Perhaps true in some ways. The biggest discrepancy is us who ordered based on October, 2016 information. But still, if one reads Tesla's Autopilot page and makes a AP2.5 purchase decision based on that, it is probably already a bit rough road...
Anyone who ordered before Jan 2017 I would lump in with the October folks, myself included. However anyone ordering the car today, based on all we know should lay off the drugs because this ride is far from over. The fact Elon is already building the framework to hide behind regulators even though FSD is wide open in some states is very telling. And, not a single mention of the coast to coast drive, which means not happening this year (which we all new), I’m very doubtful the first quarter either. I can’t wait to see what @lunatics uncovers for hw3
An attempt at levity on my part, mostly. I am not expecting Lidar on a Tesla. More radars would be nice.
Anyone that's ever worked with upgrading motherboards is getting a huge chuckle out of this one. Yeah, you just plug the connectors into the new board. It's really simple. ;-)
Mentioned is only a small IF. "If it does turn out" something other than the computer needs an update (or another breakup with suppliers or software developers), the goal becomes a moving target! Besides, hardware could be drop in and provide immediate satisfaction, but Tesla software development and validation takes 1 year delay maybe definitely, just to drive like human. Being as good as a human driver or 2x safer is not enough, but 1000x. So they will need to update both hardware and software in order to get regulation certified. Like PC peripherals, Intel labs can conduct the test and issue certification.
Fair enough, but just want to point out even though I don’t think Elon is oblivious to the numbers each quarter, he’s had enough close calls with respect to Tesla remaining solvent to know how important that is, my point is it’s not what motivates him at all. He likely sees it as an annoyance. Many of the gripes regarding business ethics are misplaced because it assumes the decision to deceive or not deceive without factoring in complexity of a large groups and human factors of self delusion in making promises). The simplest explanation, that ambitious dreamers who build rockets and boring machines and send solar panels and power walls to Puerto Rico sometimes say things pretty grandiose. That behavior is far from poor business ethics. Negligence in making promises on timelines is a fair argument, but I don’t buy the fraud argument. I do understand that it feels like a fraud to people who are annoyed with feeling mislead by videos and tweets, perhaps I will feel this way IF the ethics of the business suddenly change and they stop busting their ass to solve the problems. Until then, until Tesla starts giving me second hand sloppy hardware when I bought FSD on my sweet blue steed, I feel pretty darn good about where this is going.
Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.... These virtual, autonomous cars cover 10 million miles daily
Actually in automotive service terms it probably is quite simple. I assume this would be implemented in a manner that can be swapped as simply as any automotive electronics. They'd obviously design a part that simply replaces the entire (or most of the) computer assembly inside AP2 cars - or at least design a plug-ang-play adapter/harness to fit a new computer... So screw the screws, snap out the fakras and vice-versa and it is done. I doubt they'd start swapping mother-boards (except perhaps in some part recycling manner separate of what happens at the service center)...
1000x? really, 1000x? What's next, Dr. Hannibal Lecter type restraints for the back seat too? Perhaps home Acme Teleportation devices will exist before something rated as 1000x, then we do away with cars altogether. Would solve many of the worlds problems.
The way I interpreted the S/X statement is that it only applies to cars delivered (at most ordered) at the same time. I do not expect cars delivered back in last year to necessarily be ahead of Model 3. And Tesla's retrofit promise had nothing to do with that (Tesla never promised to retrofit improvements in the 3 into the S/X).
So how much did you have to pay the blue Tesla driver? And, why no turn signals, Shrimp? Also, the blue driver should use AP; He's all over the lane!
He did and does not know. He said like two years ago that self driving was basically a solved problem and this is nowhere near true. He has overblown perceptions of what machine learning can do right now. Before people bash me, I am a huge fan of Tesla and SpaceX and what Elon has done. He is amazing and unparalleled visionary and leader. But he is not infallible and he overextended on this topic and people are understandably upset. It will pass, but it's a small blip on his reputation for sure.
May surprise you to hear that I agree with everything you just said after you said “before people bash me” , I think the first part of your post is a likely true to some degree but understanding how to solve the self driving problem and doing it are different things entirely. The problem is likely solved theoretically (I.e. they know what they need to do) but doing it is what he minimized and I believe Elon does himself a disservice by minimizing the enormity of the task. I do however believe he understands it. I stop short of saying he overextends on purpose ... I don’t think it is by design.... I think his enthusiasm is authentic and makes you believe. I believe he can do it not because he’s smarter than every one else. I’m most impressed with his team building and his personality. A less likable person would not have achieved as much. It’s downright fascinating. Richard Branson is also a really smart and impressive guy but seems douchey to the masses no? Like he’s trying to be cool too often. Seems like Elon is a bit more of Tom Hanks character, maybe not Forest Gump but he certainly has the same sort of universality that is compelling in this dreaming game. He has an opportunity to the be the one if the most important historical figures in modern history. How remarkable. Sure hope he keeps it going.
Do you have a reference for this quote? I recall he said that 'freeway driving was basically a solved problem' and that is basically true. The devil is in the details in the quotes...
Agreed. Love the vision, enthusiasm, etc. Hate the business practices. The latter will start eroding the former if it keeps up. I would rather he had done a gofundme for AP/FSD than sold it the way he did.