With a large battery pack, the daily average kW's used for the average 30 mile commute can even more easily be captured off peak by charging mostly at night, adding essentially no stress to the grid. Estimates by James Billmaier in his book Jolt http://joltthebook.org/ suggest that the current off peak waste of electrical generation is huge, just for want of a way to store excess off peak baseload we "throw out" enough capacity every night to charge tens of millions of electric cars. At a local EV gathering, we had someone from the local utility speak and I had a chance to verify this. He confirmed that without having to pollute any more, that we are already burning enough coal, running enough water through dams, splitting enough atoms etc to meet the needs of EV's for many years to come if they are mostly charged at night/off peak... and an 85 kW pack is prime for smart grid integration. It appears to me that EV's may offer the much needed missing link to grid stabilization.
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Steph
Member
I would not call it dumbness... More like a "Status quo syndrome". It's hard to compare a well known product with a completely new different product. The model S is not a car as you know it. To understand it, you need to do some maths, logic.
sp4rk
Banned
Not so sure about this ... I recently spoke to two staffers at my local Nissan dealer ... they told me that their service dept was not supporting itself ... all the warranty work ... and one then asked me if it would be a good idea to apply at Tesla. I would have no idea! Then the Leaf sales expert quit and went to another dealership to sell $80,000 10MPG SUV's!
But the dealership itself had absolutely NO interest at all trying to sell Leafs.
I've been following the S for a long time. I remember the day I read 300 miles to a charge, $50k after fed rebate... I went all googly-eyed. Then, came more accurate pricing structures, option packages, etc. and before you know it my version is $70k (not even a 300 mile one). I know. And I would loveeeee to have one (hence my screenname), and I'd venture to say one day I will.
Fact remains though, there is a HUGE portion of the population that cannot afford the upfront monthly cost increase. That gas, oil changes, brake jobs, etc. are handled on a more as-needed basis. It might not be the most financially prudent thinking, but it's still a fact that can't be dismissed as such. You said it yourself... it exists and people have to be told over and over and over to get it. You can't price consumer goods based on how people "SHOULD" do their finances, budgets, etc. You have to price them how they "DO". In order for Elon's prediction to be true, that's what will have to be overcome.
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Steph
Member
Remember back in 2008 when people use to say no one except for the very rich will buy an iPhone?
You sound just like them
CyberDutchie
Active Member
What is already happening for several years is that oil companies are entering the power generation business. Not just with petroleum and natural gas, but they are moving into nuclear and hydro power as well. And because they want to maintain their profits, as gasoline revenues decline expect the price of electricity to go up.
Operational cost of EVs varies depending where you live. I'm in the Bay Area and my current top electricity rate with PG&E is 34 cents per kWh. I can bring it down by going to a Time of Use plan that has lower rates at night. I calculated I will pay about $60/month to drive my Model S versus $250 for gas for my Kia today. What do you think will happen to the TOU rates if half their residential users sign up for it? It will only go up.
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This is possible but I don't think probable. The reason why daytime rates are so high is because the power company has to create generation for peak output. As you use more and more off peak power you allow the power company to utilize more and more of their generation potential. Thus lowering their costs. I think higher off peak power usage will lower power rates overall. Your night time TOU might go up, but you daytime peak should go down.
Perhaps a history lesson is in order here. When Michelin first started importing radial tires to North America in the late 1960s, everyone said the same thing as what you're saying now. The tire companies had plenty of warning (Michelin started selling radial tires in 1945), were in very good financial positions, and no one thought the hurdles could be overcome. The North American tire manufacturers fought radial tire adoption with every method at their disposal:
1. Too expensive, the American public will never purchase them.
2. Won't work in cities, or on highways (Which one it depended upon who the bias-ply sales person was talking to).
3. Can't work with then current suspension (A half truth--in some cars the caster needed to be adjusted to compensate for the lower static radius).
4. Must be rotated a special way (Total nonsense, except for certain directional tires, although I still see this bandied about sometimes).
5. Doesn't get the fuel savings promised (Another half truth--if you spend the fuel savings in higher speeds you won't save at the pump).
6. Bias-belted tires (Remember those--they were made primarily to stop radial tire adoption).
Yet by the mid-1970s it was plain that radial tires couldn't be stopped and the North American tire manufactures started to develop radial tires but it was too late. All but one of the North American tire manufacturers went under (though the brand names are still there).
This story sounds a lot like Tesla Motors.
Steph
Member
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
I agree that eventually EVs will prevail over ICEs, but the oil companies will artificially delay this, potentially for a long time. And unlike tires or cellphone companies, they will have sovereign governments that are net producers of oil assisting them. Can you imagine the disruption geo-politically if oil consumption is half of what it is today in 10 or 15 years? It's a much bigger disruption to not only some of the world's biggest companies, but some of the most volatile countries in the world. Governments, whether to help protect Big Oil or not, will try to slow this process down in the name of political stability.
Ben W
Chess Grandmaster (Supervised)
Elon didn't say that half of all cars on the road would be electric by 2020. (or even 2025.) He said that half of all NEW cars would be electric by then. It would take an additional 5-10 years before that equates to half of all cars on the road.
I also expect that natural gas will begin to take over at the upper end (large trucks, semis), reducing our oil dependence from that direction as well. Until lithium-air batteries are a reality, it's hard to see electric being viable for long-haul semis. But as Elon said, give it 15-20 years
That's simply wrong. The only bottlenecks are in the distribution system; the bulk power system (generation + transmission) are more than up to the task. Actually, so is distribution provided that utilities put in place tariffs to shift EV charging outside of the 4pm-8pm window. My recent article in The Electricity Journal walks through this argument in more detail. PM me if you want a copy (don't pay $36!!).
tdelta1000
Active Member
That will be the case and the transition will be slow at first but will gain speed when the masses understand the advantages of going with EVs.
Here's something to ponder: the cost of a new MB E350 or BMW 5 Series versus a Model S and factor in the fuel costs. The Winner is the Model S.
Here's something to ponder: the cost of a new MB E350 or BMW 5 Series versus a Model S and factor in the fuel costs. The Winner is the Model S.
Remember back in 2008 when people use to say no one except for the very rich will buy an iPhone?
You sound just like them
I wasn't one of them, but still... I own a dumb phone still with zero desire for any kind of smartphone, iphone or otherwise. I would also argue that a single purchase of an iphone is a much different case than a $50k car (or $20k-$30k for that matter).
I think we'll agree to disagree on this one. When - to the point of the thread - over 1/2 of the new cars sold are electric, we'll revisit this and see who was closest.
Norbert
TSLA will win
And, since we are talking about in 20 years, the price of the Model S will be much lower by then.
mgemmell
Scottish chap
Sorry to lay into this comment along with the rest, but this is simply not the case, at least down here in Spain. A good friend of mine is a director in Endesa, one of the big electricity producers down here. They have studied this in detail and if ALL transport in Spain switched to electric this would suppose just a 17% increase in electricity consumption.
Add to that the fact that most charging would be done overnight when demand is weakest and oversupply is more an issue.
Isn't this just more FUD spread by the anti-EV lobby?
WRT car brands: The folks distrusting some startup EV maker can still order a B-class E-cell from Mercedes (the most established car maker one can think of), or a Toyota RAV4 EV, with a Tesla drive train, or a Nissan LEAF, or a Ford Focus EV, or a Renault Z.E. ...
WRT the TCO discussion: you can relate fuel costs to a lease rate only so much. If fuel becomes too expensive, folks will drive fewer miles, or even switch vehicles.
WRT oil companies throttling EV adoption: They are clearly aware that oil is rapidly dwindling and the times of cheap fuel are over. They cannot hinder EV adoption by keeping fuel prices low, it will mortally hurt their profits. Hydrogen is the path to continue selling chemically bound energy, they just need cheap electric power sources. That's where they are moving, according to Robert.Boston.
my 6c :smile:
WRT the TCO discussion: you can relate fuel costs to a lease rate only so much. If fuel becomes too expensive, folks will drive fewer miles, or even switch vehicles.
WRT oil companies throttling EV adoption: They are clearly aware that oil is rapidly dwindling and the times of cheap fuel are over. They cannot hinder EV adoption by keeping fuel prices low, it will mortally hurt their profits. Hydrogen is the path to continue selling chemically bound energy, they just need cheap electric power sources. That's where they are moving, according to Robert.Boston.
my 6c :smile:
I was very optimistic a few years ago. But seeing the slow sales of the Leaf, Mitsubish I, and Volt have changed my mind. However, I'll agree that once a certain momentum builds up, it will seem to change overnight. We've used many examples of new technologies such as DVD players, cell phones, etc. But one that I think really works is LCD monitors. At first they came out and they were expensive. They didn't really do anything that wasn't already available such as a CRT monitor. They just happened to be smaller and more energy efficient. In many cases the early models didn't even have as good of a picture as the CRT. Sales were slow for a few years. Most computer stores had one or two models on the shelf. Then something happened. It seemed to happen overnight. Suddenly when the price of LCDs reached a certain point, everyone quit buying CRTs completely. Now what is interesting is that the price of an LCD was still higher than CRTs, but not by much. One of the things that happened was that "high end" CRT monitors were discontinued. Basically they realized that anyone who had the money and wanted a high-end monitor was not going to buy a CRT. So the only CRTs that remained were very low-end CRTs. Those managed to hang on for another year or two and then they were gone also. In retrospect it seemed that it happened very slowly at first, and then all of the sudden a critical mass developed and it was like an unstoppable snowball. Here we are just about 10 years after that critical point was passed and now it is nearly impossible to find a CRT monitor on a desk anywhere.
I could make a similar comparison with DVD players and digital cameras. The reason I like these comparisons is because they are technology that replaced an older technology. A lot of people like to use cell phones as an example, but that was a technology that filled a market that didn't exist before.
However, I am trying not to be too optimistic. Even though these technologies were an obvious success, I have to look at technologies that did not win out. For example, the Laserdisc player. It was readily available and there was a strong niche market for enthusiasts, but it never reached the masses because the prices of the players and the media never came down to a point anywhere close to VHS tapes. I was buying laserdiscs right up to the point that DVD came out. I was paying almost $40 per movie. In most cases a person could buy 3 movies on VHS for the price of one movie on laserdisc. While there is no doubt the image was far superior and the format had many other advantages, I could never get most people to even consider making the switch.
So the real question is.. Will electric cars be a niche market indefinitely, or will they reach that critical mass and simply replace the ICE forever? Obviously I hope it is the later, but it is hard to say.
I could make a similar comparison with DVD players and digital cameras. The reason I like these comparisons is because they are technology that replaced an older technology. A lot of people like to use cell phones as an example, but that was a technology that filled a market that didn't exist before.
However, I am trying not to be too optimistic. Even though these technologies were an obvious success, I have to look at technologies that did not win out. For example, the Laserdisc player. It was readily available and there was a strong niche market for enthusiasts, but it never reached the masses because the prices of the players and the media never came down to a point anywhere close to VHS tapes. I was buying laserdiscs right up to the point that DVD came out. I was paying almost $40 per movie. In most cases a person could buy 3 movies on VHS for the price of one movie on laserdisc. While there is no doubt the image was far superior and the format had many other advantages, I could never get most people to even consider making the switch.
So the real question is.. Will electric cars be a niche market indefinitely, or will they reach that critical mass and simply replace the ICE forever? Obviously I hope it is the later, but it is hard to say.
Hello adric & welcome to the forum.
That are excellent points you make in your post. I remember very well when LCD started to replace CRT. This example underlines Tesla's secret master plan to enter the market in the 'top notch' segment and work its way down to where the volume is. For every reason we have to be impatient, things are starting to move. Far more EV models come to the market, from established car makers and in serious numbers. Response from private consumers is slowly building up, but fleet managers start to look very serious into the numbers. More and more governments establish emission restrictions and benefits for EVs.
And the best thing is, we all can participate in the move and help throw over the switch with buying and driving EVs! I put emphasis on driving since car collectors don't help much. Interesting times are ahead!
That are excellent points you make in your post. I remember very well when LCD started to replace CRT. This example underlines Tesla's secret master plan to enter the market in the 'top notch' segment and work its way down to where the volume is. For every reason we have to be impatient, things are starting to move. Far more EV models come to the market, from established car makers and in serious numbers. Response from private consumers is slowly building up, but fleet managers start to look very serious into the numbers. More and more governments establish emission restrictions and benefits for EVs.
And the best thing is, we all can participate in the move and help throw over the switch with buying and driving EVs! I put emphasis on driving since car collectors don't help much. Interesting times are ahead!
My thought is that none of those cars are what people want to buy. I seriously considered a Leaf for Denise because it fits her driving profile but one of the reasons I didn't purchase one is because she didn't want a car that can only be counted on to go sixty miles. Her thought was that if she stays overnight for two or three nights and can't plug it in (condo) she won't be able to get back. I can't say that's unreasonable. You pay slightly double for the Model S and go three times as far in a much nicer car (The Leaf was $36,000 as configured, the Tesla is $80,000 as configured). No one has seen a Mitsubishi, and the Volt is not an electric car--it's a hybrid--and it's a GM.
I believe that Telsa is making a car that people want to purchase (I know I do).
