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Here's what September will bring to Model 3 ordering...

suwaneedad

Member
Dec 11, 2016
921
1,158
Atlanta
There's currently only about 7-8 weeks of production backlog, according to @Troy's awesome workbook.
Troy has educated me that the production backlog replaces itself at about half the rate that it exhausts itself.
So in 8 weeks, Tesla will have 4 weeks of production backlog. In 12 weeks, it will have 2 weeks of production backlog.
In 15 weeks, it will have no backlog.
There are 16 weeks remaining in 2018.

Later this month, we will see Tesla open up another wave of invitations to configure in order to solve for the above production capacity issue. Cream seats? EU LR orders? The possibilities are endless. But a new wave is coming, and it will come this month.

Why this month? Because a new wave of invites also creates a new wave of $2500 cash deposits. We saw the last week of June that AWD/P invites created a wave of cash onto Tesla's balance sheet right in time for quarter end. We will see that again this month because it's too easy and obvious for Tesla to not pull this lever heading into quarter end.

While I don't know whether EU invites are likely, or whether cream seats will arrive in order to induce fence-sitters in the US/CN to configure. What I hope Tesla will do, though, is open up SR configurations for US/CN Day One reservationists. Doing so will create a tidal wave of $2500 deposit cash by September 30, will give Tesla a "hard core smack down" of all the skeptics who insist Tesla never intends to sell a $35k Model 3, will provide a lucky few in the US the full $7500 federal tax credit with their SR purchase, and will provide an opportunity for Tesla to pre-announce the end of $35k Model 3 deposit-taking ("place your deposits by X date; orders for the SR Model 3 after that time will be priced at then-current-market which is likely to be higher"). Meanwhile, in production priority, Tesla can continue to unapologetically bias toward SRs which are 'loaded' over anyone truly configuring a $35k vehicle, in order to further their stated profit objectives.

The above is a massive and material win for Tesla; I hope they make these moves this month.

(Aside: In my perfect world, Tesla will reveal Model Y soon to put the other manufacturers in their place with their current announcements of 200mi 'competitors' to Tesla vehicles, and also take simultaneous enormous deposits for Model Y in order to let people buy their way into the Model Y production priority list as well as point out to Wall Street yet again that Tesla can raise funds from its customers at will; Wall Street exists to serve Tesla, not the other way around.)
 

tjkessler

Member
Mar 12, 2018
141
100
Campbell CA
I think you're right. For what it's worth I just had a delivery date scheduled for 9/10/18, for an LR AWD PUP EAP reserved on 7/17/17. So they're making enormous progress on the backlog.
 

stlmizzoufan

Member
Aug 10, 2018
44
40
St. Louis, Missouri
I think you lay out a good argument.

I'll also say this. Some of the "shorters" have been saying that the demand isn't there because Tesla is working through it's backlog faster than new orders are coming in. That is such a simplistic analysis it's comical. It's obvious that a large portion of the general public will not buy a car if they can't take delivery within a few weeks (or even a month). We American's don't have the patience. The predicted delivery wait of 2-4 months for LR and what will likely be similarly long (probably longer) wait for when they open up the SR configuration will keep many prospective buyers at bay. That is, until you can order and receive your vehicle in a very short period of time (and we will get there).

In other words, the delivery wait times obviously self-regulate the order stream. The fact the shorters don't admit this fact is crazy.
 

Uncle Paul

Well-Known Member
Nov 1, 2013
6,299
7,598
Canyon Lake,CA
Tesla has lots of ways to refill the backlog. Offer additional options, colors. Open up other countries, make Right Hand drive models, offer ventilated seats. They could also offer a free year of Supercharging to get people to order before a certain date. Of course the Big Daddy of all demand levels will be to open up the base model with the new, less expensive, battery pack standard interior and less expensive wheels.

Tesla has proven to be very successful at keeping the production lines humming at optimum volumes. Just when production catches up, they pull another demand lever. Model X and S are also doing better than ever.

Tesla is on the verge of being a real money machine.
 

tjkessler

Member
Mar 12, 2018
141
100
Campbell CA
They have registered some EU vins. That's similar to them registering a few AWD vins 6 months before producing them in quantity. Anyone know if they've registered SR vins?
 

AustinPowers

Total Smeghead
Jan 27, 2012
2,065
1,162
Frankfurt, Germany
I would like to know how many of the backlog are actually left hand drive reservations from EU and the rest of the world.
Tesla really should start sending out invitations to configure to those of us who have reserved on day one. Almost two and a half years of waiting is getting really aggravating, all the more so as new orders in the US and Canada only have to wait four weeks until delivery.
 

paco878

Member
Sep 6, 2018
54
37
Round Rock, Texas
Similar for us, Ordered 8/28, Default Black LR RWD, VIN on 8/30, Funded on 9/4, Delivery set for 9/27. I was floored by the turn around speed on all of this. 20 days from Delivery though.... I can live with that.
 

suwaneedad

Member
Dec 11, 2016
921
1,158
Atlanta
Similar for us, Ordered 8/28, Default Black LR RWD, VIN on 8/30, Funded on 9/4, Delivery set for 9/27. I was floored by the turn around speed on all of this. 20 days from Delivery though.... I can live with that.
Yes it's somehow a well-kept secret that anyone in the US (CN?) wanting an LR can have one within a month now. It's been that way since the June/July production push...no shortage of LRs anymore.
 
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suwaneedad

Member
Dec 11, 2016
921
1,158
Atlanta
You’re talking about reservations outside the USA and Canada, right? Reservations are done with in these regions, I thought.

What regions/countries are next?
Reservations are nowhere near done for the US/CN. There are people with invitations to configure who are waiting for, for example, white seats to be available in a non-AWD LR. Bam...demand lever. Or cream seats to be made available in any Model 3. Bam...demand lever. 20" wheels on a non-AWD LR. Bam...demand lever. Plenty of possible new permutations other than non-US/CN, and other than non-SR.

But what I hope, is that Day One US/CN opens up for 'loaded' SRs...people wanting SRs with PUP/19s/EAP/FSD/fancypaint. Those will provide sufficiently high demand to fill in the production capacity well through 12/31, while keeping the average selling price very high and margins nice and high as well.

That said, I feel like the first time an SR battery is shipped in Reno, that news will leak like the White House. And we haven't seen it yet.
 
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PaulJB

Member
Feb 2, 2016
144
119
Denver
Reservations are nowhere near done for the US/CN. There are people with invitations to configure who are waiting for, for example, white seats to be available in a non-AWD LR. Bam...demand lever. Or cream seats to be made available in any Model 3. Bam...demand lever. 20" wheels on a non-AWD LR. Bam...demand lever. Plenty of possible new permutations other than non-US/CN, and other than non-SR.

But what I hope, is that Day One US/CN opens up for 'loaded' SRs...people wanting SRs with PUP/19s/EAP/FSD/fancypaint. Those will provide sufficiently high demand to fill in the production capacity well through 12/31, while keeping the average selling price very high and margins nice and high as well.

That said, I feel like the first time an SR battery is shipped in Reno, that news will leak like the White House. And we haven't seen it yet.

I totally agree with Tesla's ability to pull demand levers to get additional orders for LR+PUP (e.g. white interior). But I kind of think most of those who could afford and would buy a $51K (aka Loaded) SR Model 3 just went ahead and got the LR+PUP w/o risk of losing part of the tax credit. When Tesla finally releases the SR version, I think it will just be SR+PUP first with everything else optional. My hope is that production will be efficient and quick enough that they can make a little profit on it soon...
 
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Park2670

Member
Feb 17, 2013
618
276
Utah
Fun to think of all the things that Tesla can do to keep the orders coming in faster than they can build them. Just one or two options opens up the possibilities for so many more people.
 

iaflyer

Member
Sep 21, 2017
110
119
Ann Arbor, MI
yeah, I saw that this morning. and look at the loan amount, the monthly amount that you would owe for a Tesla financed loan went down because you know have to put $10,000 down.
You can just edit the down payment. I changed it to $2,000 and it modified the monthly payment amount and let me move on.
 

Bays

Member
May 31, 2018
64
44
Bay Area
Can we really predict this much from Troy's notebook? In my mind, the further we are out from day 1 reservation holders, the less % of people ordering M3s will be adding their data to the spreadsheet. It's probably a Zipfian distribution.
 
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DanL3

Member
Feb 1, 2018
246
174
Vancouver, Washington
I fully agree with the OP. Something is about to happen.

in addition to configured backlog going down. Tesla has first production LRs in inventory and more parts for those cars in stock and on order. The second question is what can be done to sell the existing LR inventory. I would not be surprised to see. a cheaper Software reduced range become available for a short time to sell what has already been built. The current LR PUP is $49k. Would they sell more if they offered it with a range of 250 miles at $44k?
 
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TesFanboy

Member
Sep 3, 2018
129
93
Connecticut
With extending the immediate delivery of LR RWD to existing reservation holders sitting on the fence, Tesla may be toying with the idea that they can get $7,500 for sure to reduce the overall cost impact.. so may be thinking to get some x% out from the waiters with the new move. I bet they might change the "delivery" timeframe from within 4 weeks to immediate on Monday in the studio.

Since they have two variants (AWD/P) which are not that significantly different from line config and with significant backlog still, why the hck they can't do 100% AWD+P batches for a while.. why beg folks who haven't ordered yet when making the folks waiting for 3-4 months irritated and frustrated with their every #$$# move. Doesnt make sense as like anything with Tesla does anyway.. both in good and bad ways :)
 

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