Gizmotoy
Active Member
Interesting post. Where did this part come from? Didn't look like the spreadsheet. A guess?
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@artsci - sorry for your pain. Thanks for starting this thread.
@Troy - great organization, data, research. Thanks!
IMHO, you both along with the other contributors to this thread are capturing a real problem. That said, there's a lot of confirmation bias here: folks who have had good experiences are in all likelihood under-represented.
In my case, I've had nothing but good experiences at the Massachusetts SCs -- Watertown and Dedham -- through March or April of this year. Then I moved to Maryland. I have a few accumulated issues I'd like help with, so I guess sooner or later I'll be visiting Rockville or one of the other SCs(*).
But still, net, three years in, Tesla SC experience has been awesome -- and, YES, I have had some serious problems to resolve as well as my usual petty details.
Alan
(*)Tigard? Huh. From DC, it's not really such a long trip, now, is it?
@Troy - great organization, data, research. Thanks!
IMHO, you both along with the other contributors to this thread are capturing a real problem. That said, there's a lot of confirmation bias here: folks who have had good experiences are in all likelihood under-represented.
In my case, I've had nothing but good experiences at the Massachusetts SCs -- Watertown and Dedham -- through March or April of this year. Then I moved to Maryland. I have a few accumulated issues I'd like help with, so I guess sooner or later I'll be visiting Rockville or one of the other SCs(*).
But still, net, three years in, Tesla SC experience has been awesome -- and, YES, I have had some serious problems to resolve as well as my usual petty details.
Alan
(*)Tigard? Huh. From DC, it's not really such a long trip, now, is it?
Maybe you can't comprehend it, but franchised dealers would be the death of Tesla.
Also I think the more recent "mainstream" buyers who aren't as committed to the cause are less tolerant of the growing pains.
I guess my First OA that said high amp charger was just a nicer cable and HPWC was only for cosmetics would be a better solution?
Closest service center is 3 hours away. And none in the next state to me (SC). If they don't do something tesla will die all on its own.
Someone like me funding a dealership and only being paid on performance after being trained would be worse than the above advice I got from an "advisor"?
I haven't looked into that.
I used 750 Teslas per service center as a criteria. It is based on my research when I created this topic: Tesla Service Center Stats I checked a few topics to see when people started complaining about wait times and compared the timing to the number of Teslas per service center in that country at that time. Before Tesla went over 750 units in a country, there were few or no complaints about wait times. Also, at the end of Q2 2016, Tesla's global average was 1068 vehicles per service center and there were already too many complaints. Therefore the ideal number should be less than that.
HERE is a page from Denmark that was mentioned in an article in Electrek. In Google Chrome you can right-click and translate it if you want. More than half of the reviews are negative. About 42% are 1 star. Denmark is at 1687 which is obviously far too high.
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
A bit of good news for Bay Area Tesla owners...
Another dedicated Service Center is planned for the Mt. View area in early 2017.
This should help with the current 1 month wait and backlog of service appointments.
My contact tells me this is a stand alone service center with no retail sales facility.
Another dedicated Service Center is planned for the Mt. View area in early 2017.
This should help with the current 1 month wait and backlog of service appointments.
My contact tells me this is a stand alone service center with no retail sales facility.
somnambule
Member
I'm not Troy and this isn't "mainstream" brands, but here's an attempt at a comparison.
I see 73 US service centers listed on the Tesla site (source). I'm guessing there are ~70,000 Teslas in the US at the moment. That works out to ~1000 Teslas/SC.
Audi lists "more than 285" dealers in the US (source). Let's say 290.
BMW had 339 dealers in the US as of Dec 2015 (source)
Audi sold 202,000 vehicles in the US last year
BMW sold 346,000 vehicles in the US last year
Let's be conservative and assume Audi and BMW owners only go to the dealers for service in the first 4 years of ownership, which is the warranty/free service period. Assuming 10% sales growth YOY (I have no idea if that is accurate but seems within reason), that works out to ~2500 Audis/dealer and ~3500 BMWs/dealer.
So Tesla is still servicing 2.5x to 3.5x fewer cars per SC on average compared to Audi and BMW. These numbers in reality are probably much higher as a lot of folks go to the dealer long after the first 4 years. On the other hand, I'm guessing the average Tesla SC is a much smaller facility than the average Audi or BMW dealer. So lots of caveats going both ways.
However, this crude comparison does suggest that Tesla isn't dramatically behind in the number of SCs they need. So there's reason for optimism that once quality from the factory (esp. for the X) gets better, the service situation will improve even without a drastic increase in the number of SCs.
Wait what... Are you not including independents?
Before tesla I thought it was generally assumed you would never got to stealership I mean dealership for work unless it was covered. Tons of independent shops that can work on German cars or even specialize in them (let alone domestic).
How many independents would you trust to work on your tesla?
I guess everything can be skewed positive for tesla some how.
Did you miss this (emphasis mine)?
I suppose everything can be skewed negative, too, depending on your bias.
I Clearly misread it and for that I wrong.
Ive leased BMW Mercedes and Lexus. Only time at dealership was scheduled/included service that took less than half a day. Not one problem in 10 years of ownership. Maybe that was a better point.
Tesla SC is servicing 3x fewer cars seems like a stretch, but I'm strictly guessing. No facts.
If you click CTRL+F and search for "coming soon", you can see that 11 out of the 73, have not opened yet. The US has 62 service centers. Also, as of today, there are 89,173 Teslas in the US. Because of the 200,000 limit for the Federal Tax Credits, I've set up a daily counter for the USA sales here (scroll all the way to the right). The US average is in fact 89,173/62= 1438 Teslas per service center right now.
Let me add some details about Tesla US sales:
2010-2012 = 4,305 (Including the Roadster)
2013 = 17,825
2014 = 16,689
2015 = 25,202
2016 YTD = 25,152
Total: 89,173
2014 and 2015 USA sales were published by Tesla. You can click on the numbers to open the data source. I have data sources for other numbers as well but it requires some calculation.
This year alone, Tesla will sell about 41,024 units in the US. At the end of this year, US sales will reach 105,045 units. End of 2015 was 64,021.
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somnambule
Member
Sure, the specific numbers may be a bit off but the general point still stands. From a cars/SC perspective, Tesla is in better shape than the luxury ICE competition at the moment. So the current delays in obtaining service isn't because there aren't enough SCs. It's because the SCs don't have enough "capacity", there are more service issues per Tesla (MX, anyone?), parts delivery etc. isn't streamlined yet, or the issues are taking more time to address than the typical warranty repair. Likely a combination of all of these and possibly other factors.
I've been saying that one of the biggest challenges Tesla faces to get the III out is expanding their service capacity which is something most don't think of. Tesla could release an awesome car and still sink themselves if people have to wait months to get major/minor items fixed and that word of mouth spreads. This *sugar* isn't easy.
Shock-On-T
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No one really knows, because people generally post to forums only when they have problems.
For every person with a problem there may be 100 who've never had a problem (or it might be 10, or 2, or 1000).
Shock-On-T
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Because they would lose control of the customer experience completely.
Right now, even if it's not perfect, they are able to work to make it better. If they used dealerships it would be much harder to keep those dealerships up to their desired standard. Ie. now if they have a bad employee they can fire them, but they wouldn't be able to fire a dealer's employee.
Here is my big guess on the SC number. Sales are not well distributed across the country but the SCs are. So in Raleigh, I can get a next day appointment. In SF, it takes a month.
What makes it even more dramatic is that X's are in higher numbers in CA. And 2012 cars are in even higher relative numbers in CA. The relatively problem free 15/16 S's are in relatively higher proportion outside CA.
So somebody needs to the the math for CA and then for OCA (outside CA).
We have a SC and probably less than 1,000 S's. They are super concentrated and I see them daily but 50 miles away there are zero.
What makes it even more dramatic is that X's are in higher numbers in CA. And 2012 cars are in even higher relative numbers in CA. The relatively problem free 15/16 S's are in relatively higher proportion outside CA.
So somebody needs to the the math for CA and then for OCA (outside CA).
We have a SC and probably less than 1,000 S's. They are super concentrated and I see them daily but 50 miles away there are zero.
Shock-On-T
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That's very subtle, and quite possible correct.
Some of us (me) have followed Tesla for years and feel a sense of ambassadorship and pride in the mission, love the engineering, am so grateful such a product exists. I'd probably forgive Frosty if it slept with my wife.
As the cars are gaining more widespread appeal, there are more 'normal' people buying them, and they are used to perfectly-made (if boring as bat****) cars from 100 year old manufacturers.
No problem. End of Q2 2016 numbers:
CA = 34,032 Teslas, 18 service centers. 34,032/18= 1,891 Teslas per service center
USA = 80,422 Teslas, 61 service centers. 80,422/61= 1,318 Teslas per service center
USA excl CA = 46,390 Teslas, 43 service centers. 80,422/61= 1,079 Teslas per service center
California is the only state where we have detailed data because the CNCDA (California New Car Dealers Association) publishes Tesla numbers as well. Therefore I have already included California separately in both of my projects. Open one of these topics. Then in the opening message find the large table that shows the county names. On that table, you will see USA as well as USA/Canada.
Tesla Service Center Stats
Tesla Supercharger Stats
Let me add the data source for California. You can click on each of these numbers below to open the CNCDA PDF file and then click CTRL+F to search for Tesla:
Quarter / CA Tesla sales
Q3 2012 109
Q4 2012 1,113
Q1 2013 2,406
Q2 2013 2,308
Q3 2013 1,823
Q4 2013 1,793
Q1 2014 1,533
Q2 2014 954
Q3 2014 1,239
Q4 2014 2,384
Q1 2015 2,623
Q2 2015 2,526
Q3 2015 2,187
Q4 2015 3,130
Q1 2016 2,937
Q2 2016 4,967
Total 34,032
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Troy, great stats ... thanks for posting.
Interesting to note that almost half, (43%) of all US Tesla vehicles are sold in California... no wonder we have service issues.
