There's currently only about 7-8 weeks of production backlog, according to @Troy's awesome workbook.
Troy has educated me that the production backlog replaces itself at about half the rate that it exhausts itself.
So in 8 weeks, Tesla will have 4 weeks of production backlog. In 12 weeks, it will have 2 weeks of production backlog.
In 15 weeks, it will have no backlog.
There are 16 weeks remaining in 2018.
Later this month, we will see Tesla open up another wave of invitations to configure in order to solve for the above production capacity issue. Cream seats? EU LR orders? The possibilities are endless. But a new wave is coming, and it will come this month.
Why this month? Because a new wave of invites also creates a new wave of $2500 cash deposits. We saw the last week of June that AWD/P invites created a wave of cash onto Tesla's balance sheet right in time for quarter end. We will see that again this month because it's too easy and obvious for Tesla to not pull this lever heading into quarter end.
While I don't know whether EU invites are likely, or whether cream seats will arrive in order to induce fence-sitters in the US/CN to configure. What I hope Tesla will do, though, is open up SR configurations for US/CN Day One reservationists. Doing so will create a tidal wave of $2500 deposit cash by September 30, will give Tesla a "hard core smack down" of all the skeptics who insist Tesla never intends to sell a $35k Model 3, will provide a lucky few in the US the full $7500 federal tax credit with their SR purchase, and will provide an opportunity for Tesla to pre-announce the end of $35k Model 3 deposit-taking ("place your deposits by X date; orders for the SR Model 3 after that time will be priced at then-current-market which is likely to be higher"). Meanwhile, in production priority, Tesla can continue to unapologetically bias toward SRs which are 'loaded' over anyone truly configuring a $35k vehicle, in order to further their stated profit objectives.
The above is a massive and material win for Tesla; I hope they make these moves this month.
(Aside: In my perfect world, Tesla will reveal Model Y soon to put the other manufacturers in their place with their current announcements of 200mi 'competitors' to Tesla vehicles, and also take simultaneous enormous deposits for Model Y in order to let people buy their way into the Model Y production priority list as well as point out to Wall Street yet again that Tesla can raise funds from its customers at will; Wall Street exists to serve Tesla, not the other way around.)
Troy has educated me that the production backlog replaces itself at about half the rate that it exhausts itself.
So in 8 weeks, Tesla will have 4 weeks of production backlog. In 12 weeks, it will have 2 weeks of production backlog.
In 15 weeks, it will have no backlog.
There are 16 weeks remaining in 2018.
Later this month, we will see Tesla open up another wave of invitations to configure in order to solve for the above production capacity issue. Cream seats? EU LR orders? The possibilities are endless. But a new wave is coming, and it will come this month.
Why this month? Because a new wave of invites also creates a new wave of $2500 cash deposits. We saw the last week of June that AWD/P invites created a wave of cash onto Tesla's balance sheet right in time for quarter end. We will see that again this month because it's too easy and obvious for Tesla to not pull this lever heading into quarter end.
While I don't know whether EU invites are likely, or whether cream seats will arrive in order to induce fence-sitters in the US/CN to configure. What I hope Tesla will do, though, is open up SR configurations for US/CN Day One reservationists. Doing so will create a tidal wave of $2500 deposit cash by September 30, will give Tesla a "hard core smack down" of all the skeptics who insist Tesla never intends to sell a $35k Model 3, will provide a lucky few in the US the full $7500 federal tax credit with their SR purchase, and will provide an opportunity for Tesla to pre-announce the end of $35k Model 3 deposit-taking ("place your deposits by X date; orders for the SR Model 3 after that time will be priced at then-current-market which is likely to be higher"). Meanwhile, in production priority, Tesla can continue to unapologetically bias toward SRs which are 'loaded' over anyone truly configuring a $35k vehicle, in order to further their stated profit objectives.
The above is a massive and material win for Tesla; I hope they make these moves this month.
(Aside: In my perfect world, Tesla will reveal Model Y soon to put the other manufacturers in their place with their current announcements of 200mi 'competitors' to Tesla vehicles, and also take simultaneous enormous deposits for Model Y in order to let people buy their way into the Model Y production priority list as well as point out to Wall Street yet again that Tesla can raise funds from its customers at will; Wall Street exists to serve Tesla, not the other way around.)
