Have Model 3 design specs been revised?

[PRSIST]

There has been a lot of chatter all over the Tesla/EV sites about the Model 3. Will it have this or will it have that? One of the latest is a comparison chart between the Model S and the Model 3.

We’re being told that the Model 3 is NOT a smaller Model S. We’re told that it will have less than 100 ways to configure it, so less options than the Model S.

Well here is my theory and I would love to know if any of you have thought the same thing.

I am under the opinion that Tesla DID intend the Model 3 to be a smaller Model S with comparable options. I think Tesla saw the M3 as a continuation of their incredible premium EV line, but then came over 375,000 reservations for the M3. Those reservations made Tesla have to re-think the car. I think they realized that there would be no way they could spend the time building a Model 3 they had initially envisioned and still get them out to the over 370,000 reservation holders in a timely manner.

Tesla immediately realized that they were going to have to do some major work on streamlining production of the Model 3. And that meant that the Model 3 initially envisioned by Tesla had to be down scaled to something they could produce quickly. So the resulting Model 3 might be nice to look at and ride in, but void of any embellishments to make the car the sweet ride that a lot of buyers are looking to own.

The first 375,000 reservation holders will see few options for the Model 3, but after that, the car will see more options like the Model S.

What do you think?

 

[S'toon]

This is not a unique hypothesis. I've made musings similar to yours. We know for example, the P models and AWD won't be coming until next year. So given the shift to ramping up the production quicker than originally announced, it seems logical they cut things out of the original plan to get it out of the door quicker. Elon has stated something like they learned the lesson of the X and not make things complicated.

 

[tracksyde]

I do think they probably had to re-think some options to simplify production.. but I also believe that the "100 configurations" may involve more bundling and less à la carte

This may be a clue of things to come..

Tesla streamlines ordering with new configurator ahead of Model 3 launch

Looks like they're kind of bundling some options together for the S/X soon ("premium upgrades package"?)

 

[ecarfan]

I am under the opinion that Tesla DID intend the Model 3 to be a smaller Model S with comparable options.

I disagree. There is no compelling evidence to support that position. What actually happened is that after the Model 3 reveal over a year ago, speculation and hype from people outside Tesla created an inaccurate public perception of what the Model 3 would actually consist of. Now that we are getting close to the first Model 3 vehicles being delivered, Tesla is simply trying to bring perception back to reality.

Could Tesla have done a better job of managing Model 3 expectations? With the benefit of hindsight it's easy to see what they could have done. But if you look at what Tesla stated last year as to what Model 3 specs and features would be -- which was just a few specifics -- Tesla has been consistent.

As soon as the Model 3 goes into production and the full specs are released, all the inaccurate speculation and unfounded rumors will be a distant memory. The car is going to be a massive success because it has no direct competition and there is obviously significant demand.

 

[22522]

I am under the opinion that Tesla DID intend the Model 3 to be a smaller Model S with comparable options. I think Tesla saw the M3 as a continuation of their incredible premium EV line,....

What do you think?

Hi, the rethink was on the possible speed of introduction. The goal has always been as fast as possible. The reservations presented an opportunity to go even faster.

The target market for the 3 has never changed - best selling car in the USA. That would be an Accord or Camry, or someone driving an Accord or Camry. The problem is getting a desirable EV to prices that "that many" people will pay.

Hence the Gigafactory.

If you look at the entire market for 3-series and C-Class vehicles, it is not enough to reach Tesla's goals.

They are aiming at, and must hit, the Accord crowd with this vehicle.

 

[Big-T]

Hi, the rethink was on the possible speed of introduction. The goal has always been as fast as possible. The reservations presented an opportunity to go even faster.

The target market for the 3 has never changed - best selling car in the USA. That would be an Accord or Camry, or someone driving an Accord or Camry. The problem is getting a desirable EV to prices that "that many" people will pay.

Hence the Gigafactory.

If you look at the entire market for 3-series and C-Class vehicles, it is not enough to reach Tesla's goals.

They are aiming at, and must hit, the Accord crowd with this vehicle.

I agree. The problem is, the Accord crowd expects a ton of amenities at 35k, along with some standard items that most cars have but Tesla does not (Instrument cluster as an example) - I don't think it's going to be easy to convince them to stretch their budgets for something with a minimalist interior. Folks outside of this forum are not in the Tesla distortion field.

 

[22522]

I agree. The problem is, the Accord crowd expects a ton of amenities at 35k, along with some standard items that most cars have but Tesla does not (Instrument cluster as an example) - I don't think it's going to be easy to convince them to stretch their budgets for something with a minimalist interior. Folks outside of this forum are not in the Tesla distortion field.

Yeah, I think you have a point. Leather costs very little, and at a fair cost, could make people who are stretching not feel taken advantage of.

Elon wants everyone who placed a deposit to get the full tax credit. So the first 400,000 are $27.5K.

That will help a lot.

There is also some selection going on. They are trying to democracize the interior of the car. Social people will like that. So rather than just name your cars "Civic" and "Accord" make them personify those words.

The interior sound level has to be low, and the seats have to work, or else you end up with customers going elsewhere for discomfort reasons (maybe unvoiced). The car will just sit. The central screen begs conversation, but if conversation is unpleasant, you may end up with the empty set.

The thing is: Tesla is good at recognizing empty set decisions and avoiding them. At least better than most car makers.

So, yes there is a distortion field.
Customer selection will happen. People who buy the car will be social talkers.
If the car supports social, it will be a success.

 

[McHoffa]

Yeah, I think you have a point. Leather costs very little, and at a fair cost, could make people who are stretching not feel taken advantage of.

Elon wants everyone who placed a deposit to get the full tax credit. So the first 400,000 are $27.5K.

That will help a lot.

There is also some selection going on. They are trying to democracize the interior of the car. Social people will like that. So rather than just name your cars "Civic" and "Accord" make them personify those words.

The interior sound level has to be low, and the seats have to work, or else you end up with customers going elsewhere for discomfort reasons (maybe unvoiced). The car will just sit. The central screen begs conversation, but if conversation is unpleasant, you may end up with the empty set.

The thing is: Tesla is good at recognizing empty set decisions and avoiding them. At least better than most car makers.

So, yes there is a distortion field.
Customer selection will happen. People who buy the car will be social talkers.
If the car supports social, it will be a success.

It's $27,500 if you owe $7500 in taxes for the year. I would bet many base Model 3 buyers won't, especially if they're single, and for them getting the full credit won't matter. I know one personally here in my small town.

There are options our <$30k 2011 Kia Optima has that may not be available, or at least standard, like heated and cooled seats up front and heated in the back and heated steering wheel.

I'll definitely prefer driving the Model 3, but losing options from a six year old cheaper car on a more expensive new car will be disappointing

 

[nd4spd569]

I disagree. There is no compelling evidence to support that position. What actually happened is that after the Model 3 reveal over a year ago, speculation and hype from people outside Tesla created an inaccurate public perception of what the Model 3 would actually consist of. Now that we are getting close to the first Model 3 vehicles being delivered, Tesla is simply trying to bring perception back to reality.

Could Tesla have done a better job of managing Model 3 expectations? With the benefit of hindsight it's easy to see what they could have done. But if you look at what Tesla stated last year as to what Model 3 specs and features would be -- which was just a few specifics -- Tesla has been consistent.

As soon as the Model 3 goes into production and the full specs are released, all the inaccurate speculation and unfounded rumors will be a distant memory. The car is going to be a massive success because it has no direct competition and there is obviously significant demand.

I think Elon tweets didn't help. Especially the tweet about waiting until you see the real interior. Like a spaceship. Except the interior didn't really change.

 

[Foxhound199]

What actually happened is that after the Model 3 reveal over a year ago, speculation and hype from people outside Tesla created an inaccurate public perception of what the Model 3 would actually consist of.

It's weird how it shifted from speculation that it might possibly not have autopilot or supercharging before the reveal, and now we have people complaining they might not get a medical-grade HEPA filtration, air suspension, or power lift trunks. I decided in 2014 that the Model 3 would be my next car, and here's what I expected at the time: A (weaker) Tesla powertrain, a (smaller) Tesla battery pack, a compact sedan exterior with Tesla design style, seats, and a steering wheel. Anything else is a bonus in my mind. I think the unconventional dash is really what spurred a lot of speculation about new technology. I'm still not sure I understand it completely, but there's no way they would risk the future of the company on such a gamble unless they were confident drivers would like it.

 

[TEG]

Tesla had plans for Model 3 from near the beginning. The early business plans called for a sports car to establish the brand (and make EVs desirable), a premium sedan to establish cashflow and supplier relations, then the mainstream sedan that will make a huge impact. Some things weren't anticipated, and perhaps slowed down overall momentum a bit, like the X's falcon doors, and the preoccupation with self driving technologies that weren't really on the radar back then. But overall, if you looked at early Tesla presentations you knew that something like this was the plan all along. I always assumed that they would drop a lot of features to get it down to the mainstream price point. I always expected the S & X would be more premium and more feature rich. Overall, I am pleased with the decisions they made to get to their goals. Sure, the day one reservation volume was a massive vote of demand validation, and gave them every reason to jump forward with full gusto, but I don't think they have changed their plans so dramatically as this thread suggests, I think the limited options and staged feature introduction is mostly just "par for the course" to be successful on a model like this, and not some "about face". Having performance and AWD versions available from day one could have been initial "stretch goals" that they decided to delay since they know they have enough demand to sell out of any variant they build right now.

I recall some investor docs showed the board bestowing Elon with various stock based incentives that mature when Model 3 is in some kind of volume production. So I think he has a personal financial benefit to getting things going as quickly as possible. On the other hand, based on the success of Space-X and Tesla stock price, maybe money incentives are starting to become less important, and it is more just about satisfying customers and changing the world.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Hi, the rethink was on the possible speed of introduction. The goal has always been as fast as possible. The reservations presented an opportunity to go even faster.

The target market for the 3 has never changed - best selling car in the USA. That would be an Accord or Camry, or someone driving an Accord or Camry. The problem is getting a desirable EV to prices that "that many" people will pay.

Hence the Gigafactory.

If you look at the entire market for 3-series and C-Class vehicles, it is not enough to reach Tesla's goals.

They are aiming at, and must hit, the Accord crowd with this vehicle.

Nope, don't really agree. The 3 series sells about 500k per year globally. That's about how much the Model 3 is expected to sell. I think you are underestimating how much the premium sedan market sells.

 

[3Victoria]

I'll definitely prefer driving the Model 3, but losing options from a six year old cheaper car on a more expensive new car will be disappointing

But you are disregarding the benefits ... sleak, quiet, quick, updatable, clean ... and good for the environment .... priceless.

 

[TEG]

Bettter aero (lower CD) and fitting into smaller parking spaces are two ways that Model 3 > Model S...

 

[22522]

It's $27,500 if you owe $7500 in taxes for the year. I would bet many base Model 3 buyers won't, especially if they're single, and for them getting the full credit won't matter. I know one personally here in my small town.

There are options our <$30k 2011 Kia Optima has that may not be available, or at least standard, like heated and cooled seats up front and heated in the back and heated steering wheel.

I'll definitely prefer driving the Model 3, but losing options from a six year old cheaper car on a more expensive new car will be disappointing

Thanks for mentioning the Korean companies. I went the the auto show and looked at a lot of cars. There cars seemed like the most customer focused of the bunch. The designers of the other cars seemed to be playing to different audiences.