Has anyone else spent time calculating possible Model 3 pricing...

[TravelSD80]

Here's my desire:

Optioned Model 3:
Base $ 35,000.00
Larger battery $ 7,500.00
Supercharging (only if included, not paying 1-2K more for this)
AWD $ 4,000.00
Performance $ 10,000.00 (depends on what this buys me...)
Paint $ 1,000.00
Auto-Pilot $ 2,500.00 (hoping for APv2 even if not level 4 autonomous from day 1)
Leather Seats $ 2,000.00
Premium Interior $ 2,500.00
Panoramic Roof $ 1,500.00
High amp charger $ 1,000.00
Total: $ 67,500

 

[JohnSnowNW]

For those of you that are looking to build out your Model 3 to $60k...
Why wouldn't you purchase a 2014 P85 Performance now with 20k miles for less?

One of the main reasons I reserved the Model 3 is the 35k price point. (I think that the majority or reservations will also be closer to the $35k-42k avg that Tesla uses)

Remember our Tesla will be worth 50-57% after three years.

Because the $60k Model 3 will have better performance, most likely more range, and is significantly smaller. My reason, anyway.

 

[igotzzoom]

$45k is my absolute ceiling. I will have to determine my "wants" vs. "needs" at the time option prices are announced. I'd like to be able to get a dual-motor with supercharging, and possibly a higher-performance option. Don't care about the full glass roof.

 

[nickbaum]

I took a stab at comparing the option pricing for the Model S, Model X, BMW 328 and Audi A4 in this thread:

Possible Model 3 options based on Model S, BMW, and Audi

Direct link to the spreadsheet:

Possible Tesla Model 3 options based on Model S, BMW 328 and Audi A4

I didn't include any guesses for the Model 3, but it should help estimate the cost.

 

[model3fan]

I've been meaning to add a 'cost' section to my site with a downloadable/editable Google Sheet. Thanks to this thread for making me set aside the time to do it.

If interested, check out Cost - click the sheet and you can modify it for your needs to get a guesstimate on loan payment, etc. Let me know if I messed up anything.

Hopefully, some of the estimates in this thread on option prices are more accurate than mine (pretty much taken off S/X pricing).

 

[MP3Mike]

For those of you that are looking to build out your Model 3 to $60k...
Why wouldn't you purchase a 2014 P85 Performance now with 20k miles for less?

One of the main reasons I reserved the Model 3 is the 35k price point. (I think that the majority or reservations will also be closer to the $35k-42k avg that Tesla uses)

Because a Model S is too big and I don't want a hatchback.

 

[geoffreak]

Here is my estimate of costs adjusted for the slightly lower costs of the model 3, modified slightly from my original post on the subreddit. I think at this price point, they're going to need to reduce options costs over the S to make them more realistic to the purchase price (and also because of volume causing cost reductions). I do expect many of these things to be packaged up into various packages so you might not be able to order some things individually.

Required:

• Base price, $35,000
• Destination/delivery fee, $1,200

Optional:

• Supercharging enabled, $1,000-2,000
• Dual-motor AWD, $3,000
• Autopilot enabled, $1,000-1,500
• Smart air suspension, $1,500-2,000
• Sub-zero weather package, $500-1,000
• Solid Panoramic roof or metal roof, $0 - included (opening panoramic roof $1,000 extra)
• Leather interior, $1,500-2,000
• Premium interior & lighting, $1,500-2,000
• Ultra high-fidelity sound, $500-1,500
• Battery upgrade, $5,000-7,500 (expecting maybe 55kWh and 70kWh batteries at $100/kWh actual cost with added profit)
• Upgraded paint, $750-1,000 (only value likely not to change much)
• Performance (requires AWD, battery upgrade), $5,000-10,000 (may come with other details like the rotors or a spoiler just like S)
• Data connectivity (user access to online features inside car and with remote access, OTA updates still available free without), $1,000-2,000
• Wheel/tire upgrades, $2,500-5,000

I'm expecting a fully optioned car to top out at $70,000, if not less (possibly even closer to $60,000). I just can't see a way for all the upgrades to go up beyond that. For those worried about cannibalizing model S sales, I think it's clear that Tesla will be adding more stuff to the S to make it more of a luxury item to justify the price. They'll be able to use the additional margins afforded to them by the gigafactory to do this.

Elon said that he expects the average order to be $42,000 so the average person will opt for only $7,000 in upgrades (or $5,800 if this number included destination fee). The average person will opt for the most popular upgrades (which will probably be supercharging plus AWD or battery) plus paint upgrade and a couple of other smaller upgrades like winter package or interior upgrades.

 

[MP3Mike]

I took the price differential between a base S70, and a P90DL, which is $48k...divided it by 1/2, and added to the base price of the Model 3. This came to $59,000.00.

I hope you are correct, but I doubt all of the options are going to be half-off. (Certainly not Autopilot, wheels, and the charger.)

I assumed 50% for Performance and Ludicrous, which I am hoping for, but won't be surprised if they cost more.

 

[Justmurr]

its that "performance" upgrade with estimates of $10k that kills ya!!
I'm all about a battery upgrade and dual motors which puts you at $46-47k...but to then add another $10g's?!
Is it a package upgrade of suspension, brakes, wheels? Seats? Trim?
Assume there's a software aspect - didn't I see those upgrades are expected to be cheaper?
Ugh...I want it all but I know I can't do it ....
I think there are plenty of us non-owners that agree that once you get over $50k range....things start to become harder to justify.

 

[FlatSix911]

For those of you that are looking to build out your Model 3 to $60k...
Why wouldn't you purchase a 2014 P85 Performance now with 20k miles for less? One of the main reasons I reserved the Model 3 is the 35k price point. (I think that the majority or reservations will also be closer to the $35k-42k avg that Tesla uses) Remember our Tesla will be worth 50-57% after three years.

Remember that Tesla believes that the average price before taxes and fees will be $42K, therefore an equal number of reservations above and below $42K ... ie for every $35K order there will be another $50K order as an example.

 

[geoffreak]

Remember that Tesla believes that the average price before taxes and fees will be $42K, therefore an equal number of reservations above and below $42K ... ie for every $35K order there will be another $50K order as an example.

Close, but that's more of a median. In the real world, a mean is skewed heavily by outliers.

To get an average of $42k, more than 50% of buyers can be below this amount with a small subset of buyers well above. For example, if 5 orders were 4x $32k and 1x $70k, the average would be $42k (but the median would be $35k). I think this points to Tesla expecting lots of base or cars with few upgrades and a decent number of maxed out vehicles.

 

[AU1985]

Here is what is what I am hoping for if they keeping options down for the M3

AWD=3K
AP=2K
Leather Seating=2K or Supercharging for same price

For a grand total of 42K...Not to shabby

 

[igotzzoom]

I'm assuming the "baked-in" capabilities can be unlocked for a fee anytime after purchase? In that case, I'd get the important hardware (performance/dual motor) and upgrade to the unlockable goodies when the budget permits.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I hope you are correct, but I doubt all of the options are going to be half-off. (Certainly not Autopilot, wheels, and the charger.)

I assumed 50% for Performance and Ludicrous, which I am hoping for, but won't be surprised if they cost more.

Yeah, I might be expecting the money to go a bit father than it will, just too many unknowns at this point.

 

[wallet.dat]

Given:
Model S base AWD to P90D = 43%
Model X base AWD to P90D = 35%
Model 3 base AWD of $39,000

When:
Model 3 base AWD to PXXD is median of S and X
then Model 3 PXXD will be $39,000 + 39%, or $54,210

Model 3 base AWD to PXXD is extrapolated from S and X (factoring in guesstimated effect of economy of scale)
then Model 3 PXXD will be $39,000 + 27%, or $49,530

That's my take, and this ignores other desirable options like Autopilot, Ludicrous, etc. Numbers were rounded and are approximations, of course

 

[NC-3]

Another reason why the median configured price should be lower...

Model S owners by the very MSRP of the vehicle (and presumed income of the driver) are able to afford a lot more expensive options. After initial sales to Model 3 enthusiast customers, the Model 3 is aimed at a whole different economic market. Most of these potential buyers do not have the option to load up the car in order to hopefully move up the priority of their delivery.

For example- take a car equipped to be $50k, after a full rebate of -7,500, and a 5yr loan at 1.99% the monthly premium excluding taxes would be around $745 per month. Stretching out to 6yrs at 3.69% is still $660 per month.

 

[Sp4rky]

Another reason why the median configured price should be lower...

Model S owners by the very MSRP of the vehicle (and presumed income of the driver) are able to afford a lot more expensive options. After initial sales to Model 3 enthusiast customers, the Model 3 is aimed at a whole different economic market. Most of these potential buyers do not have the option to load up the car in order to hopefully move up the priority of their delivery.

For example- take a car equipped to be $50k, after a full rebate of -7,500, and a 5yr loan at 1.99% the monthly premium excluding taxes would be around $745 per month. Stretching out to 6yrs at 3.69% is still $660 per month.

Yes, that seems like a reasonable payment for this car equipped at $50k.

Take BMW for example. How much is a 328i? $38,350
Then, look at the performance model, the M3. $63,500

For people who are looking for a PXXD, they'll be looking at spending $60k+ for a well equipped equivalent of a BMW M3. The cars are the same size. They are built from the same platform. I'm sure Model S owners will also be purchasing Model 3's to replace other vehicles in their household. They do have the income to support a fully loaded Model 3 in addition to their S (and maybe even X).

Even at $35k, I would not say that the Model 3 is truly meant for the masses. The tax credit is questionable if you are buying a base Model 3. Once you get down to a price point of $20-25k, then you have something that nearly everyone with a decent job can afford. People who are expecting to pay less than $60k for a fully loaded Model 3 may want to rethink their savings strategy (IMHO). But hey, I'm all for paying less money so hopefully Tesla proves me wrong. But, going by Tesla's history, they'll make the $35k price point, but you'll at least want the $42k version and lust over the $60k+ version.

 

[Hayden]

First i need to now what the base price is going to be in Europe (i'm from Belgium, sorry for the pore Englisch)
My wish list:
Metallic color
Pano roof
Next generation leather seats
Premium interior
Auto pilot
Super charger
Air suspension

 

[Sp4rky]

Given:
Model S base AWD to P90D = 43%
Model X base AWD to P90D = 35%
Model 3 base AWD of $39,000

When:
Model 3 base AWD to PXXD is median of S and X
then Model 3 PXXD will be $39,000 + 39%, or $54,210

Model 3 base AWD to PXXD is extrapolated from S and X (factoring in guesstimated effect of economy of scale)
then Model 3 PXXD will be $39,000 + 27%, or $49,530

That's my take, and this ignores other desirable options like Autopilot, Ludicrous, etc. Numbers were rounded and are approximations, of course

And I totally agree with your maths. Even taking the lower figure and adding all the cowbells that I'm sure most people will want, you're looking at $60k easy.

 

[Jason Bourne]

For all the people talking about their budgets, are you doing any kind of projection (up or down) to take in to account that your budget in 2 years could be different than it is today?
Speaking for myself, because I am in my prime earning years, I expect to be making more money, have built more wealth, and have a larger budget by 2018. Maybe some people would not correlate that to mean that they would spend more money on a car. But for me, my car budget is a percentage of my overall financial picture. So as my over picture gets brighter, my car budget rises with it.