Hawaii - Model 3 reservations

[drtko147]

Here is the YouTube video for the event last night, if you missed it. I tried to watch it live but it kept buffering. I did go over to the Ala Moana Store to talk with the two salesmen. Apparently, there were about 15 people there watching it live.

 

[G'sinHawaii]

I also read the same thing as jkam is saying, they are blending the times by order time from the region, but also current owners are all being put into the western region... the RN numbers have no meaning as where we are in the queue as done with S and X reservations ... So I have read...

 

[G'sinHawaii]

I just got an email from Tesla!!!

To Configure my Model 3!!!!!


April fools!

Sorry I had to go there....

 

[spleen]

I just got an email from Tesla!!!

To Configure my Model 3!!!!!


April fools!

Sorry I had to go there....

hahaha, good one.

 

[spleen]

So I have to ask a question. And I apologize in advance if this sounds negative or anti-Tesla because that's really not the intent.

But having gone through the launch of the S and now the X and seeing actually what a reservation gets you, how many of us are electing to wait until we see the final product, price points, and make sure that the initial quality issues are resolved before ordering? Seeing as I had my reservation for the X for 2-3 years and people who ordered a P90DL after the reveal got their cars already, I'm not so sure what advantage there is in having the reservation any more. I could probably order the top of the line Model 3 after deliveries start and still get my car faster than some of you that are reserving now to order the base model.

I understand the point about the federal tax credit but I do think that there are going to be production issues with the first batch of Model 3s (like every Tesla launch to date) given the ramp up that needs to happen and whatever gets revealed at the 2nd reveal even if it doesn't have the Falcon Wings like the X. There's a significant advantage with waiting for the growing pains to end and the quality to improve. Plus you get the advantage of all of the fixes and improvements that go in after the early adopters beta test the product for you.

Anybody else with similar thoughts?

You guys know the drill. If I hadn't put the X reservation in and invested the $5K deposit in Tesla stock, I could have ordered the X after reveal and used the returns from the investment to pay for the P upgrade and the L upgrade and I would already have my X.

 

[dpodoll]

Just got my reservation email confirmation, and it shows up in My Tesla.

 

[StephenM]

So I have to ask a question. And I apologize in advance if this sounds negative or anti-Tesla because that's really not the intent.

But having gone through the launch of the S and now the X and seeing actually what a reservation gets you, how many of us are electing to wait until we see the final product, price points, and make sure that the initial quality issues are resolved before ordering? Seeing as I had my reservation for the X for 2-3 years and people who ordered a P90DL after the reveal got their cars already, I'm not so sure what advantage there is in having the reservation any more. I could probably order the top of the line Model 3 after deliveries start and still get my car faster than some of you that are reserving now to order the base model.

I understand the point about the federal tax credit but I do think that there are going to be production issues with the first batch of Model 3s (like every Tesla launch to date) given the ramp up that needs to happen and whatever gets revealed at the 2nd reveal even if it doesn't have the Falcon Wings like the X. There's a significant advantage with waiting for the growing pains to end and the quality to improve. Plus you get the advantage of all of the fixes and improvements that go in after the early adopters beta test the product for you.

Anybody else with similar thoughts?

You guys know the drill. If I hadn't put the X reservation in and invested the $5K deposit in Tesla stock, I could have ordered the X after reveal and used the returns from the investment to pay for the P upgrade and the L upgrade and I would already have my X.

I agree with you on all counts. There will undoubtedly be issues on a first batch of cars that will have to be fixed/fine-tuned, higher-optioned cars will likely get pushed out first, and the federal tax credits will start to dwindle to nothing. I do think there's one difference though, the sheer volume of this particular line and how quickly the reservations are coming in. If you wait until you see it to make a decision, I do not think it will be as easy as optioning out an order to get it quickly. In fact, I'm thinking you will end up waiting an additional 2 years or more from first sighting, even if Elon and Co. decide to up production. It's that massive. That Teslanxiety is a killer though. I only waited 4 months from November 2012 ordering to March 2013 delivery and I was bouncing off of the walls.

 

[spleen]

That Teslanxiety is a killer though. I only waited 4 months from November 2012 ordering to March 2013 delivery and I was bouncing off of the walls.

I agree with you on that one completely. One wonders how I remain sane waiting, lol

 

[nanimac]

I agree with you on that one completely. One wonders how I remain sane waiting, lol

The first time was hard but at least we were all in the same boat and I didn't know the power of Tesla
The second time was excruciating because I was under the Tesla spell and then suddenly without one for a couple months.
This time am a little more relaxed since I have my S and the 3 is just the icing on the cake (although an X would be nice too)

 

[Akikiki]

spleen, stephenM, I think you are right. Nanimac, uh-huh, waiting hurts. There are options though. Cancel your reservation. That solves the waiting problem. Buy a Bolt, that will help you wish you were waiting on a 3. I didn't claim these were good or fun options.

We do know though that if there's something that TM will need to do to fix or make right on their cars, they will bend over backward to make it right, make the customer happy.

Here's some questions. The $35,000 has been promised for a long time. How long after the first deliveries will it be before TM has to increase the price from the $35,000 for the base car?

What option packages could they had in the next 5 years that would make it "interesting" to sell a 2017 Model 3 and buy a 2020 Model 3? Few options? faster or more performance? So, if they will fix those things that need improvement, and there's not a lot to add, seems like its not a bad idea to get an early one? What do you think?

 

[dpodoll]

Akikiki - you are killing me, Thinking about selling your Model 3 for a 2020 model already.

 

[gmtom1]

My 3 RN# showed up on the site. I got #1081xxxx, but as others have said, I don't think the number sequence is much ado about nothing. I'm undecided if I want to order a 3 or not, but I figure the deposit is refundable any time, and given the lower starting price, I'll probably be able to get a higher optioned model 3, which will put me higher in the queue.

I can't recall if I heard it on the TT or RTL podcast, but I think the strategy of employees first is a good way to get the initial production bugs worked out in a very low-risk way. According to their last annual report, they have 13,000 employees, so even if only 20% of them order a 3 (very conservative guess), you're still talking about 2,600+ "test" vehicles to work out the bugs. Not to mention the next set of production vehicles will go to existing Tesla owners, which are also more likely to be aware of initial production bugs and forgiving.

I do think there's some risk to getting one of the first vehicles and missing out on later innovations, like the full autonomous driving mode and lie-flat seats that will be standard in the 2020 Model 3.

 

[spleen]

I do think there's some risk to getting one of the first vehicles and missing out on later innovations, like the full autonomous driving mode and lie-flat seats that will be standard in the 2020 Model 3.

I'm holding out for the lie-flat seats!!

 

[G'sinHawaii]

I was just thinking about something else, I read somewhere in the past on one of the threads... fro the model 3

part of the way they would prioritize orders of current orders were by current VIN??? maybe early VIN# will get a lower RN# ??

and supposedly, the early reporting on RN numbers were not sequential....

I guess we will know more once the model 3 tracker has more information

 

[Akikiki]

I think I am dreaming - that Elon just said the special gift for those that signed up on the 31st would be a free Model Y for every Model 3 they ordered.

That was for yesterday, the 31st. Its still the first day of April here, isn't it?

 

[gmtom1]

They're up to 232k Model 3 orders now. That's insane. TMs going to have some serious order priority and logistical challenges to handle with that kind of volume of reservations. Elon's been tweeting "Definitely going to need to rethink production planning" so hopefully that means TM is thinking that with this volume of orders, they may accelerate the timeframe to get the configuration and option details finalized so they can start collecting order data and converting some of the reservations to confirmed orders.

 

[Jkam]

I feel sorry for whoever works in Tesla's PR or complaint department. As most of us on this Hawaii forum are current Tesla owners, we already know to a certain degree how Tesla operates. I see on the general board many non Tesla owners fretting that they put their reservation in, see the charge on their credit card, but don't have a confirmation email or RN# yet. Some of them are patient, but some are just overly antsy and are calling their reps asking where their confirmation email and RN# is. I get it. We all had Tesla anxiety at some point and for many their Model 3 reservation is their first taste of it. But for Tesla handling this amount of reservations for Model 3 with so many "newbie" questions and anxieties by non Tesla owner reservations is going to be not fun. It is polite now because everyone is in the honeymoon stage, but I predict down the line some of the non owner Model 3 reservations are going to be a pain in the ass to work with. They are not going to be as patient as current Tesla owners are. They are going to be a lot more demanding. And let's face it whenever you start catering to the masses more, the level of conversation gets dumbed down. This is going to get interesting.

 

[spleen]

I feel sorry for whoever works in Tesla's PR or complaint department. As most of us on this Hawaii forum are current Tesla owners, we already know to a certain degree how Tesla operates. I see on the general board many non Tesla owners fretting that they put their reservation in, see the charge on their credit card, but don't have a confirmation email or RN# yet. Some of them are patient, but some are just overly antsy and are calling their reps asking where their confirmation email and RN# is. I get it. We all had Tesla anxiety at some point and for many their Model 3 reservation is their first taste of it. But for Tesla handling this amount of reservations for Model 3 with so many "newbie" questions and anxieties by non Tesla owner reservations is going to be not fun. It is polite now because everyone is in the honeymoon stage, but I predict down the line some of the non owner Model 3 reservations are going to be a pain in the ass to work with. They are not going to be as patient as current Tesla owners are. They are going to be a lot more demanding. And let's face it whenever you start catering to the masses more, the level of conversation gets dumbed down. This is going to get interesting.

I agree, some of these people will be disappointed, I think, in terms of communication (or lack thereof) from Tesla. Those of us that have been through it know what to expect but it may be a rude awakening to some of them. And the sheer volume will be challenging as well.

 

[Akikiki]

excellent observation, Jkam.

 

[StephenM]

Hundred percent agree with Jkam's statement/understatement. It will be a PR nightmare. There's just no way that they are prepared for this.