Happy Birthday AP 2.0

[buttershrimp]

Well, that's the first true thing you've said all thread!

A stopped bot can be right twice a day, I guess.

Did you just call me a bot? Buttershrimp has feelings too.... do you think I am dead inside like @AnxietyRanger or something?

 

[nagypite]

FSD is a scam. 3000$ for a promise

 

[buttershrimp]

FSD is a scam. 3000$ for a promise

You are thinking of marriage.... it too often starts with a $3000 engagement ring and a promise..... When you turn on your car, does it say "@nagypite, how can we work on this relationship if you are going to just berate me a Scam?"

And you say "$3000 for FSD lessons and you haven't accomplished anything! you are such a disappointment"

then your model S summons out of the garage and into the rain where is doesn't even try to clear the tears from its eyes... for it has no auto sensing wipers

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Haha, the thing I don't get about that is... okay, their argument is, they bought this car a year ago for a specific feature, and they feel (and apparently have felt for a long time?) that they were robbed and deeply regret their purchase.

Others have already mentioned the reluctance to eat the depreciation, but I would say many people also want to drive a large-battery BEV and that's why they are driving Tesla. There are no alternatives yet.

Tesla's achievements in the large-battery BEV domain are great and undisputable. Too bad they have been marring that with other shenanigans.

I used to love the Tesla brand and company when I bought my Model S in 2014. Now I'm here just for the drivetrain.

That said, personally I didn't expect too much from FSD. It is the EAP story that I'm beginning to feel was a total misrepresentation.

 

[KarenRei]

Holy crap, Sure. Not everyone is blasé about eating tens of thousands dollars in depreciation caused by being lied to.

It's not about being blasé. You hate the car, as you've made more than clear. *Why are you still driving a car you hate?* It's a serious question that deserves a serious answer. You can at any point in time sell it and get a different one. Why haven't you? Are you a masochist who's trying to punish themselves needlessly?

And for the record, 3-6 month depreciation is usually 10-15%, not 20/30/40+% that "tens of thousands" implies - but that's neither here nor there, and is not a reason to avoid the above question: why are you torturing yourself with a car you hate? I really want to know the answer to that.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It's not about being blasé. You hate the car, as you've made more than clear. *Why are you still driving a car you hate?* It's a serious question that deserves a serious answer. You can at any point in time sell it and get a different one. Why haven't you? Are you a masochist who's trying to punish themselves needlessly?

I think that's where you make the big mistake.

I don't think people hate the car. Many hate the company or the story they were fed.

That doesn't mean they hate the car.

I think, on the balance, I like my Model X twice as much as I liked my Model S in 2014. And I like Tesla the company half as little today than I did in 2014.

So it kind of evens itself out...

 

[KarenRei]

Others have already mentioned the reluctance to eat the depreciation, but I would say many people also want to drive a large-battery BEV and that's why they are driving Tesla.

And that would be a fair answer and is what I expect. But it also undercuts this rage argument. If you hated the car, you wouldn't keep driving it. You may hate that it doesn't do one thing that you thought it was going to do, but the fact that you didn't sell it 3-6 mobths in when you realized that AP2 wasn't going to be "all that" very explicitly says, "It is my view that there exists nothing else out there within 85-90% of the price of this vehicle that is as good as it". And that you wouldn't have regretted your purchase had you A) bought the vehicle at the same price you did, and B) AP2 *hadn't been included at all* at that price. Because again, if you found the price unreasonable compared to what you got you could have *sold the car at any point and gotten a different one*.

As for how you'd switch if a different manufacturer offered something better.... They don't. And it's as simple as that. Tesla is at the forefront of EV technology and infrastructure because they've invested the money to do so. Their current spending is a couple billion per quarter, and - not counting that which goes into car production and returns a 25% profit - all goes into developing Tesla's competitive advantages - mass production scales on EV components , R&D, the Supercharger network, etc. Until others start spending similar sums, don't expect them to take over Tesla's standing. Oh, expect them to talk up a big game and show off concept / low volume halo / compliance cars. But in the end, money talks.

And I understand being upset about AP2. That's natural. I personally (as a computer programmer) have long been dubious of self-driving tech, and never would have brought it. But lets separate being upset over AP2 from being upset over the car as a whole. Because demonstrably - from the fact that you didn't sell your cars - you've made the value judgement that no other car is even close.

 

[KarenRei]

As for the reason behind the the AP2 fiasco, I personally credit the chain of events that started with George Holz. A computer engineer builds a self-driving car in his garage. Meets Musk. Bashes MobilEye, talks down how primitive their tech is and how easy it is to create. Musk - always one to believe he can turn sci-fi dreams into reality, readily agrees. Tesla starts work on AP2. MobilEye finds out, at a period of already high stress with Tesla. Demands that Tesla pay them more for the hardware and terminate AP2. Musk, convinced that what they're working on is easy, says no, and the two bitterly part, leaving Tesla with no choice but to switch to AP2. But hey, it'll be updated soon, right?

Even today I don't think Elon understands how difficult of a task they've taken on. And that's the problem. Self driving is crazy hard in the best of circumstances, and Tesla has taken on the most difficult of variants - real time (rather than precomputed 3d maps), no lidar (because lidar is expensive, bulky, awkward and weather sensitive), etc.

New hardware can help. Hidden in the news about Tesla swithing their computing platform was the fact that they also switched to a better radar. I personally suspect, however, if they want true level 3-4 (let alone 5) they'll need to switch the cameras for time-of-flight ones as well, so that they get a lidar-quality data stream. Photogrammetry is just too error prone. It's AI-Hard. Our brains don't get stitching errors like computers do because they automatically reason out what makes sense and what doesn't. What "makes sense" is AI-Hard.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

But lets separate being upset over AP2 from being upset over the car as a whole.

I would argue differently.

Let's separate being upset with Tesla, from being upset with the car.

I argue many are upset with Tesla. Not with their car.

 

[KarenRei]

I would argue differently.

Let's separate being upset with Tesla, from being upset with the car.

I argue many are upset with Tesla. Not with their car.

I would consider that perfectly fair. But that's not the impression given by some of the other posters.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I would consider that perfectly fair. But that's not the impression given by some of the other posters.

Maybe they can clarify, then. But that is the impression I'm personally getting from most "AP2 haters".

Of course some may also regret they bought the car (I don't, by the way), because it is not fitting their expectations, but that IMO is still a far cry from deciding to sell it at a considerable loss. Regret about a particular thing is still not the same as hating the car as a whole...

It is the next car purchases, whenever those come, when the feelings and reactions of these people will really show. I for example find it rather unlikely my next car purchase will be a Tesla. That is not how I felt a couple of years back. AP2 contributed, amongst other things.

 

[rnortman]

And for the record, 3-6 month depreciation is usually 10-15%, not 20/30/40+% that "tens of thousands" implies

I'm not one of the vocal complainers (though I do think Tesla made seriously irresponsible promises), but I'm not sure where you get 10-15%. Personally in the state where I live, I paid 7% sales tax when I bought the car. You can say "that doesn't count as depreciation" and in a technical sense you're right, but it sure is a real expense and I don't get a refund for it. If I trade my car in I can get a deduction on sales tax on the new car -- but with a trade-in you get an even lower resale value than private party. Definitely not 10-15%.

Please cite references for 10-15% initial depreciation.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm not one of the vocal complainers (though I do think Tesla made seriously irresponsible promises), but I'm not sure where you get 10-15%. Personally in the state where I live, I paid 7% sales tax when I bought the car. You can say "that doesn't count as depreciation" and in a technical sense you're right, but it sure is a real expense and I don't get a refund for it. If I trade my car in I can get a deduction on sales tax on the new car -- but with a trade-in you get an even lower resale value than private party. Definitely not 10-15%.

Please cite references for 10-15% initial depreciation.

That's standard automotive depreciation. 91% value at year 0, 82% year 1, etc. As for sales taxes, if you're going to count that, you should also count credits. If it's a $100k car, then the credit is the same value as 7,5% sales tax.

Either way, it comes back to the point that: if one hated their car, they could get a car that's nearly as expensive by selling their "hated" vehicle. The fact that they don't shows that they feel that Tesla's offerings are better than anything that's even near it's price point, even considering the AP2 fail.

 

[Swift]

That's standard automotive depreciation. 91% value at year 0, 82% year 1, etc. As for sales taxes, if you're going to count that, you should also count credits. If it's a $100k car, then the credit is the same value as 7,5% sales tax.

Either way, it comes back to the point that: if one hated their car, they could get a car that's nearly as expensive by selling their "hated" vehicle. The fact that they don't shows that they feel that Tesla's offerings are better than anything that's even near it's price point, even considering the AP2 fail.

You can’t use the standard depreciation formula here. With the way Tesla handles model years, re-pricing, and changes, their vehicles depreciate differently, especially recently.

Take for example two 2017 S75s built on May 1st. The first vehicle, sold on June 30th already has a significantly lower resale value than the identical vehicle sold on July 1st because Tesla increased the performance of the second vehicle via a software update.

Take my vehicle. A S75 inventory car bought a year ahead of plan on 12/31 due to the bs sales tactic of unlimited supercharging ending. I bought the car on the promise of EAP and FSD being imminent and achievable respectively. The former was untrue and the latter unlikely during my ownership. I would suspect that - combined with other changes like the one cited above - will contribute to increased depreciation for my vehicle as newer, more informed buyers devalue and avoid those features.

Do I hate the car? No. Is it what I was sold? No. Is it what I expected? No. Will I sell it immediately and take a huge hit? No. I will wait to see what happens with the class action and other litigation, although I feel the damages in many cases (including mine) are more than just a refund of EAP/FSD. I wouldn’t have bought the car if not for the promise of those capabilities.

I believe a number of the “haters” as you designate them fall in this category. I also think you’re adding a level of drama with that characterization that is unnecessary and unfair.

 

[rnortman]

That's standard automotive depreciation. 91% value at year 0, 82% year 1, etc. As for sales taxes, if you're going to count that, you should also count credits. If it's a $100k car, then the credit is the same value as 7,5% sales tax.

On the subject of the $7.5k tax credit, EVs (in theory) should suffer an immediate $7.5k resale value hit because prospective buyers will not be able to claim the credit on the used car; if they could buy a new car for less than $7.5k more than the used car, it would be a no-brainer to buy new, unless for some reason they're not eligible for the credit. This will change when the tax credit expires for Teslas, though the exact effect is still a bit uncertain. Anybody considering selling their Tesla would probably be advised to wait until the tax credit has begun to phase out -- though this also means betting that general availability of the Model 3 will not depress Model S/X resale values, because by the time the credit fully phases out, wait times for the M3 should be quite a bit lower. Anybody who thinks they know what will happen to S/X resale values at that point is overconfident, but I think it's reasonably safe to say that it will have some (perhaps small, perhaps large) negative effect on S/X resale values. (As will whatever design refresh and new options they load into the S/X next year to help differentiate it from the 3.)

But then... depreciation measured how? Purchase price vs. trade-in, private party, or dealer retail price? I suspect those numbers are dealer retail prices on the used vehicles, which is not a price that's available to the person selling the vehicle. I've seen people posting their quotes from Tesla on trade-ins and it's not pretty.

 

[buttershrimp]

As for the reason behind the the AP2 fiasco, I personally credit the chain of events that started with George Holz. A computer engineer builds a self-driving car in his garage. Meets Musk. Bashes MobilEye, talks down how primitive their tech is and how easy it is to create. Musk - always one to believe he can turn sci-fi dreams into reality, readily agrees. Tesla starts work on AP2. MobilEye finds out, at a period of already high stress with Tesla. Demands that Tesla pay them more for the hardware and terminate AP2. Musk, convinced that what they're working on is easy, says no, and the two bitterly part, leaving Tesla with no choice but to switch to AP2. But hey, it'll be updated soon, right?

Even today I don't think Elon understands how difficult of a task they've taken on. And that's the problem. Self driving is crazy hard in the best of circumstances, and Tesla has taken on the most difficult of variants - real time (rather than precomputed 3d maps), no lidar (because lidar is expensive, bulky, awkward and weather sensitive), etc.

New hardware can help. Hidden in the news about Tesla swithing their computing platform was the fact that they also switched to a better radar. I personally suspect, however, if they want true level 3-4 (let alone 5) they'll need to switch the cameras for time-of-flight ones as well, so that they get a lidar-quality data stream. Photogrammetry is just too error prone. It's AI-Hard. Our brains don't get stitching errors like computers do because they automatically reason out what makes sense and what doesn't. What "makes sense" is AI-Hard.

Like the post, but I do think Elon understands the complexity of the task, his interview when he describes his meeting with Hotz tell me that and more. I think Hotz walked away because he didn’t like the veto power Elon wanted and thought he could do it without him.... so I think Hotz is the one who likely minimized how hard it would be. I think MobileEye simply made a wise financial decision for themselves and Elon probably always knew he wanted tesla to source all of it and viewed mobileye as a potentially temporary partner.

To me, Elon seems to be much smarter than people realize. I think he gets demoralized a lot more than people know because he cares about what he does, I think this is his greatest strength, Moreso than being smart. There are plenty of folks that are as but then again, I freaking love my car and I think only a mega genius could have created this car.... it’s 10 years ahead of everything else currently on the road.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

it’s 10 years ahead of everything else currently on the road.

And that's why many disgruntled people do still drive Teslas. Counting from 2012 at least, when the main innovation here was unleashed, it quite possibly was 6-10 years ahead of the rest of the market.

The large-battery BEV drivetrain part (and the Supercharger network) indeed are genius. I know you think this is just false praise, but IMO this is Tesla's historical achievement and nothing will ever diminish that.

 

[Zooomer]

Here’s my beef and I don’t appreciate fan boys telling me to sell the car or ‘progress takes time’.


I bought a P100d last year and the day before delivery, Elon announced that all new vehicles have AP2 hardware capable of FSD.

It was sold as a massive improvement and the future.

We were also told that it wasn’t ready now but would reach parity with AP1 in 3 months and then improve quickly with a FSD demo by end of 2017.


I ate $2500 to cancel my AP1 and reordered the car for MORE money because of this.


Now, a year later AP2 is no where near as good as AP1. WTF?

Let’s look at what Elon tweeted Jan 23:

Tom Randall

✔@tsrandall

Replying to @elonmusk

At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?


Follow

Elon Musk

✔@elonmusk

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely

11:00 PM - Jan 23, 2017


So I looked into this a bit and have a new take.

In 2016 after the death using AP, Mobile Eye and Tesla split.

Remember that fight? Tesla said issues were over them doing their own thing. Mobile Eye said it’s because Tesla was being unsafe with the product.


So what really happened? It appears now that ME dropped Tesla, leaving them with nothing. Tesla tried to spin it and turned to Nvidia, and lied to the public to sell cars and make them look in control.

Anyone with AP2 knows how horrendous first version was. Total beta, just made product. ME’s departure completely screwed Tesla, but rather than admit it, Elon lied to push more cars.


Am I upset with my car? No. I’m upset that I was lied to and spent a bunch of money I wouldn’t have if told the truth. I would have kept my AP1 vehicle saving me like 7 grand and giving me a better car.

PS. Elon also lied about what the hardware in AP2 is. Nvidia said their system isn’t capable of FSD and it turns out Tesla isn’t even using THAT but an even more watered down version.

 

[Joe F]

I believe a number of the “haters” as you designate them fall in this category. I also think you’re adding a level of drama with that characterization that is unnecessary and unfair.

Exactly. Very well put.

Without stating who "they" are as "hating" their car, other than "some of the other posters" is, IMHO, a misrepresentation of how some feel about their car and Tesla's marketing of AP2. Sorry, I read through the thread again, and fail to read "rage" in any views expressed by anyone. Rage? Really?

The issue, for me at least, is with Tesla stating features are now more advanced than their AP1 H/W, and stating availability in Dec '16. At this point, FSD components were understood as being a future product, and it doesn't take a computer programmer to understand the complexity involved, not to mention the lack of redundant H/W required to trust one's life to FSD. For me personally, it was purchased with the hope that a subset of FSD features utilizing the additional cameras would be used to further enhance EAP, even with the promise of FSD never materializing.

But, dates came and went. What followed was simply carrot and stick. And S/W releases with regression errors. And comments from Tesla management stating features will be, in essence, any day now, and stating driving characteristics as "silky smooth" . Tweek algos, release, rinse and repeat.

So for someone to lump some posting here as hating their car and further should take a financial hit, with no knowledge of how said person feels about their car, or their financial ability to take such a hit, is illogical. Perhaps with some skin in the AP2 game, one might feel differently, but that's just me.

Hating a company's marketing deceptive tactics is considerably different from hating the product.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I’m thankful that I didn’t buy the car for its self driving capabilities. I would be pissed too if I had. It’s bewildering how confident Musk was of the new hardware and software capabilities. Hopefully he wasn’t trying to be deceptive, but it’s hard not to see it that way. I don’t know why he would purposefully try to deceive us with such short timeframes involved. It now looks like he lied to us. How could that possibly be good for Tesla? It just doesn’t make sense.