You are correct, the sun will be at about the lowest point for the next two months from now, so good that your system is well-positioned and overproducing! Sounds like your credit balance should only keep going up each month til true-up.I have a 9.6Kw system and my roof is almost perfectly south facing with a low pitch and no obstructions at all.
The tesla installation tech actually mentioned solar situation doesn’t get much better than mine even with an articulating mount. Right now, I’m at 13Mw from April to Now and it was only half of April actually, and we’re halfway thru Nov so about 7 months of operation total to get to 13Mw. Tesla’s estimate for my system was 13Mw, and the tech said it would definitely be more than that (as it’s proven to be)
We use a TON of AC in the summer. My wife doesn’t like heat and if it’s 100 degrees outside, she’ll want it less than 70 inside. on summer nights she wants it even cooler in the bedroom than 70. This winter (we have gas hearing) we rarely use the heater. Again she loves the cold (though I freeze to death!)
So I would say we use FAR more electricity in the summer, very little in the winter, and still I’m producing about 40-45Kwh a day in winter (according to my sun angle app the sun is just about at its lowest angle in the sky, so that’s going to get only better) In the summer and spring I’m generating close to 70Kwh a day.
I’m really hoping I’m banking a S^%load of credits right now for my first trueup because I want to go heatpump instead of gas and that will increase my heating cost in winter, as well as replacing my gas stove with induction and charging at home far more than I am right now 👍🏼
Still I suggest to use up those credits til true-up where you can; they won't carry past April for next year's cycle when you might have the heat pump installed. So if you can better use them for charging at home now, rather than charging elsewhere, that's better than getting a check at true-up...