Help! Am I been ripped off by solar installer?

[EV Holiday]

Hello fellow club members,
I have gotten a quote from my local solar installer (Gold Coast) for the following system:

24 panels 315w LG neon2 + Enphase S270 Microinverter = 7.5KWH roof top complete installation

$13500 after solar rebate ($5800).

4xEnphase AC batteries fully installed @$8000 (4.8KWH)

I asked for Enphase products because our new house is partially shaded on the west side and I am shareholder in Enphase .

There are currently legitimate reasons to believe that Enphase might be in financial trouble and might not survive the next year if not taken over. I will spare you the details.

My question to you:

1. Am I paying too much for the systems?

2. Should I switch over to SolarEdge+PowerWall? (I have shares in SolarEdge and Tesla)

 

[scully]

Wow, it's all top quality stuff and a big system. Can you get some more quotes with the same equipment? Have you tried whirlpool? they will help you with prices.
Do you have to get it all at once? One option would be panels now and wait a while for the battery.
Do you have shares in redflow?

 

[EV Holiday]

Yeah, I wanted the most up to date hardware for long term research at home. Only with Enphase it's possible to scale with time without buying new big inverters. Their 6th gen MI is about to be released now. But right now it's all or nothing betting on AC batteries for them. Recently they took out a very bad term loan from a "payday loan" lender just to pay for their main supplier.

Enphase is currently worth only $85M with $100M already sunk into their AC batteries so far. Their business of 475000 worldwide install base and 10M inverters sold is currently worth $0 for investors. Last year revenue was $340M also worth $0 right now.

Now compared to RedFlow: Almost non existing revenue, battery originally designed for a totally different purpose, product was in development hell for 10+ years. The only reason their shares went up is because Simon Hackett came onboard. I am a big fan of Simon. He deserves every bit of the positive publicity with Tesla and RedFlow. But at $200M market cap right now, this is a bit rich for my poor taste.

RedFlow is the perfect story stock, just like Tesla. But Elon Musk is a better story teller than Simon Hackett.

Tesla is $33B. RedFlow is $200M. Normally it's easier for a small cap to do a 5x or 10x than a large cap to do 2x.

My suggestion would be: if you are willing to buy a RedFlow battery for self usage, then you should definitely buy the same amount in their shares.

Btw, I have cancelled the Enphase package and talking now with someone about Tesla Powerwall.

 

[Dborn]

I have Redflow shares doing nicely, thank you! I plan on going with Redflow battery for a number of reasons. not least of which is the ability to completely charge and discharge with no ill effects contrary to Li ion. Also therefore greater total usable capacity. Also, the batteries are modular and can therefore be serviced and parts changed out.
Wow, i did not know that Enphase was in such deep do doo.
Not sure if micro inverters cut it with regard to Redflow, but they are quite responsive and their tech support may be able assist here.
If it were me, and micro inverters were compatible, i would go with solar edge for warranty reasons, even though Enphase product has a good rep.
Otherwise, the prices you quote are reasonable having some knowledge of them with my own install here in Sydney.

 

[EV Holiday]

dear Dborn,
thank you very much for the assurance regarding the value of the Enphase package. I might just ask him to install a smaller PV array based on Enphase purely for research purpose.

Congrats on your profits made in RedFlow so far. There is surely more to come in the future. I was also very keen on their product until I studied the normal Flow Battery Design Principles. Looked to me that to be competitive in the future, their liquid tanks have to be much much bigger to address energy density issues. However I could be totally wrong in this aspect, I am no battery chemist.

From what I have seen so far, RedFlow has trouble validating major inverter brands like SMA. Also I was hoping to see some meaningful pre-orders for their product other than by their major shareholder Mr. Hackett himself.

Actually in the longterm, I suspect that many inverter companies will merge with battery companies. RedFlow is a great takeover candidate if the story is told right. I fully anticipate that Mr. Hackett will become a billionaire in this process.

Regarding Enphase: Most likely they will get taken over for a OK price by LG or SMA. Next year LG will launch some panels with integrated MI. SMA pretty much failed its endeavour in designing its own MI. It's a lot cheaper for someone just to buy out Enphase now than creating a new product. (disclaimer: I am shareholder in SMA Solar)