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Has anyone else spent time calculating possible Model 3 pricing...

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Well I am not sure how the projection that battery prices will go down will actually turn out.

With increase in demand comes increase in the price of the raw material to make battery. Apparently price of lithium has doubled.

If twice the amount of batteries need to be made (of current world production, according to EM, then you bet price of Li will continue to increase).

Tesla, tech icons scramble for lithium as prices double
 
JB Straubel has said that Lithium contributes very little to the cost of a battery. Most of the cost is manufacturing, then other raw materials. Not to say that a doubling in price is nothing, but it shouldn't have too much of an effect on the final battery price.

Lithium also isn't a rare material, but there just enough many people mining it to meet demand at this moment. Many lithium mines have been announced in recent years to keep up with demand, so there shouldn't be a shortage. Tesla is working on getting its lithium sourced directly for the future by working directly with mine operators and cutting out any middle-men.
 
It will be $3000 if added later as opposed to $2500 ordering when it was first built

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