Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Happy Birthday AP 2.0

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Did you guys listen to the q&a?? Elon is now only confident of being as good as a human driver with the current hardware. He also mentioned very briefly about new hardware that they weren’t ready to discuss yet..... :eek::eek::eek:

Yeah I heard that. The real question in my mind though is if it’s just the computer holding things back and they are going to put a new better faster computer in to reach higher levels of safety or is there better sensor suite they planning to meet that safety. If it’s just a computer power issue and I get the upgrade, no worries. If they are adding a bunch of other stuff I will sigh once again just like I did when I got an AP1 car that was quickly superceded by AP2 (kinda), guess we’ll see. I wonder if the slow ramp up for M3 is related this new hardware, so that they don’t have to upgrade a couple hundred thousand cars instead of 30-40 thousand...
 
Yeah I heard that. The real question in my mind though is if it’s just the computer holding things back and they are going to put a new better faster computer in to reach higher levels of safety or is there better sensor suite they planning to meet that safety. If it’s just a computer power issue and I get the upgrade, no worries. If they are adding a bunch of other stuff I will sigh once again just like I did when I got an AP1 car that was quickly superceded by AP2 (kinda), guess we’ll see. I wonder if the slow ramp up for M3 is related this new hardware, so that they don’t have to upgrade a couple hundred thousand cars instead of 30-40 thousand...

I've always thought the the computer will likely need to be updated.... maybe even more than once as they reach higher levels of safety. In fact, I may be in a sweet spot of free upgrades with AP2.0 and no 2.5 nanny cam, this means they are really going to have to have some powerful processing to compensate for my narcoleptic tendencies.....
 
Yeah I heard that. The real question in my mind though is if it’s just the computer holding things back and they are going to put a new better faster computer in to reach higher levels of safety or is there better sensor suite they planning to meet that safety. If it’s just a computer power issue and I get the upgrade, no worries. If they are adding a bunch of other stuff I will sigh once again just like I did when I got an AP1 car that was quickly superceded by AP2 (kinda), guess we’ll see. I wonder if the slow ramp up for M3 is related this new hardware, so that they don’t have to upgrade a couple hundred thousand cars instead of 30-40 thousand...

The thing I find amusing is, when asked why AP1/AP2 were released arguably prematurely, Elon's response was that safety benefits are not worth delaying / sacrificing.

It will be intriguing to see how that applies to whatever "AP3" will be in terms of whether or not its safety improvements can be realized by AP2 owners.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: TaoJones
But the thing is, there is no end. I think myself like @oktane etc. are just telling it like we feel. Saying something else would be holding back how we feel. I'm happy that you are exhilarated, I guess the point is, we're not. About this particular topic anyway.

Absolutely correct as usual. I am only stating what I feel without any sugar coating, which seems to rub people the wrong way. It is not meant to offend anyone, but I don’t see why I should hold back. I’m not here to protect Tesla from the consequences of their poor business ethics.
 
The thing I find amusing is, when asked why AP1/AP2 were released arguably prematurely, Elon's response was that safety benefits are not worth delaying / sacrificing.

It will be intriguing to see how that applies to whatever "AP3" will be in terms of whether or not its safety improvements can be realized by AP2 owners.
I do believe that AP1 and AP2 significantly improve safety of normal driving when used reasonably. If a miscalculation occurred with AP2 cars, it may end up being in the quality of radar or a camera being the issue... which is reflected in changes between 2.0 and 2.5,... I think the nanny cam is a calculation that autonomous driving regulations will likely require certain driver monitoring to be legally allowed to operate and also perhaps to check for kids left in the car.... I wouldn't be surprised if they rip out the rearview mirror stack and replace it during the ap2.o complimentary upgrade.
 
I do believe that AP1 and AP2 significantly improve safety of normal driving when used reasonably. If a miscalculation occurred with AP2 cars, it may end up being in the quality of radar or a camera being the issue... which is reflected in changes between 2.0 and 2.5,... I think the nanny cam is a calculation that autonomous driving regulations will likely require certain driver monitoring to be legally allowed to operate and also perhaps to check for kids left in the car.... I wouldn't be surprised if they rip out the rearview mirror stack and replace it during the ap2.o complimentary upgrade.

I completely agree with AP1 and AP2 increasing safety -- one of the key reasons I chose this Tesla. I'm just saying, if whatever AP"3" enhanced abilities result in more effective anti-collision or more correct unsupervised Autosteer operation, by the same argument, they should make that "available" wherever a retrofit is feasible. Not just for certain grandfathered users who paid extra, or if they could come up with a less-ideal FSD equivalent for legacy hardware. It's a logical fallacy to state that the computer is easily retrofitted at the same time as implying that the current hardware isn't as capable as newer hardware in terms of ratio to human safety....
 
  • Like
Reactions: buttershrimp
I completely agree with AP1 and AP2 increasing safety -- one of the key reasons I chose this Tesla. I'm just saying, if whatever AP"3" enhanced abilities result in more effective anti-collision or more correct unsupervised Autosteer operation, by the same argument, they should make that "available" wherever a retrofit is feasible. Not just for certain grandfathered users who paid extra, or if they could come up with a less-ideal FSD equivalent for legacy hardware. It's a logical fallacy to state that the computer is easily retrofitted at the same time as implying that the current hardware isn't as capable as newer hardware in terms of ratio to human safety....
I don't see it as a logical fallacy. The point about AP1 and AP2 is that having it is better than not having it, not that there will not be a better version in the future. Technology will always improve, so it's a given that the future version of the system will be better in some way.

I mentioned this elsewhere, Tesla's retrofit promise does not mean installing the latest and greatest system into those cars, only what is necessary to achieve the goal. And if a retrofit is not necessary, Tesla won't even retrofit.
 
Absolutely correct as usual. I am only stating what I feel without any sugar coating, which seems to rub people the wrong way. It is not meant to offend anyone, but I don’t see why I should hold back. I’m not here to protect Tesla from the consequences of their poor business ethics.

Yeah, i disagree with characterizing it as "poor business ethics", in fact, Tesla has done a lot of the opposite in practice, especially with responding to the Joshua Brown incident and trying to take the right approach of autopilot seriously;

Elon is just not a deceitful guy in that way. His behavior doesn't fit the profile. He does however fit the profile of an individual who is enthusiastic, but also too cavalier with his tweets and then doesn't get the gravity of how his tweet promises can cause folks to financially stretch to buy a Tesla feature .

I don't see him as someone trying to protect financial results quarters with sneaky promises, and I certainly don't see him as someone making a promise he doesn't intend to deliver. He clearly is not a guy that is motivated by money alone. He leave's way too much of it on the table, which I think it cool. He is idealistic to a fault, an some of his customers get tired of waiting....

Long story short, certainly vent here .... you have every right, but I disagree with the conclusion about the ethics. It just isn't fraud in the way you describe it.... you are, however, in my belief, entitled to a refund based on incompetence if Tesla fall short in the "several months to come"

P.S. My autopilot is the tits. I love it.
 
I don't see it as a logical fallacy. The point about AP1 and AP2 is that having it is better than not having it, not that there will not be a better version in the future. Technology will always improve, so it's a given that the future version of the system will be better in some way.

I mentioned this elsewhere, Tesla's retrofit promise does not mean installing the latest and greatest system into those cars, only what is necessary to achieve the goal. And if a retrofit is not necessary, Tesla won't even retrofit.

That's a good point as well, well put. I don't have anything against technology advancing. I work in tech and that drives every day of my line of work.
 

Thanks. Did Tesla just move from "twice as good as a human" to just "human level" on AP2 capability?
Musk noted that he still definitely believes Tesla is able to “achieve full autonomy with the current hardware,” but also cautioned that the question will be what qualifies as full autonomy in the eyes of regulators and what is eventually legalized for use on roads. Musk said that current Tesla vehicle computer and sensor hardware would allow for “roughly human-level autonomy,” but also noted that regulators might require a higher level, with potentially systems needing many multiples of human efficacy to be deemed legal to operate.

“We’ll have more to say on the hardware front soon, we’re just not ready to say that now,” Musk said. “But for customers that have purchased the full autonomy option, if it does turn out that it requires computer upgrade for full autonomy, we will replace their computer — it’s just a matter of unplug the old computer, plug the new one in.”

As for new hardware, new suites will likely happen (the redundancy question as I say is interesting), but I think what Tesla may be talking here is the new silicon - the new chip - they have been rumored to work on. I believe many of us expect that their own new chip/computer is the earliest they'd consider upgrading AP2 hardware...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Pale_Rider
Yeah, i disagree with characterizing it as "poor business ethics"

This, I think, will be an eternal disagreement to which a lot of different view come down to. I know some on TMC see Tesla as an outright fraud, while others see Tesla did nothing wrong but was, say, caught up in the events (e.g. the MobilEye breakup). One's views will be dramatically different depending on where one is on this scale deep down, because so much of the rest of the opinion flows from that.

As you know I'm somewhere in the middle. I don't think Tesla is a fraud, but I do think some of the things they have done are where a reasonable person "knew better or should have known better". The P85HD HP, the P90DL performance limiters (both court cases in different jurisdictions), AP2 EAP "December, 2016" and FSD "3-6 months" announcements are on this list. At the very least, they should have known better than to do it like this. Some might add the promised Model S lighted sun-visors on the list, few remember that Tesla actually promised to retrofit those to all Model S's - arguably to keep anyone from waiting to buy a car because of that back in the day.

I don't see him as someone trying to protect financial results quarters with sneaky promises

I think it would be naive to assume that doesn't factor into Tesla's/Elon's communications. Quarterly financial results are obviously very important for Tesla and a lot of their communications and demand levers at least seem to be geared towards keeping the cars moving right now.

I certainly don't see him as someone making a promise he doesn't intend to deliver.

Now, this, this I can believe to an extent. I believe Elon believes he can deliver FSD to AP2 - and intends to eventually - or at least believed it when he made the announcement. But even then he is not immune to being caught in the web of past promises. It isn't like Tesla could easily walk back on the FSD promise for AP2 now, so it circles back to "what they reasonably knew or should have known" before communicating IMO... Several AP1 promises were moved to AP2 hardware (traffic lights, elements of smart summon etc.), P85D HP promises moved onto P85DL, P90DL and when P90DL V1 and maybe V2 had issues reaching its specs, the promises were finally fulfilled on P90DL V3, P100D etc. - which of course does not help a guy with AP1 or P85D or P90DL V1... and then when P90DL etc. had warranty issues, Tesla scaled even that P90DL V3 performance back retroactively... (Later that change was mostly rolled back due to pressure from a judge.)

And, unfortunately after three years of Tesla ownership, that picture is not always as pretty as I would like. I would like nothing more than for Tesla to fix that part about them for the future. My suggestion that they only sell and announce what is ready today remains - they could ship the hardware just as fast in my idea, just not pre-announce its capabilities (let alone charge a price) before it is confirmed and software ships... and avoid hubris in announced specs at all costs.
 
Last edited:
...

I mentioned this elsewhere, Tesla's retrofit promise does not mean installing the latest and greatest system into those cars, only what is necessary to achieve the goal. And if a retrofit is not necessary, Tesla won't even retrofit.

Ah, but what of the statement that the S/X would remain ahead of the 3? Even level-pegging for parity, let’s fast forward to the day Tesla’s AP_on_a_Chip (editorial license taken) is ready.

I am of the camp that doesn’t believe Tesla will retrofit the relatively small number of prepaid FSD owners until Tesla’s own AP processor is ready. So let’s say that debuts a year from now.

Clearly that processor will go into the 3. Clearly it will go into new S/Xs.

Seems reasonable that they would retrofit the prepaid folks with the same hardware if for no other reason than economy (of $ for both material and effort).

I suppose there could be limitations due to the aging hardware versions otherwise in, say, a November 2016 Tesla (with then 2-year old grumpy owners), but other than that...
 
“But for customers that have purchased the full autonomy option, if it does turn out that it requires computer upgrade for full autonomy, we will replace their computer — it’s just a matter of unplug the old computer, plug the new one in

Tesla could upgrade customer computers to meet self-driving requirements

Reading those quotes, realistically, I think the best we can expect as AP2 owners is a computer upgrade from Tesla - and especially if we have pre-paid for FSD (before the upgrade option possibly might go away or price change).

I have never seen anything to suggest they might add or change any sensors, or redundant cabling, let alone install an interior camera as @buttershrimp suggested above. I mean, I guess it is not impossible (especially if they felt they can get a massively better result by changing a couple of things), but I haven't seen anything to support that thinking.

I think it is also possible we get nothing more than some driver's aid software updates, on the basis of the setup not being sufficient in the eyes of regulators for more. I wonder if in that scenario Tesla might forgo upgrading the computer too, since it "doesn't make a difference"...
 
I think we knew / understood all along they’d upgrade the ape if you prepaid for FSD. The troubling part is now the target is “as safe” as a human, and not 2x as safe a a human or even super human.... buckle up folks it’s going to be a bumpy ride for AP2 and 2.5.

And they are clearly not holding back m3 manf because of the new hardware. The vendor just crapped the bed making / installing the assembly line.
 
  • Like
Reactions: croman and lunitiks
I think we knew / understood all along they’d upgrade the ape if you prepaid for FSD. The troubling part is now the target is “as safe” as a human, and not 2x as safe a a human or even super human....

Well, I don't think they explicitly changed the target yet... it might be that the current AP2 computer power has been deemed sufficient for 1x human, while a computer upgrade might allow for more. But sure, it is possible the goalposts have also started to move.

buckle up folks it’s going to be a bumpy ride for AP2 and 2.5.

It hasn't been already...!?! ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: croman