Hawaii - Model 3 reservations

[dpodoll]

Please delete

 

[StephenM]

If you're thinking about placing a deposit for a 3, keep in mind that the $7500 federal tax credit may be phased out before you get your 3 delivered. The tax credit drops to 50% in the two quarters following the sale of the 200,000th Tesla to a US customer, then to 25% in the following two quarters. Reference: IRS Instructions for Form 8936.

Since deliveries of the 3 will likely not start until early 2018, assuming TM hits their targets for 2016 production of 80-90k vehicles (some of which are going to China and Europe), there's a very real possibility that TM will hit the 200,000 US vehicle sales sometime shortly after starting deliveries of the 3, and a lot of folks are going to be disappointed to find out that they may only get $3750 or $1875. Some are suggesting that although there will not be a "signature" 3, that highly optioned 3s will get produced first. Worst case scenario, the 3 is delayed to late 2018 and there's no credit available at all.

Good point. I think TΞSLA will (admittedly uncharacteristically) deliver the Model 3 on time. Elon is laser-focused on this goal and has reaffirmed on numerous occasions how important it was to have it release in lock-step with the gigafactory for economical reasons. Then again, it is TΞSLA and focused or not they are heading into unchartered territory with regards to volume manufacturing, and have hedged their position by also bringing TΞSLA energy on-line, which would make it a little less crucial to have Model 3 rolling out on time.

Some relevant math with regards to gmtom's post.
The 200,000 is U.S. deliveries, and thus far this is what we know:

2012 ~3k units (all U.S.)

2013 22,450 units most in U.S. (17,650)

2014 35,000 units (18,480 U.S.)

2015 50,580 units (26,566 U.S.)

2016 80k-90k projected. Assuming 55% U.S. deliveries 46,750 in U.S.

I'm not sure what will be guided for 2017, but we're sitting at 112,446 U.S. deliveries (with projected numbers for 2016) and there should be growth for 2017 so there isn't much room for Model 3 before the reductions start to occur. I'd guess about 30k-40k units if it launches on time and don't forget that it TΞSLA will still be producing Model S/X as it is rolling out the 3 in 2018.

 

[dsmith2189]

If you're thinking about placing a deposit for a 3, keep in mind that the $7500 federal tax credit may be phased out before you get your 3 delivered. The tax credit drops to 50% in the two quarters following the sale of the 200,000th Tesla to a US customer, then to 25% in the following two quarters. Reference: IRS Instructions for Form 8936.

Since deliveries of the 3 will likely not start until early 2018, assuming TM hits their targets for 2016 production of 80-90k vehicles (some of which are going to China and Europe), there's a very real possibility that TM will hit the 200,000 US vehicle sales sometime shortly after starting deliveries of the 3, and a lot of folks are going to be disappointed to find out that they may only get $3750 or $1875. Some are suggesting that although there will not be a "signature" 3, that highly optioned 3s will get produced first. Worst case scenario, the 3 is delayed to late 2018 and there's no credit available at all.

Good point. I think TΞSLA will (admittedly uncharacteristically) deliver the Model 3 on time. Elon is laser-focused on this goal and has reaffirmed on numerous occasions how important it was to have it release in lock-step with the gigafactory for economical reasons. Then again, it is TΞSLA and focused or not they are heading into unchartered territory with regards to volume manufacturing, and have hedged their position by also bringing TΞSLA energy on-line, which would make it a little less crucial to have Model 3 rolling out on time.

Some relevant math with regards to gmtom's post.
The 200,000 is U.S. deliveries, and thus far this is what we know:

2012 ~3k units (all U.S.)

2013 22,450 units most in U.S. (17,650)

2014 35,000 units (18,480 U.S.)

2015 50,580 units (26,566 U.S.)

2016 80k-90k projected. Assuming 55% U.S. deliveries 46,750 in U.S.

I'm not sure what will be guided for 2017, but we're sitting at 112,446 U.S. deliveries (with projected numbers for 2016) and there should be growth for 2017 so there isn't much room for Model 3 before the reductions start to occur. I'd guess about 30k-40k units if it launches on time and don't forget that it TΞSLA will still be producing Model S/X as it is rolling out the 3 in 2018.

all good points, however I was under the impression that the 200K ceiling referred to a single model (US sales) from a manufacturer and not their entire sales fleet. They are still offering $7,500 on the leaf .
here are the sales numbers from insideEVs.com.

US Sales
Year	Roadster	Model S	Model X	Leaf
Other	1,900
2012		2,650		9,819
2013		17,650		22,610
2014		16,689		30,200
2015		25,202	214	17,269
Jan-2016		850	370	755
Total	1,900	63,041	584	80,653

 

[Akikiki]

all good points, however I was under the impression that the 200K ceiling referred to a single model

You are correct. It refers to a single model. The Model S gets 200K, Model X gets 200K and guess what? Model 3 gets its 200K. If the break the Model 3 into both a sedan and a SUV, or truck too, the each get 200K. Doesn't matter if they share door handles, cruise control stems or seats.

 

[dsmith2189]

When I was at the SC today I was talking about Model III reservations and they asked me if I had an idea on how many current owners were going to put down the 1K deposit.

 

[gmtom1]

You are correct. It refers to a single model. The Model S gets 200K, Model X gets 200K and guess what? Model 3 gets its 200K. If the break the Model 3 into both a sedan and a SUV, or truck too, the each get 200K. Doesn't matter if they share door handles, cruise control stems or seats.

Sorry, but it's 200k per manufacturer. From the IRS instructions: "The credit for vehicles with at least four wheels is subject to a phaseout (reduction) once the vehicle manufacturer (or, for a foreign manufacturer, its U.S. distributor) sells 200,000 of these vehicles to a retailer for use in the United States after 2009."

Statutory reference from 26 USC § 30D: "(2) Phaseout periodFor purposes of this subsection, the phaseout period is the period beginning with the secondcalendar quarter following the calendar quarter which includes the first date on which the numberof new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles manufactured by the manufacturer of thevehicle referred to in paragraph (1) sold for use in the United States after December 31, 2009, is atleast 200,000."

Also, see the Motley Fool's take here. and other articles here and here

As you noted, the Leaf has not reached 200k yet either, but some are worried about what's going to happen to the Leaf too since Nissan is taking forever to come out with their next gen Leaf.

 

[Akikiki]

Uh-ho.

 

[dpodoll]

Wonder if we can get them to open up at midnight the 31st to take our deposits?

Spoke with local sales today about a midnight opening. First he laughed and said I could do it online the 1st. We talked a little, and by the time we hung up he is going to bring it up at a team meeting that is happening soon.

 

[G'sinHawaii]

Spoke with local sales today about a midnight opening. First he laughed and said I could do it online the 1st. We talked a little, and by the time we hung up he is going to bring it up at a team meeting that is happening soon.

I guess they are getting hammered with all the questions, as I called today too.... they are expecting lines, and they don't know yet, but possible both the Ala Moana location that opens back up next week as well as the Service center, but they are in the dark as much as we are...

he said I just get in line with everyone else when i asked if current owners can get in the side door

I tried...

 

[dsmith2189]

I guess they are getting hammered with all the questions, as I called today too.... they are expecting lines, and they don't know yet, but possible both the Ala Moana location that opens back up next week as well as the Service center, but they are in the dark as much as we are...

he said I just get in line with everyone else when i asked if current owners can get in the side door

I tried...

I'm not sure how long the lines will be. the lack of details on options (even after the reveal) will temper peoples decision to rush down and plop down $1K. Elon has even said that the Model III will not have all the options of the Model S. I ordered my car two years before production began, but that was another time and the only car Tesla had to compare with was the Roadster. now with the Model S and the Model X, tesla has shown the other car companies what options were possible that were not on their ICE cars and the technology that others are now offering as options and even as standard has caught up with Tesla. I understand if the number of standard options are limited at the $35K price, but I want to know what the other add on options will be (and a ballpark price) or at least something for my deposit.

 

[StephenM]

It's a refundable deposit. I'm absolutely going to put down the $1k deposit if not only as a placeholder. The reservation pool will run very deep if you wait until too long. You have been forewarned :tongue:

Reminder to those that may not follow as closely as our local Hawaii group:

Expected to be approximately 20% smaller than a Model S
Will have at least 200 miles of "real-world" range
Will not have as many features as Model S/X to keep to promised base cost of $35k before any tax incentives
The benchmark they are using for being a compelling buy is the 3-series BMW line (expect at least the same amenities and performance!)

I trust Elon and Franz von Holzhausen to not make a weird-mobile, and based on the above targets expect this to be the world-beater that has been long in the making.
If it isn't, just defer or get a refund.

 

[drtko147]

I talked with my wife and we have decided to hold off on putting a reservation. I have a daughter going to start college this fall and another one next fall. We may wait until it has been out for a while. As we learned from the Model S, it sometimes is better to wait.

 

[gmtom1]

I talked with my wife and we have decided to hold off on putting a reservation. I have a daughter going to start college this fall and another one next fall. We may wait until it has been out for a while. As we learned from the Model S, it sometimes is better to wait.

There is some truth to that. Although TM service is excellent, there are bound to be more than a few production quality control issues in the initial production runs with the 3, as we are seeing now with the MX. I wonder if TM would allow you to "hold" a reservation once you get your configuration, such that you can get a production spot "on demand" at some point in the future?

I recently placed an MX reservation, but by the time they get to me, I'm thinking it will be summer/early fall, and they'll have worked out most of the bugs.

 

[spleen]

There is some truth to that. Although TM service is excellent, there are bound to be more than a few production quality control issues in the initial production runs with the 3, as we are seeing now with the MX. I wonder if TM would allow you to "hold" a reservation once you get your configuration, such that you can get a production spot "on demand" at some point in the future?

I recently placed an MX reservation, but by the time they get to me, I'm thinking it will be summer/early fall, and they'll have worked out most of the bugs.

Did you order a 90 or 70?

 

[gmtom1]

Did you order a 90 or 70?

Haven't been invited to configure yet, but I intend to order a 70. Can't afford the 90, unless I can find someone to sell my 3 year used MS to at almost new price. :tongue:

 

[spleen]

Haven't been invited to configure yet, but I intend to order a 70. Can't afford the 90, unless I can find someone to sell my 3 year used MS to at almost new price. :tongue:

The current mutterings are saying 70s may be available at end of current year, early 2017 at the rate things are going.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

For those thinking of holding off reserving an early 3, there's the risk of losing out on part/all of the $7,500 federal tax credit.

And, what's the deal with Waipahu vs Ala Moana? I'll be anointing myself an honorary islander for spring break week and will be joining you good folks at wherever they'll be taking deposits in person on March 31st! Will be driving down from the North Shore and it appears that Waipahu is less of a drive.

 

[drtko147]

For those thinking of holding off reserving an early 3, there's the risk of losing out on part/all of the $7,500 federal tax credit.

And, what's the deal with Waipahu vs Ala Moana? I'll be anointing myself an honorary islander for spring break week and will be joining you good folks at wherever they'll be taking deposits in person on March 31st! Will be driving down from the North Shore and it appears that Waipahu is less of a drive.

Because the Tesla Showroom at Ala Moana is a temporary location, they are not allowed to sell the Model S there so I suspect that they are not going to be taking reservations for the Model 3 there. Your best bet is to drive to the Waipahu/Waikele location to put the reservation in. It is less of a drive than going to the North Shore.

 

[dpodoll]

When I spoke with sales last week they had not finalized their plans for Model III reservations.

 

[spleen]

For those thinking of holding off reserving an early 3, there's the risk of losing out on part/all of the $7,500 federal tax credit.

And, what's the deal with Waipahu vs Ala Moana? I'll be anointing myself an honorary islander for spring break week and will be joining you good folks at wherever they'll be taking deposits in person on March 31st! Will be driving down from the North Shore and it appears that Waipahu is less of a drive.

Will be glad to have you join us!!