Have I done the right thing?

[GeorgeSymonds]

Friends of mine in Switzerland say Model Y reservations in Europe are well down on expectations as people are wanting to wait for the Berlin factory and the newer battery. If demand is down and knowing RHD are in production, it could be that the Model Y comes to the UK fairly soon. I've seen someone comment on Facebook they were told in Q4 this year.

The truth however is anybodies guess and it's entirely possible Tesla haven't even made a decision yet. They've not opened the order page for the Model Y yet but I'm sure if they did they'd get a load of Q3 cancellations for the Model 3, so if I was a betting man, we'll hear nothing until the end of Sept and they kno whow Europe sales are going and then the order book will open for the UK but only if they can deliver before the end of the year.

Depreciation wise, again you're in the lap of unknowns. There is talk of bigger batteries, there are a LOT of company cars which will be flooding the market in a few years when they go back, there will be a lot more competition, the supercharging network may be open to other makes, etc.

But I've also been thinking this type of thing for years and it doesn't really seem to have happened yet.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

The Model 3 is not depreciating as much as expected although you couldn't tell that from the leasing figures I have seen.

I think the explanation to your point is the first half is based on whats happened, and the second half is a prediction on what will happen. I certainly think there is some profiting on company cars because they know the benefits, but there will be thousands of Model 3s dropping into the market in 2 years time and onwards as company cars go to auction.

 

[Regulo]

Who are you replying to Filbert1884? I'm the OP and I'm buying!! I just wondered whether depreciation over 3 years would be worse than the cost of a lease.

 

[HenryT]

I just wondered whether depreciation over 3 years would be worse than the cost of a lease.

If it is the leasing companies will be in trouble. They don't often get their sums that wrong.

 

[Durzel]

It's a tricky call, the M3 is starting to get some proper competition for range now so while the current S/H prices are astonishing I'd expect the landscape to change in the next 2-3 years as more new alternatives appear and the cars launching/launched this year start to hit the second hand market.

The real risk is new battery tech arriving that doubles the range or knocks £10k off the new prices and makes the older ones much less attractive.

Bottom line: Don't buy a car you aren't prepared to either keep or take a financial bath from if things go south.

This is the only significant risk in my opinion. To be honest we've been spoilt by pretty crazy residuals of late. As long as you don't expect it to be an investment that appreciates in value, you'll be fine I think.

If you're leasing then it's just a bet with the leasing company. If you're not in a position to buy outright then you don't really have much option either way, to be blunt. You could argue - even more bluntly - that there has to be something in it for the lease company to even offer you credit where otherwise you wouldn't be able to get the car at all? If they're not making anything after your payments, relative to the depreciation/resale value, then what's in it for them?

 

[whitelight]

I don't think we'll be waiting too long for MIC Model Y to hit our shores.
Berlin should be up to speed by the end of the year to supply the EU LHD market.
The Model 3 is not depreciating as much as expected although you couldn't tell that from the leasing figures I have seen.
The leasing companies are ripping people off in my opinion.
Buying a Model 3 could work out to be the cheapest car you ever owned.

Not sure about the cheapest, just sold my Lexus for what I paid for it nearly 3 yrs ago, though the exceptional market has a lot to do with that. In a more normal market, I agree, I'm expecting the M3 to hold it's value pretty well... Which has a lot to do with why I've bought one.

 

[Filbert1884]

Who are you replying to Filbert1884? I'm the OP and I'm buying!! I just wondered whether depreciation over 3 years would be worse than the cost of a lease.

Ah ok, sorry, must have misunderstood.

 

[roadcred]

Hi, experienced Tesla people. Do you think I've done the right thing? I really want a Model Y, but that seems a couple of years away yet, unless giga Berlin comes online a lot sooner than expected. I needed to change cars NOW, so looked into leasing a Model 3 for 3 years. Working out the cost over that time, it would seem to be a better idea to take the depreciation on a M 3, which seems low compared to a lot of other cars. So I've ordered a M3LR, in the expectation of trading it up to a MY in 3 years time. What are your thoughts? Will the demand for second hand M3's drop, or will there still be a good market in 3 years time.

Regulo
I am just about to pick up my 3rd M3 . Got my first a M3P- in Sept 2019, sold 11 months later for £2k more than I paid for it. Got my second a M3LR in Sept 2020, sold in July 2021, depreciation £2k. Pick up a new M3LR next week. Please don't lease or PCP. Depreciation is negligible and you can get your 1000 free supercharger miles each time!

 

[SpareHeadOne]

Regulo
I am just about to pick up my 3rd M3 . Got my first a M3P- in Sept 2019, sold 11 months later for £2k more than I paid for it. Got my second a M3LR in Sept 2020, sold in July 2021, depreciation £2k. Pick up a new M3LR next week. Please don't lease or PCP. Depreciation is negligible and you can get your 1000 free supercharger miles each time!

I don't fully follow your point, I see that if depreciation is low but the leasing people build in a substantial figure then leasing will be very poor value, but I don't see why that would apply to PCP where you would just build up more equity than anticipated?

 

[Regulo]

Thanks for all your thoughts. My delivery date is 24th September. Looking forward to finding out all the good and hopefully not too bad things! I've been really spoilt with the Mitsubishi PHEV - had absolutely zero issues with it in 7 years.