Agreed.
In fact I'd call that conservative. Let me explain my extreme position...
Switches to new technology are not always that linear... the switch to digital audio (CDs) and then to downloadable audio (MP3s)... the switch to digital cameras... the switch to digital cellular. etc. In 1990 few knew of email. By 2000 few didn't know. In 1990 who knew what www meant? In 2000 who didn't?
When the new technology provides clear unquestioned advantages (in the case of EVs they include cost per km, noise, mechanical simplicity, maintenance cost, space efficiency, environmental impact, performance...) and you add to that ever reducing costs of manufacture as volume increases, and the switch can be sudden and profound. We act as a herd, and when critical mass is reached it all of a sudden happens.
We may all here in TMC be early adopters and therefore have taken the leap before others, but when people stop and look at the cold hard facts I think they will switch quickly, sometime around 2016 to 2018.
For a friend of mine for instance, right now they don't entertain the idea of an EV, but they have said that when they are shown an attractive vehicle, that costs the same, is cheaper to run per km (mine is 10x cheaper when I charge on night tariff here), simple to maintain, silent, safe and good for the environment, they will look at the "campfire on wheels" that is an ICE and see it for what it is... a gramophone record player in a world of ipods. As the switch happens the resale value of ICEs will tank and everyone will see EVs as the only future they want to own (except for a few enthusiasts just as is the case with vinyl of course).
The beers are on me in 2018 if I'm wrong, but I have a feeling things may happen very quickly.