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Half of all new cars will be electric

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I could make a similar comparison with DVD players and digital cameras. The reason I like these comparisons is because they are technology that replaced an older technology. A lot of people like to use cell phones as an example, but that was a technology that filled a market that didn't exist before. ...

Hi adric,

Flat panel is a good comparison but remember that titles were important for CDs and DVDs to make inroads. And Cell phones are actually a good analogy because while people had home, business and public pay phones cell towers are analogous to charge places.
 
Agreed.

In fact I'd call that conservative. Let me explain my extreme position...

Switches to new technology are not always that linear... the switch to digital audio (CDs) and then to downloadable audio (MP3s)... the switch to digital cameras... the switch to digital cellular. etc. In 1990 few knew of email. By 2000 few didn't know. In 1990 who knew what www meant? In 2000 who didn't?

When the new technology provides clear unquestioned advantages (in the case of EVs they include cost per km, noise, mechanical simplicity, maintenance cost, space efficiency, environmental impact, performance...) and you add to that ever reducing costs of manufacture as volume increases, and the switch can be sudden and profound. We act as a herd, and when critical mass is reached it all of a sudden happens.

We may all here in TMC be early adopters and therefore have taken the leap before others, but when people stop and look at the cold hard facts I think they will switch quickly, sometime around 2016 to 2018.

For a friend of mine for instance, right now they don't entertain the idea of an EV, but they have said that when they are shown an attractive vehicle, that costs the same, is cheaper to run per km (mine is 10x cheaper when I charge on night tariff here), simple to maintain, silent, safe and good for the environment, they will look at the "campfire on wheels" that is an ICE and see it for what it is... a gramophone record player in a world of ipods. As the switch happens the resale value of ICEs will tank and everyone will see EVs as the only future they want to own (except for a few enthusiasts just as is the case with vinyl of course).

The beers are on me in 2018 if I'm wrong, but I have a feeling things may happen very quickly.

Very well put, Scottish chap, very well said indeed.

However. .. (playing the Devil's advocate)
With all the technology-switches you mention none of the technologies have been in use as long as the ICE. Not even close. And none of those technologies have such an EMOTIONAL impact on the users. This purring engine, which has to actually warm up, almost gives the vehicle something human. Sometimes it doesn't run so well, almost doesn't seem to feel so well. Just like us. The hood radiates a pleasant warmth. And why is the engine and exhaust note so important? We have become very used and familiarised with it.

The choice of a car is a far more emotionally driven decision. We, as early adopters, let our enthusiasm for this new tech prevail, together with our RATIONAL conviction that it is the only way to be able to upscale worldwide automobility in a sustainable way.... But will the masses act similarly?? And do not underestimate the sheer power of the industries under threat: Oil and Automotive.

Don't misunderstand me. I agree with you and believe that the extreme conservatism of the existing industries will work against them on a much shorter term then they expect. Ha!Ha!Ha!
I believe this because even I, a naturally born Petrolhead, will switch to an S. With my Quattroporte as daily driver. With my subscription to four carmagazines (1 dutch AV, 1 american C&D, 2 english EVO+Octane). With my collection of Alfa Romeo's. With my Alfa 75 race car which I will drive on the legendary and fantastic circuit of Spa. Racing will never be the same without the noise, the heat, the smell of petrol and burned rubber, the constant double-clutch gearshifting to keep the engine in its narrow powerband...and the satisfaction when you have succeeded in doing this succesfully. Even I realise that the S signals the biggest shift since the car was invented. The end of an era.
 
I believe Elon is correct, and especially from a local perspective. In Norway ICEs are heavily taxed. With EVs though at the moment there is 0% duty and 0% VAT. Also no "one-time" car sales tax. This makes EV's very price advantageous here. In fact, cars that have been likened to the Model S (BMW 5 or 7 series, Jaguar XF etc.) have starting prices way over the Model S (Jaguar XF with 5.0 liter V8 = 213k USD, BMW M5 295k USD, even the smallest engine on a BMW 7-series; 730d 172k USD.

This reflects in sales; the first 6 months of 2012 saw the sale of 1800 EVs (not hybrids) which represents about 2.1-2.5% of all new cars sold. The numbers are increasing each month. Bear in mind that this is all with limited range EVs such as Leafs, i-MiEVs, Buddy etc. (I drive an i-MiEV and while I like it it's true that it's not more than a glorified golf-cart). When the Teslas come I suspect this will skyrocket. The EV charging infrastructure will follow, creating a positive feed-back where it will just get easier and easier to own and drive an EV all over the country. Will be exciting to see how many Teslas will have to be sold before we see superchargers at strategic locations along major roads.

The perks of today (driving in HOV lanes, no tolls, free parking many places, free charging) will of course have to disappear eventually.

Norway today is a very rich country, all thanks to oil in the North sea (Norway was a poor country before WW2). It's not clear what the government will do in the coming years if the sale of EVs skyrocket, because there will be a huge drop in state income from car sales taxes, but if the political willingness is there Norway could be the global fore-runner when it comes to EVs.

With today's tax system maintained, continued development in battery- and car technology, more models coming to the market, I predict that 30-50% of all personal cars sold in 2025 will be fully electric in Norway.
 
@Johan from Norway

You guys have so much money accumulated from oil and reserved in your State owned fund (500 billion+) that you can choose and afford the transition to be the greenest country in the world.

We (Netherlands) also had a huge amount of gas but the biggest part has been used/sold and the revenues were largely squandered by the irresponsible politicians (socialists...) Be proud you didn't make the same mistakes!!

Norways transition from Oil-to-Green would be an excellent paradox AND fantastic positive example to the rest of the fossil fuel producing countries!
 
Many thanks for the comments PeterSZ and also for your excellent auto-enthusiast perspective. You are quite right that there are many aspects to an ICE that are appreciated even if they are negative (noise. smells, heat...). I raced a Nissan GTR a few weeks ago and, while I won in acceleration, the noise that car made under duress was indeed music.

With all the technology-switches you mention none of the technologies have been in use as long as the ICE. Not even close. And none of those technologies have such an EMOTIONAL impact on the users.

One could argue that Vinyl records are similar... For mass consumers they had been around for more than 50 years when CDs came along. Vinyl certainly had emotional impact. It still does. None the less, you are essentially right.


As for Johan...
...In Norway ICEs are heavily taxed. With EVs though at the moment there is 0% duty and 0% VAT....

Amazing. You guys are living off oil and yet have the foresight to push harder than many for the switch to EVs. I salute Norwegians everywhere.

I was already impressed with your national self-restraint in saving rather than spending the oil income. Truly an admirable country. I vote Norway runs the EU (or at least the South! ;)
 
Amazing. You guys are living off oil and yet have the foresight to push harder than many for the switch to EVs. I salute Norwegians everywhere.

I was already impressed with your national self-restraint in saving rather than spending the oil income. Truly an admirable country. I vote Norway runs the EU (or at least the South! ;)

Thanks! Agree with you that it's been foresight to not spend all the oil money. Look at some of the Arab states; consumed all of it and will be left with nothing when the oil era is over. Here we've realised that you need to build something else. For Norway it's been technology, though mostly in the oil/gas industry. Actuallt I read that last year the income from sourcing/selling that technology and know-how to others was larger than the income of actual oil taken out of the ground (sea). We've passed peak oil a long time ago. Keeping the current no-tax incentives on EV's could be seen as "spending" some of the oil money (i.e. less tax income) but I would think this would be a sensible thing to spend on, as it would generate a lot of experience and we would be the world leader in the conversion to electrical transport, something that would again generate high-tech companies and buiseness that can be sourced/sold abroad in a later phase.

Norway though is not in the EU, the main reason being that the economy here is so different to other EU countries, and therefore it would make no sense to participate in the EU and especially in the Euro (currency).
 
Keeping the current no-tax incentives on EV's could be seen as "spending" some of the oil money (i.e. less tax income) but I would think this would be a sensible thing to spend on, as it would generate a lot of experience and we would be the world leader in the conversion to electrical transport, something that would again generate high-tech companies and buiseness that can be sourced/sold abroad in a later phase.
The big issue about the oil money is not whether one has something worthwhile to spend on - the issue is whether the spending drives inflation.

We have about 500 billion dollars in our oil fund, and we also have a 200 billion dollar maintenance backlog when it comes to our roads and railroads. Renewing our roads and railroads is definitely a worthwhile endevour, yet if we simply spend our oil money on it, inflation would wipe out any spending increase and nothing more would be done. We simply don't have enough workers to fix our roads and railroads, and do everything else that the economy depends on. Significantly increased spending on roads and railroads for instance leads to rising housing prices, as all the workers stop building houses and start building roads, and then everyone has to spend more of their income on housing to pull the workers back to building houses. Spending increases without anything accomplished.

When you consider the EV "subsidies", they do not drive inflation, as all the work is done abroad, and the investment increases our competitiveness globally. As such, it is a good way to spend the money. We reduce the amount of oil we use, driving down our bottom line, allowing us to sell more of our oil and reap greater profits. On top of that comes the benefits of being at the forefront of adoption. We can help shape electric cars for the future, ensure they work in snow and ice, and when oil starts to become scarse, we are that much further along to a post-oil society. And on top of that again are the benefits of living in quieter, less cancerous cities, like you get with electric cars.

Edit: Actually, it occurs to me that adopting EVs may actually fight inflation. If it's true EVs require less maintenance, this will free up some workers to do other jobs. And EVs certainly don't require gas stations. A smaller numer of fast chargers (as most charging will happen at home) will instead be incorporated into other businesses, leading to fewer workers being required to fill up cars with energy. These freed up workers can be used for other jobs like building roads, with zero impact on inflation.
 
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What did you expect?

Lower maintenance = job killer

But not every job killed is a bad thing. See: Parable of the broken window

Very true, but (like you have just so educatedelly (is that a word?) pointed out) sometimes (always?) to keep society and humanity moving forward there will be some "victims" along the way (big oil in thos case). And anyhow, aren't there more useful/beneficial/smarter ways to use whatever fossil fuels are left in the earth than to burn it up in small car engines with something like 20% efficiency?


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@Johan,

replacing gasoline in personal transportation will not reduce oil prices below today's price point. It will help with avoiding a sharp rice of oil prices, though, which will happen as we start to see the falling slope after peak oil. So, no sorrow for big oil. They will lose a little bit of a monopole with personal transportation, but will not suffer from that because they have several more going that will serve them well.
 
@Johan,

replacing gasoline in personal transportation will not reduce oil prices below today's price point. It will help with avoiding a sharp rice of oil prices, though, which will happen as we start to see the falling slope after peak oil. So, no sorrow for big oil. They will lose a little bit of a monopole with personal transportation, but will not suffer from that because they have several more going that will serve them well.

I generally agree with this. I think there will be a slight drop in oil prices as speculators (or 'investors' as they call themselves) start to see declining usage and start to get out. But I wouldn't imagine more than a 20-30% reduction from that.
 
@Johan from Norway

You guys have so much money accumulated from oil and reserved in your State owned fund (500 billion+) that you can choose and afford the transition to be the greenest country in the world.

We (Netherlands) also had a huge amount of gas but the biggest part has been used/sold and the revenues were largely squandered by the irresponsible politicians (socialists...) Be proud you didn't make the same mistakes!!

Norway's transition from Oil-to-Green would be an excellent paradox AND fantastic positive example to the rest of the fossil fuel producing countries!

Well, Norway's rather a special case.
1) They are a net exporter of electricity and it's almost entirely renewable: the lucky gits have lots of hydro. They're now also adding wind, which they can do relatively easy because hydro's capable of both being baseload and peak.
2) They don't make cars.

So, not only do they get to use more native electricity and export more petroleum, the relative cost to the economy of replacing conventional cars with plug-in vehicles is lower than in a country with domestic car manufacturing, especially if electric cars stay true to the promise of high reliability.
 
Well, Norway's rather a special case.
1) They are a net exporter of electricity and it's almost entirely renewable: the lucky gits have lots of hydro. They're now also adding wind, which they can do relatively easy because hydro's capable of both being baseload and peak.
We're even building more cables to our neighbours to try to get rid of some of our power. One cable to Britain and one cable to Germany will be in place within a few years. And they will be needed.

By current estimates we'll have a surplus of around 50 TWh of electricity in Norway/Sweden/Finland/Finland in 2020. Our problem is that wind power here is a solution to a non-existant problem, and Finland is building more nuclear, which adds to the surplus.
 
Yes. OTOH, too close to the Arctic circle for my comfort :)
Meh, it's not so bad. I lived my 24 first years north of the Arctic circle (Bodø), and it's not that bad. Temperatures range between -10C and 25C most years. Recent years there hasn't even been too much snow. It rains away, comes back and rains away again. Link

We have the gulf stream to thank for it, of course. Without it we'd freeze to death.
 
And then there are of course the benefits of living in stunning nature. I took this picture a couple of summers ago. It's taken on a small peak that's 1 hour of walking from Bodø. The faintest mountains to the left are Lofoten, if you've heard of it.

spkg09.jpg