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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by TEG, Jul 2, 2017.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon MuskVerified account @elonmusk 19s19 seconds ago
Replying to @elonmusk
Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
Just saw that! Woohoo!
Now we wait for the config
I didn't expect any customer cars to be this month. So I guess we will have access to configurator soon?
Awesome news. There goes that rumor about thousands of Model 3s being delivered in July.
Putting Elon's data points into Excel and using a polynomial trend prediction says 5600 cars in October and 11,700 in November for a total of 39,000 Model 3s in 2017.
Awesome to hear.
So I'll be the first to say, it sounds like the 30 cars on the 28th are hand-assembled cars. As well as the next 100 in August. Then the M3 production line spools up in September for the next 1500 and increasing from there.
Does the first "customer" cars mean the employee cars?
I thought he skipped most of the hand tooling and opted to buy the robotics early? But I agree with what you are saying, we will see the early models. What does this do though for the other vehicles production lines? Does the Model 3 run parallel or do they shut down the other lines to make these?
The Model 3 production line is completely separate from the S/X line. The 3 line has its own dedicated workers.
@HankLloydRight I agree that the July and August cars will be largely built "by hand" given the volume Elon stated. That just makes sense. The welding robots have to be trained, their work carefully inspected, the line will move very slowly.
The polynomial trend prediction by @Vostok nicely lays out the targeted production ramp. Something around 35,000 to maybe 40,000 Model 3 volume by the end of 2017 would be fantastic and lay a solid foundation for 2018.
Possibly all the employee Model 3 cars could be built by mid-November and that could mean about 30,000 customer cars by the end of 2017. Those cars will likely be the ones going to existing US-based owners.
Exciting times for Tesla!
The Model 3 line is separate from the MS/MX lines.
Or so we're told.
It's quite possible (but unlikely) all this time they've been quietly re-tooling Line 1 or Line 2 to produce M3s until the dedicated M3 line is ready. The final assembly line right now intermixes MS and MX builds, even RHD and LHD.
When I was at the factory in May, the Model 3 line was blocked off by construction curtains. You could see through the gaps, but all I could see where machines on pallets waiting to be installed. I don't know if that was the actual state of the line, or if all I could see was the staging area. It looked like it had a lot to go back in May to be fully up and running though.
Since many Model 3 robots were not in place two weeks ago it's safe to assume that you're correct. It probably is reasonable to expect rapid ramps once the line has been completed but we do not know when that will happen.
I guess you don't really care much about the NDA you signed prior to taking a tour?
His supercharging will be ruthlessly throttled for this transgression.