50 kWh lightweight, smaller vehicle for the relative price point of $20,000 or less. I would be surprised to see something of that sort to appear in short order though, it would likely be at least eight years away before low price volume sales became more important than performance and range in those markets. But I rather believe that instead of building a 'city car' or a 'commuter car' Tesla will prefer to make compact and mid-sized vehicles that have uncompromised range and performance, while leaving the micro-vehicles to other manufacturers, like BYD or TATA.

    I expect that instead, Tesla Motors will shoot for using a 60 kWh battery pack in a small car for the North American market that costs ~$24,900 when they can make the sub-$100 per kWh mark.
     
  3. highedu

    highedu Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2012
    Messages:
    667
    Location:
    East Bay Area, CA
  4. BrianC

    BrianC Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2014
    Messages:
    113
    Location:
    United States
    Maybe Steven Spielberg will take some directing advice from Uwe Boll as well.
     
  5. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,355
    Small mind falls into the zero sum game trap. Releasing the D arguably speeds up X and 3 rather than slowing them down.
     
  6. rcc

    rcc Model S 85KW, VIN #2236

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2012
    Messages:
    413
    Location:
    San Jose, CA
    I think it's going to be very difficult for a big auto company to develop a compelling EV until:

    1) battery tech gets good enough and cheap enough that you can use current big-auto methodologies instead of Tesla methodologies and wind up with a good car. My guess is that's 3-5 years after Tesla brings out the Model 3. Tesla can use batteries that others can't and because of they design the drivetrain, power management system and battery pack/cell management as a vertically integrated system, not a modular system.
    2) they decide to use the Supercharger network or its equivalent to gain long-trip capability.

    Another company can try and do what Tesla is doing but they need to acquire or develop engineering expertise. If they can't hire enough people from Tesla, it will take them years to get it on their own.
     
  7. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    3,038
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    rcc: Correct. What Tesla Motors will be able to accomplish at $100 per kWh, the traditional automobile manufacturers will struggle to match at $25 per kWh, ten years later. You can see that in the fact that no matter what they do, they must leave an 'out' for themselves by having a 'range extender' attached to just about anything that is remotely affordable, or build them on platforms that are 'shared' with a primary ICE configuration. The Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG Electric Drive appeared in 2013, five years after the Tesla Roadster, and basically just sported a 7 kWH larger battery pack, higher top speed, same 0-60, half the range, and cost four times as much. No one else is close to either the Mercedes-Benz or the Roadster, and that's on the high end. See the BMW i8 as evidence. Traditional automobile manufacturers are desperately afraid to even attempt to build a clean sheet vehicle from the ground up to be electric and nothing else.
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC