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Gwynne Shotwell

Discussion in 'SpaceX' started by Grendal, Aug 11, 2016.

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  1. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    A recent speech and Q & A at the small satellite conference:

     
  2. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Gwynne at the APSCC 2016 conference. Lots of useful data out of her concerning the company.

    SpaceX's Shotwell on Falcon 9 inquiry, discounts for reused rockets and Silicon Valley's test-and-fail ethos - SpaceNews.com

    Here's a big one: Shotwell also said Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX is offering a 10 percent discount to customers that agree to fly their payloads on reused Falcon 9 first stages.

    Only a 10% discount for used stages. I wonder if some of that has to do with the recent anomaly and the monetary losses due to the downtime.
     
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  3. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I was expecting a bigger discount. Surely when SpaceX does a mission with a "CPO" ;) first stage their mission cost is reduced by much more than 10%?
     
  4. drees

    drees Active Member

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    If you read between the lines, it's pretty clear that they could offer a larger discount, but when you look at their launch backlog, they have way more demand than they can handle right now, so why not take the money and use it for more R&D?
     
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  5. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    @drees, fair point, and I would agree with you if the recent explosion on the pad had not occurred. But right now I would think there is a lot of uncertainty about Falcon 9 reliability in the launch community, and I thought it might help SpaceX's launch schedule get back on track if they offered a bigger discount for launching on a landed first stage. But apparently SpaceX has confidence that a bigger discount isn't necessary. Good for them, and I truly hope their optimism is justified! The company has no bigger fan than me. :p
     
  6. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    I agree with drees. Just like in the earlier days of the Tesla Model S, they can't build and launch rockets fast enough at SpaceX, so there is little need to discount. As they catch up to their backlog by opening up more launch pads, maybe they can then start more discounting to keep their pads full.

    Besides, a used core is simply a core that has undergone heavier testing, isn't it? :). Maybe they should charge MORE for them!

    If things keep going the way they are going, though, there might not be much competition in five years...
     
  7. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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  8. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Nice interview with Gwynne:

    April 2017 - Shotwell: Ambitious Targets Achievable This Year | Via Satellite

     
  9. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the link. This quote was particularly interesting:

    "...the final spin on Falcon 9 will be rolling out a little bit later than mid-year, and that is really the stage that rolls in all the lessons learned on reusability that we have learnt to date. Those vehicles will be highly reusable — 10 times at least. When those vehicles are flying regularly, we will start seeing more pressure around the launch price side,”

    By "final spin" I assume she is referring to Block 5.
     
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  10. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Absolutely. Minimum refurbishment needed version. Once they are launching regularly with only fuel and support systems as cost then the company will quickly be reimbursing the costs associated with the development of reusability. Right now the company seems to have a five to ten year advantage over all competitors. The one exception, though it isn't a big one, is Blue Origin. It will be very interesting if two privately owned companies focused on getting humanity off planet outdoes every government sponsored launch company on the planet. China will be the one country to take reusability seriously. Arianne has already thrown in the towel on it. They could change their mind in the future though.

    The two big upcoming steps are FH and Commercial Crew. I'm also very curious to see how SpaceX, Elon, and Gwynne deal with testing Dragon 2 powered landings. As I mentioned in another thread the company will probably have to negotiate testing with cargo runs.
     
  11. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    BO still seems many years behind SpaceX overall. Is there any public info showing that China is making real progress towards reusable first stages?

    Amazing to see Ariadne publicly acknowledge that they do not intend to develop reusable rockets. They might as well put up a "Going Out of Business in 5 Years" sign.
     
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  12. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    That's not what they said. They said that Ariane 6 (due 2020) won't be reusable because it would take too long to develop a reusable rocket and they need faster delivery of lower launch costs. The implication was focusing on making Ariane 6 a cheap disposable rocket, and then focusing on reusability for Ariane 7.
     
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  13. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    #13 Grendal, Jun 27, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2017
    Gwynne was on the "The Space Show" on June 22nd:

    Thu, 06/22/2017 - 14:00 | Gwynne Shotwell

    Credit to ecarfan for pointing this out on FB.

    Big news from this is that there has been significant testing done on the Raptor engine. It's been fired dozens of times.
     
  14. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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  15. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Gwynne Shotwell was at Stanford last night and was interviewed by Steve Jurvetson (on the BOD of both Tesla and SpaceX and huge investor in each) concerning all things SpaceX. No video of the interview has surfaced yet but here are some of the things talked about:

    -larger Raptor currently under construction
    -hope is for manufacturing facilities at all BFR launch pads
    -confirmed that Boca is explicitly for BFR
    -suggested that SpaceX could fund BFR and Starlink simultaneously, albeit with a bit longer timeline
    -reiterated December for FH and possibly LC-40
    -BFR P2P wouldn't be economical for short trips, but could be cheaper than economy flights for long trips
    -fairings to be regularly reused by H2 2018
    -S2 recovery will not actually attempt recovery, more just explore the orbital reentry regime
    -confident that SpaceX can make carbon composite prop tanks operational, BFR could be ready before the stuff needed to live on Mars
    -SpaceX will build the Martian infrastructure if they have to, would prefer other companies to start work on it
    -not likely a coincidence that Musk started TBC, tunnels will be crucial until domes and terraforming on Mars

    I'll post a video of the interview as soon as one surfaces. It looks like there was a lot of interesting information.

    Thanks to NSF user "vaporcobra" for the list.
     
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  16. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Active Member

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    What is starlink?
     
  17. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    The SpaceX global broadband internet satellite constellation that is being developed. I think Elon said the total number of satellites would eventually be around 4,000. We don't know much about it or far along the development is, but no satellites have been launched yet.
     
  18. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Thanks @Grendal . I started a thread about this earlier today, see Posts on reddit about Shotwell's talk at Stanford this week If the SpaceX mod wants to merge that thread with this one they are welcome to do so.
     
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  19. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Oops. Sorry, I missed it. I'd delete my post but I don't know what would happen to the later posts.

    Fairing recovery by next year.... I suppose there has been some progress on this that we haven't seen or heard about. There have been a lot of launches since we first heard about this with SES-10.
     
  20. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Just occurred to me that this will be an important development step for SpaceX to do. By developing and getting expertise in their own satellite system around Earth, SpaceX will have the experience to launch and establish a comparable satellite network above Mars. IMHO, this will be an important first step in establishing sustainable colonies/manned exploration of Mars.
     
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