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"Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on (July) 28th!"

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Figured. Thanks. I knew it was a stretch, but it was an exciting thought as I might be in California at the time.

There's a local guy that has early copies of both Model S and Model X. Guess I'll wait until next year to see a 3 in person.

This is going to be a long month.
 
The 100 kWh packs use 16850 cells from Japan that are in limited supply
First of all, the 100 packs use 18650 cells.

Second, they are not in "limited supply".

Tesla has explained why Q2 2017 deliveries fell slightly short of guidance. See UPDATE - Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production And Deliveries

QUOTE: "The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history."
 
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I just got a couple pictures from the Gigafactory taken about 20 mins ago. They have some sort of colored lighting/smoke going on. I wonder if they are holding the event there? - cross posted under the Gigafactory thread.
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I just got a couple pictures from the Gigafactory taken about 20 mins ago. They have some sort of colored lighting/smoke going on. I wonder if they are holding the event there? - cross posted under the Gigafactory thread.View attachment 234592 View attachment 234593 View attachment 234594
Hmm... looks like those were taken at night. Twenty minutes ago would have been around 4:20 PM and the sun doesn't set for another 4 hours there. Unless those were taken inside a secluded section of the factory with most of the lights turned off?
 
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First of all, the 100 packs use 18650 cells.

Second, they are not in "limited supply".

Tesla has explained why Q2 2017 deliveries fell slightly short of guidance. See UPDATE - Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production And Deliveries

QUOTE: "The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history."
I wonder what's different about "new technologies" since the Model S will not get the newer M3 battery cells.
 
So, dumb question from a non-owner. How does one get invited to the handover party?

Become an owner of a Roadster 6 years ago. Then buy a Sig Model S 4 years ago. Then trade that Sig up to a P85, then a P85D, then a 90DL. Then add a Model X last year. And have 3 Model 3 reservations. And go by the name of Bonnie. That ought to do. ;)
 
Where have you heard that the 18650s are in limited supply?

I haven't heard that 16850s are in limited supply. I've heard that "The 100 kWh packs use 16850 cells from Japan that are in limited supply."

See the difference? Admittedly the modifiers are in an order that can cause confusion.

How about if I say "The 100 kWh packs are in limited supply and use 16850 cells from Japan" can you parse that without the confusion?

I just paraphrased Elon from a recent quarterly earnings call while replying to someone that freaked out about Model 3 because he thought that Model S/X pack anything were a sign that Model 3 packs wouldn't be available in needed quantities.

I was just trying to mention that 16850 comes from Japan and 2170 comes from the US, different supply for different packs in that sense. No reason to compare mass availability of Model S packs and use it to infer availability of Model 3 packs.

QUOTE: "The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history."

Thanks for the documentation, that is part of what I was talking about. See the rest of my reply as to the other parts.
 
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I haven't heard that 16850s are in limited supply. I've heard that "The 100 kWh packs use 16850 cells from Japan that are in limited supply."

See the difference? Admittedly the modifiers are in an order that can cause confusion.

How about if I say "The 100 kWh packs are in limited supply and use 16850 cells from Japan" can you parse that without the confusion?

I just paraphrased Elon from a recent quarterly earnings call while replying to someone that freaked out about Model 3 because he thought that Model S/X pack anything were a sign that Model 3 packs wouldn't be available in needed quantities.

I was just trying to mention that 16850 comes from Japan and 2170 comes from the US, different supply for different packs in that sense. No reason to compare mass availability of Model S packs and use it to infer availability of Model 3 packs.



Thanks for the documentation, that is part of what I was talking about. See the rest of my reply as to the other parts.
Not to nitpick, but you keep saying 16850, but the correct cell is 18650. You are transposing the 8 and 6.
 
We really need to get a lot more visibility into the whole "assembly line manufacturing process" to put all this Model 3 ramp speculation to rest. I've got a crisp new $20 bill for the first Tesla employee to shoot a HD cell phone video of the entire Model 3 line from start to finish who posts it here! That ought to do it.

RT

P.S. in case of multiple postings, the one that captures Elon manually fixing alignment problems will be deemed to be the winner. Oh, no less than 200 robots must be seen in motion during the video to qualify.
 
The fundamental issue is Tesla wants to fulfill its contract with Panasonic for 18650 cells and be free to move all of its Lithium consumption to 2170. This news probably means Panasonic is at its production capacity.
This could be an excellent opportunity to move the 100kWh pack to 2170 and leave smaller packs to fulfill the contract. This would reduce demand for Panasonic cells and reduce the weight of 100kWh cars.
 
The fundamental issue is Tesla wants to fulfill its contract with Panasonic for 18650 cells and be free to move all of its Lithium consumption to 2170. This news probably means Panasonic is at its production capacity.
This could be an excellent opportunity to move the 100kWh pack to 2170 and leave smaller packs to fulfill the contract. This would reduce demand for Panasonic cells and reduce the weight of 100kWh cars.

Panasonic is supplying all the batteries.
 
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