Help me decide if I buy FSD this weekend, or not! ONCE AND FOR ALL.

[Daniel in SD]

(On a more serious note, personally I would prefer EAP = Enhanced Autopilot, not Early Access Program which I’d simply call something else... This is reminiscent of SC being Service Center and Supercharger being SpC, both can’t be SC.)

I would prefer that people not refer to the Model 3 as an M3. Not going to happen. I think I'll just not abbreviate Enhanced Autopilot to avoid confusion and not think about Early Access Program at all since my software is already buggy enough.

 

[alsetym]

true. I bought EAP 2 years ago, still waiting on enhanced summon and better NOA. I’m in the boat of purchasing FSD recently. I feel like progress has been made, just not leaps and bounds like some were expecting. NOA still needs a lot of work and it feels like progress has stalled at points, but that for me doesn’t equal no progress. It also to me doesn’t equal future promises or advancements won’t occur. Although like you say, things can always get delayed and go off track. In some ways, my purchase of Teslas was understanding the uncertainty in new tech and having some tolerance for waiting and missed deadlines. And there are others who absolutely hate that, and it’s understandable. Tesla could communicate and be more realistic in goals, and make caveats to timeline promises more clear.

I don't know, I got my car just over a year ago. At the time AP barely worked. Then came NOA, summon, V9 etc. In a year! I think that really is leaps and bounds. They started FROM SCRATCH, what, 2 years ago? I guess this is where Elon stepped on his own toes by being overly aggressive on his optimism; what is leaps and bounds sounds like slow and steady

I also think that now that HW3 is coming on in a big way, there will be some pretty big leaps over the next...6 months (maybe )

So, should you buy FSD? I didn't buy a car sent from the future to sit on the sidelines and watch other people get cool new stuff, even if it isn't level 5 in my lifetime, it will still be cutting edge new cool technology. That is either interesting for you and worth the $ or it's not. FSD is a LUXURY item by any definition, as is a fancy new cell instead of a clunky burner. Do NOT buy it because you want/need a driverless car at any particular timeline. This is literally a problem that NO ONE has solved, or even knows if it is actually, truly possible! There are still experts in the field that say driverless cars are not possible, though those voices are going away now that we are getting objectively (i.e. google et al) closer in geofenced areas. Buy it if you want to be on the cutting edge for the next couple of years while a lot of interesting stuff happens.

 

[NHK X]

I don't know, I got my car just over a year ago. At the time AP barely worked. Then came NOA, summon, V9 etc. In a year! I think that really is leaps and bounds. They started FROM SCRATCH, what, 2 years ago? I guess this is where Elon stepped on his own toes by being overly aggressive on his optimism; what is leaps and bounds sounds like slow and steady

I also think that now that HW3 is coming on in a big way, there will be some pretty big leaps over the next...6 months (maybe )

So, should you buy FSD? I didn't buy a car sent from the future to sit on the sidelines and watch other people get cool new stuff, even if it isn't level 5 in my lifetime, it will still be cutting edge new cool technology. That is either interesting for you and worth the $ or it's not. FSD is a LUXURY item by any definition, as is a fancy new cell instead of a clunky burner. Do NOT buy it because you want/need a driverless car at any particular timeline. This is literally a problem that NO ONE has solved, or even knows if it is actually, truly possible! There are still experts in the field that say driverless cars are not possible, though those voices are going away now that we are getting objectively (i.e. google et al) closer in geofenced areas. Buy it if you want to be on the cutting edge for the next couple of years while a lot of interesting stuff happens.

yeah totally that was basically my thought too. Hard to quantify or prove, but my gut says this next year will bring some major changes. Again, not perfection, but new features that will become more dependable with time.

 

[NMCasey]

Robo taxi aside, for now, what is the benefit of FSD? I think there are more cameras in the pkg and the computer connection to those as well as sub-system support, such as breaking, acceleration, or steering. The enhanced AP was replaced with FSD, so get what Tesla offers now because, for reasons outlined above, costs will go up to upgrade and the original configuration is less problematic for the service center to actuate or inconvenient for you to not have your Tesla to drive while they do the upgrade.

There will be a day, not too distant in the future, when hardware and software driven interfaced systems will drive better than human beings. I have become a better driver with the AP on, that runs the FSD system albeit not "full self driving," and all the graphic and audio signaling greatly enriches my awareness of the car and my role in the care. The greatest contrast is to get in a fossil fuel vehicle again and sense the primitive nature of it compared to the Tesla. Like horse and buggy compared to a Model A or T Ford, with Elon Musk being contemporary Ford. Tesla and Rocket X can land boosters after delivering payload to space, so how much trouble or lack of faith do you have they won't be able to develop a Self Driving Tesla?

After paying $44K for the car and choice between performance, extended battery, and 2 motor versions, FSD pkg is very reasonable and I found the acceleration to be far superior to my BMW, the range to never go below 55% in city all day driving, and traction or need for four wheel drive not missed, BUT I would miss the FSD pkg and performance that enriches the AI artificial intelligence of the vehicle and improves my driving, when I am not using self driving. I am amazed to see the AP slow and speed up in a column of traffic (two way streets) and can imagine the upgrade to do the same thing without following the car in front of me to become possible very soon.

Best care available on the market today and FSD is a must!

 

[arghx7]

I'm back debating about FSD now. V10 and Smart Summon are getting released today and I've got a bit of FOMO even though realistically I would use Smart Summon maybe once a month at most once the novelty wears off. I wonder when/if the cost of FSD will go up? It's still $6000 (for people with standard autopilot) on the website right now.

 

[jebinc]

I'm back debating about FSD now. V10 and Smart Summon are getting released today and I've got a bit of FOMO even though realistically I would use Smart Summon maybe once a month at most once the novelty wears off. I wonder when/if the cost of FSD will go up? It's still $6000 (for people with standard autopilot) on the website right now.

I would “hold my water,” if I were you.

 

[arghx7]

Yeah, maybe I'll buy those all weather floor liners instead. It'll save me $5850.

 

[Evan1701]

I know there are a lot of unknowns about FSD, but only a couple people have noted that there are already features there today that make it worth considering. Primarily auto-lane change. I know NoA can be a bit finnicky, but in my limited experience, auto-lane change was a commute game changer. I drive on a very dangerous stretch of highway known for Mad Max-esque driving and weekly tractor trailer accidents. I am not immune to this either. Auto-lane change allows me to add a dash of additional safety to my daily commute, while also taking away some of the stress- is there someone in my blind spot? Am I hesitating too long? Is that gap big enough?

Is that feature alone worth $6000? To be honest, it might be. It's a stretch, but if you're like me and spend an hour on the road stressed to the gills (I was in a motorcycle accident years ago that sent me to the ER), is there an upper limit to making this thing everyone hates, dreads, fears, a little better?

 

[kqnjml]

I bought my Model X Raven 4
Months ago without FSD and was on the fence about the $6000 upgrade. I pulled the trigger today for the following reasons:
1. Tesla V10 improvements with AP and other features(summon,entertainment)
2. Upgrade Price May go up soon
3. $6000 sitting in bank account isn’t doing anything so enjoy current FSD features at this time.

 

[Teegray1124]

I bought my Model X Raven 4
Months ago without FSD and was on the fence about the $6000 upgrade. I pulled the trigger today for the following reasons:
1. Tesla V10 improvements with AP and other features(summon,entertainment)
2. Upgrade Price May go up soon
3. $6000 sitting in bank account isn’t doing anything so enjoy current FSD features at this time.

I love the justification lol.

 

[arghx7]

Elon announced price increase November 1st, and I think this one is actually going to happen. I’m now thinking of pulling the trigger.

 

[electronblue]

Elon announced price increase November 1st, and I think this one is actually going to happen. I’m now thinking of pulling the trigger.

Sure it will happen. Then again it also happened in 2018 and then in 2019 Tesla halved the price for a moment so you never know how it goes when they need a demand lever. It may also come down later.

 

[kqnjml]

I hope you’re right but everything seems to point to higher price for FSD. I believe once they get the stop sign and lights in city streets we’ll see the price bump. That would be a game changer in my opinion.

 

[electronblue]

I hope you’re right but everything seems to point to higher price for FSD. I believe once they get the stop sign and lights in city streets we’ll see the price bump. That would be a game changer in my opinion.

I guess it depends on do they need a demand (or cash generation) lever. The ”soft” software options like free Supercharging and AP/FSD pricing are very easy tools for Tesla to simulate demand as there is no hardware element involved, just flipping a switch.

But of course if they don’t need any demand levers, then the prices are likely to just rise.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think buying call options is the best idea. Buy 667 ($6k/$9 a piece) Jun 2021 call options @450. This gives some time just in case the robotaxi schedule slips to 2021. That should put Tesla's valuation at least equivalent to Waymo's estimated valuation of $175 billion which would be $977 a share. That works out to $351,509 which should be more than enough to pay for the FSD package even after the price increases.

I'd like to point out that someone who took my advice would have $87k right now. On the other hand they would have missed out on a few months of Smart Summon...

P.S. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
P.P.S. Seriously, don't take financial advice from random people on the internet.

 

[willow_hiller]

I'd like to point out that someone who took my advice would have $87k right now. On the other hand they would have missed out on a few months of Smart Summon...

P.S. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
P.P.S. Seriously, don't take financial advice from random people on the internet.

I couldn't afford FSD when it was $6k, and I was worried about my savings keeping pace with the increasing price of FSD. So I took some advice here around July 2019 and put what I could afford to lose into a TSLA "FSD fund." Even with just stock and no options, my FSD fund can now afford FSD plus tax.

That being said, now I don't want to liquidate the FSD fund. Waiting for the day when I can sell a single share or two for FSD and hold onto the rest for a long-term investment.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I couldn't afford FSD when it was $6k, and I was worried about my savings keeping pace with the increasing price of FSD. So I took some advice here around July 2019 and put what I could afford to lose into a TSLA "FSD fund." Even with just stock and no options, my FSD fund can now afford FSD plus tax.

That being said, now I don't want to liquidate the FSD fund. Waiting for the day when I can sell a single share or two for FSD and hold onto the rest for a long-term investment.

BTW The Stock Market is weird and irrational.
Regardless of the Q4 results, its likely the price will drop straight after, but possible it'll go up, or perhaps drop the next day and then recover.
And Q1 will be sucky, so when Tesla give some guidance on that, the price will go down, unless the guidance is less worse that was expected, in which case it'll go up.

So best advice is not to try to time the market, but do what works for you, and cashing in some shares at the current price could be a sensible decision.

 

[daniel]

...
P.P.S. Seriously, don't take financial advice from random people on the internet.

Truer words were never spoken.

... Waiting for the day when I can sell a single share or two for FSD and hold onto the rest for a long-term investment.

So, waiting for TSLA to reach $3,000 a share? I'm optimistic about Tesla and I'm not selling my shares. But it ain't going to $3,000 any time soon. If they released Level 5 FSD tomorrow, the stock would double; it wouldn't go to $3,000 for the simple reason that it takes time to build plant to produce more cars.

Having said that, it bears repeating:

Seriously, don't take financial advice from random people on the internet.

 

[RoBoRaT]

This!

I did not buy EAP/FSD when I ordered my Model 3 in Dec 2018, but bought AP/ FSD when it dropped to $5K.

But, I put $6K in Tesla stock when it went $180s, hoping it will be worth more when FSD shows progress...

I recently ordered an X but no FSD.

Good Luck!

Today, 18Feb2020.

6000 ÷ 180 = 33
33 x (850-180) = 22K

Today, FSD is 7K.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think buying call options is the best idea. Buy 667 ($6k/$9 a piece) Jun 2021 call options @450. This gives some time just in case the robotaxi schedule slips to 2021. That should put Tesla's valuation at least equivalent to Waymo's estimated valuation of $175 billion which would be $977 a share. That works out to $351,509 which should be more than enough to pay for the FSD package even after the price increases.

Really kicking myself for not believing that Tesla would achieve FSD (almost on schedule, no less!).
If I had taken my own advice I could cash out today for $791k and buy a fleet of robotaxis