Have I done the right thing?

[Regulo]

Hi, experienced Tesla people. Do you think I've done the right thing? I really want a Model Y, but that seems a couple of years away yet, unless giga Berlin comes online a lot sooner than expected. I needed to change cars NOW, so looked into leasing a Model 3 for 3 years. Working out the cost over that time, it would seem to be a better idea to take the depreciation on a M 3, which seems low compared to a lot of other cars. So I've ordered a M3LR, in the expectation of trading it up to a MY in 3 years time. What are your thoughts? Will the demand for second hand M3's drop, or will there still be a good market in 3 years time.

 

[Dilly]

Hi, experienced Tesla people. Do you think I've done the right thing? I really want a Model Y, but that seems a couple of years away yet, unless giga Berlin comes online a lot sooner than expected. I needed to change cars NOW, so looked into leasing a Model 3 for 3 years. Working out the cost over that time, it would seem to be a better idea to take the depreciation on a M 3, which seems low compared to a lot of other cars. So I've ordered a M3LR, in the expectation of trading it up to a MY in 3 years time. What are your thoughts? Will the demand for second hand M3's drop, or will there still be a good market in 3 years time.

There’s bound to be a strong market for used EV’s as time passes. I wouldn’t worry at all.

 

[GRiLLA]

I doubt it will be 2 years for Model Y in the UK now, but who knows. Complete speculation, but RHD by Q1 2022 from Giga Berlin maybe. In the meantime might they start shipping form China, possibly, the Tesla sales guy I spoke to a couple of weeks ago said they would but .

I can only see increased demand for second hand model 3 as more people are waking up to EVs, just like new cars demand will outstrip supply. If that's a concern then take a lease for three years, everything is locked in.

If Model Y had been available when I got mine I probably would have taken it as hatch back seems a better idea and all my previous cars had been that way, but since having the 3 I now wouldn't see any reason to go to a Y. I can see how people with dogs need a hatch, but not much else.

 

[Nick77]

I'd expect Y's to start coming over in the first half of next year. They're still available to order in America.

 

[HenryT]

I doubt it will be 2 years for Model Y in the UK now, but who knows. Complete speculation, but RHD by Q1 2022 from Giga Berlin maybe. In the meantime might they start shipping form China, possibly, the Tesla sales guy I spoke to a couple of weeks ago said they would but .

I can only see increased demand for second hand model 3 as more people are waking up to EVs, just like new cars demand will outstrip supply. If that's a concern then take a lease for three years, everything is locked in.

If Model Y had been available when I got mine I probably would have taken it as hatch back seems a better idea and all my previous cars had been that way, but since having the 3 I now wouldn't see any reason to go to a Y. I can see how people with dogs need a hatch, but not much else.

I think the popular view is that the RHD MYs are likely to come from China not Berlin, as China would then be serving all the RHD markets.

On the hatchback v boot, I was initially holding out for a MY but gave up waiting and bought a M3. So far it has been great but I can see an advantage in the potential to carry bulky items in a MY which wouldn't fit into the M3 boot. Fortunately, we have my wife's ID.3 for trips to the tip for now. I can see a MY being an option next time round though.

 

[Nick77]

I took a mate out in my M3 to play golf and he was cussing me saying he wanted one now and that drive was going to cost him £50k! He said it wasn't quite right for him though as he often had his parents and kids in for trips and needed a 7 seater if possible.

I sent him the link to the Y with the extra row of seats and he's mad at me again!

 

[Bobly]

One way to look at it is to compare against the lease cost, they’re factoring in depreciation, finance costs, operating expenses and some profit for themselves, and they’re probably pretty good at forecasting to ensure they’re not making a loss. So if you take (total cost of the car) - (total lease cost), that gives you a pretty safe “floor” for future value to base your sums for buying outright on (I doubt they get much discount from Tesla, if any at all).

the other thing to bear in mind is the “opportunity cost” of dropping £50k cash on a car, could that money be working for you better if invested elsewhere, and if so taking advantage of fairly low interest rates at the moment for some of the cost may be a good hedge/compromise.

 

[GRiLLA]

I think the popular view is that the RHD MYs are likely to come from China not Berlin, as China would then be serving all the RHD markets.

There may be organisational logic in that, but the costs of shipping and import duty would be very different. I've done the tour of the Mini plant in Oxford, they build all models left and right on the same production line e.g. this car is a RHD diesel clubman, next is a LHD electric, seems to work for them.

 

[Jason71]

I think the op will be fine with the depreciation. its the 2 year prediction I think may turn out to be wrong

I heard somewhere that there are right hand drive MY's being tested in Australia. so it could be China RHD production is near. We were the first RHD market so I guess it could be quite soon if we are getting MiC cars.

having said that, If we get the MiC cars then that would mean we would not get the improvements planned for the Berlin model like the mega casting and more importantly the new batteries. I wonder how much longer we will have to wait for those then? so maybe worth holding out for them.

I used to work in the auto industry and one piece of advice I always gave people was unless you are desperate to be first never buy one of the first cars of a new model ( either new or second hand). There are always problems and some don't even get discovered for a few years so may not be fixed on new cars until after the 4 year face lift so the older a model is less exciting but the more reliable. I think Tesla are a lot quicker to address problems than traditional makers who lock the design for years at a time. but..... Tesla also start off with more problems and introduce others trying to fix the first ones and so on.
So my point is I would not want to be first in line for the first RHD MiG or MiC MY. 3 years from now sounds like a good plan to me whenever it actually arrives here

 

[Bobly]

I think the op will be fine with the depreciation. its the 2 year prediction I think may turn out to be wrong

I heard somewhere that there are right hand drive MY's being tested in Australia. so it could be China RHD production is near. We were the first RHD market so I guess it could be quite soon if we are getting MiC cars.

having said that, If we get the MiC cars then that would mean we would not get the improvements planned for the Berlin model like the mega casting and more importantly the new batteries. I wonder how much longer we will have to wait for those then? so maybe worth holding out for them.

I used to work in the auto industry and one piece of advice I always gave people was unless you are desperate to be first never buy one of the first cars of a new model ( either new or second hand). There are always problems and some don't even get discovered for a few years so may not be fixed on new cars until after the 4 year face lift so the older a model is less exciting but the more reliable. I think Tesla are a lot quicker to address problems than traditional makers who lock the design for years at a time. but..... Tesla also start off with more problems and introduce others trying to fix the first ones and so on.
So my point is I would not want to be first in line for the first RHD MiG or MiC MY. 3 years from now sounds like a good plan to me whenever it actually arrives here

They opened orders in Hong Kong (RHD Market) back in July and I think delivery was initially slated for September so production (in China) could/should be underway by now.

 

[SpareHeadOne]

They opened orders in Hong Kong (RHD Market) back in July and I think delivery was initially slated for September so production (in China) could/should be underway by now.

It probably makes logistical sense to make the RHD versions in China, almost all of the RHD markets are closer - Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, etc. We're a bit of an outlier here in the UK and Brexit may well be levelling the import costs playing field - but that's all pure speculation on my part.

 

[OliLondon]

I was in exactly the same situation, I wanted a Y performance, got impatient and bought a M3 LR to tie me over, I will keep it for 2 years, I bought in on PCP and fingers crossed I can sell it in 2 years time for 4/5k less than I paid then trade up to a Y - I would avoid lease as you are tied in

 

[Regulo]

Thanks for all your thoughts. I'm happy that I've (probably) made the right choice. I just hope all will be well with the Model 3, I really shouldn't read all the trouble owners have had, it makes me apprehensive! The Mitsubishi PHEV Outlander I have now hasn't given any trouble at all for 7 years, so I've been spoilt.

 

[Bobly]

I was in exactly the same situation, I wanted a Y performance, got impatient and bought a M3 LR to tie me over, I will keep it for 2 years, I bought in on PCP and fingers crossed I can sell it in 2 years time for 4/5k less than I paid then trade up to a Y - I would avoid lease as you are tied in

Unless the used car market continues to stay in its current bonkers state, I think you’d be very lucky to see only 4/5k (10%) depreciation over 2 years. Plus there’s a minimum of ~2.5k in interest on the PCP.

 

[Dilly]

Thanks for all your thoughts. I'm happy that I've (probably) made the right choice. I just hope all will be well with the Model 3, I really shouldn't read all the trouble owners have had, it makes me apprehensive! The Mitsubishi PHEV Outlander I have now hasn't given any trouble at all for 7 years, so I've been spoilt.

I‘ve had no issues from day one with the 3. And of course, no issues with the Outlander other than being nagged to put 15 litres of petrol in every three months like clockwork.

 

[AnthonyLR]

Thanks for all your thoughts. I'm happy that I've (probably) made the right choice. I just hope all will be well with the Model 3, I really shouldn't read all the trouble owners have had, it makes me apprehensive! The Mitsubishi PHEV Outlander I have now hasn't given any trouble at all for 7 years, so I've been spoilt.

I’ve just done my 10,000th mile in my M3 since March 2020 and I absolutely love it. My Mrs is waiting for the MY.

 

[Mr Miserable]

I don't think we'll be waiting too long for MIC Model Y to hit our shores.
Berlin should be up to speed by the end of the year to supply the EU LHD market.
The Model 3 is not depreciating as much as expected although you couldn't tell that from the leasing figures I have seen.
The leasing companies are ripping people off in my opinion.
Buying a Model 3 could work out to be the cheapest car you ever owned.

 

[SpareHeadOne]

I was in exactly the same situation, I wanted a Y performance, got impatient and bought a M3 LR to tie me over, I will keep it for 2 years, I bought in on PCP and fingers crossed I can sell it in 2 years time for 4/5k less than I paid then trade up to a Y - I would avoid lease as you are tied in

It's a tricky call, the M3 is starting to get some proper competition for range now so while the current S/H prices are astonishing I'd expect the landscape to change in the next 2-3 years as more new alternatives appear and the cars launching/launched this year start to hit the second hand market.

The real risk is new battery tech arriving that doubles the range or knocks £10k off the new prices and makes the older ones much less attractive.

Bottom line: Don't buy a car you aren't prepared to either keep or take a financial bath from if things go south.

 

[kelvin 660]

This website gives you a good guide of car deprecation under "normal" conditions...

Car Depreciation Calculator

Estimate the depreciation of a new or used vehicle based on our modelling data or enter your own depreciation rate. Your vehicle can be new at purchase or second hand and we will calculate the depreciation based upon age and mileage.

www.themoneycalculator.com

 

[Filbert1884]

Maybe I'm missing something, but if you're leasing why do you care about used prices?