Hey, y'all, Toyota believes BEVs are impossible...

[pbceng]

My prediction is that BYD/Mitsubishi are paving the path for how the auto industry implements plugin vehicles. I also would observe that both BYD/Mitsubishi tried earnestly to make EVs but found the consumer acceptance was far greater for their PHEVs than for their EVs.

I agree - public perception is part of the problem and it's easy to frighten people where experience is lacking. For me Tesla whether they succeed or not have made a huge impact by producing an EV that people desire whether they can afford it or not. They've also tackled the range anxiety issue with the supercharger network, which I'll freely admit I thought was a pure PR exercise when originally announced.

 

[miimura]

My prediction is that BYD/Mitsubishi are paving the path for how the auto industry implements plugin vehicles. I also would observe that both BYD/Mitsubishi tried earnestly to make EVs but found the consumer acceptance was far greater for their PHEVs than for their EVs.

PHEVs are good for consumers and automakers because they allow both parties to gain experience with plug-ins. Consumers need to get used to the improved experience of a vehicle driven by an electric motor and automakers need to get used to making high volume high quality power electronics, motors, battery packs, etc. PHEVs allow them to build significant quantities of things like high voltage battery chargers, drive inverters, etc. which also allows power semiconductor manufacturers to ramp up production capacity, and improve their product (like SiC).

 

[robertvg]

An interesting read is "Clean Disruption" by Tony Seba (a Silicon Valley entrepreneur) where he predicts that by 2030 the ICE and big oil will be obsolete. I'm not sure I agree, but it's an interesting read nonetheless.

I would certainly also recommend reading "Clean Disruption".
I'm sceptical about the part of autonomous vehicles but for the rest; with the current investments in solar and sustainable energy and the price of EV's and storage going down I don't see how this will not have a big impact on our old fossil energy industry.
I'm normally very reserved about hypes and trendwatchers predicting that everything will become very different.
But with Tesla EV's and the development in solar and storage I get the same exitement about the upcoming future that I had when I was an early internet user in 1993 and the first graphical internet browser (Mosaic) was released; you just want to tell *everybody* about what is coming...

I'm also ok if only half of what he predicts becomes reality

 

[AudubonB]

I'm reading Seba's article from today "Toyota vs Tesla" Toyota vs. Tesla – can hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles compete with EVs? : Renew Economy - very good - but I have a problem with one of the first pictures: Diagram 1. To me, it appears he's claiming that an EV travels 66km/40 miles on a kWh of electricity. Wow - so I can go 3,400 miles in my P85? Sign me up!

Where am I wrong here?

 

[Johan]

I'm reading Seba's article from today "Toyota vs Tesla" Toyota vs. Tesla – can hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles compete with EVs? : Renew Economy - very good - but I have a problem with one of the first pictures: Diagram 1. To me, it appears he's claiming that an EV travels 66km/40 miles on a kWh of electricity. Wow - so I can go 3,400 miles in my P85? Sign me up!

Where am I wrong here?

You're not wrong. That figure is messed up. We all know EVs are somewhere around 250 Wh/km which means about 4 km per 1 kWh.

I can't for the life of me understand how that chart came about. He claims it's from Better Place. Maybe their miscalculations (off by 1.5 orders of magnitude) was the reason they went bankrupt?

Here's the erroneous figure:

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I'm reading Seba's article from today "Toyota vs Tesla" Toyota vs. Tesla – can hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles compete with EVs? : Renew Economy - very good - but I have a problem with one of the first pictures: Diagram 1. To me, it appears he's claiming that an EV travels 66km/40 miles on a kWh of electricity. Wow - so I can go 3,400 miles in my P85? Sign me up!

Where am I wrong here?

I haven't looked into it at all, but perhaps the information pertains to theoretical maximums? Obviously, current EVs cannot achieve this, but future technologies may allow it?

I mean, the Mirai is the most efficient FCEV, and it isn't getting 14 miles/kWh either.

 

[ggr]

I vote for a misplaced decimal point.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I believe there are over a hundred thousand owners that would disagree with this.

I imagine Shigeyuki Hori would too. It's a shame Toyota went from kicking ass and taking names to this ridiculousness in a decade.

Right now, Hori and his team are focused on the future. "The original Prius proved that hybrid cars were technically feasible. The new model has shown that it can be attractive to consumers. The third generation has to be even more powerful and more fuel efficient," says Hori. His vision for Toyota's eco-friendly autos goes beyond the Prius line. "The next step is to apply hybrid technology to other models, and to reduce its price," he says. After that, he has his sights on dispensing with CO2-belching gasoline engines entirely: "Ultimately, the future is in electric power." It might sound like an eco-platitude. But if someone is going to bring an electric car to your driveway, there's a good chance Hori will be the one to do it.

The Eco-Car Engineers - Innovators - TIME

 

[wdolson]

I imagine Shigeyuki Hori would too. It's a shame Toyota went from kicking ass and taking names to this ridiculousness in a decade.

Right now, Hori and his team are focused on the future. "The original Prius proved that hybrid cars were technically feasible. The new model has shown that it can be attractive to consumers. The third generation has to be even more powerful and more fuel efficient," says Hori. His vision for Toyota's eco-friendly autos goes beyond the Prius line. "The next step is to apply hybrid technology to other models, and to reduce its price," he says. After that, he has his sights on dispensing with CO2-belching gasoline engines entirely: "Ultimately, the future is in electric power." It might sound like an eco-platitude. But if someone is going to bring an electric car to your driveway, there's a good chance Hori will be the one to do it.

The Eco-Car Engineers - Innovators - TIME

Toyota offers Hybrid options to most of their vehicles now. They even have a hybrid Highlander. Though very few plug in hybrids.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I think they only have 1 plug-in (Prius) too. And no EVs, which is where they really diverged from Hori's vision. Shame too, given how much he's accomplished.