Hello All: As my name suggests, I have made a bet against Tesla via long dated put options. I look forward to a healthy discussion from all sides.
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Hi, I’m a short seller
- Thread starter ShortSeller
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Welcome to TMC. We just need more of you.
I really like your spirit of hoping for company to fail, preferably go bankrupt so that stock can nose dive to zero.
Tesla enthusiast club is the perfect place for you to be.
Lets start: Elon is scam artist. Tesla leeches money from the govt. EVs are a fad. GW is a hoax.
Now your turn.
I really like your spirit of hoping for company to fail, preferably go bankrupt so that stock can nose dive to zero.
Tesla enthusiast club is the perfect place for you to be.
Lets start: Elon is scam artist. Tesla leeches money from the govt. EVs are a fad. GW is a hoax.
Now your turn.
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I just like to identify situations where the numbers make no sense, with bonus points if management has a history of issuing guidance that doesn’t come true. I’m fine with the tax incentives for green initiatives, I have to live on this planet too.
To be honest, I think you should stay with SeekingAlpha. People on the TMC board are just cult members who don't have a clue about investment and finance. These guys think Tesla will become one of the largest companies in the world. Anyone with a brain should know one car company can't become larger than all the car companies combined. That shows how clueless these cult members are.
Read from John Thompson and Jim Chanos, you are all set. Also, don't forget Mark Spiegel.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I bought in under $30. I've had CFOs tell me to sell TSLA when it hit $50, $85, $100, etc. They looked at the numbers and thought I was nuts for sticking with it. Now, they own TSLA, too.
You cannot just look at the numbers. Well, you can, but I think that's missing the bigger picture. I bought in because I saw something different than I'd ever seen before. I've done due diligence on companies countless times in my career. All companies have issues, Tesla included.
But I bought in for a couple of reasons:
1) I'd never ever seen a company where just about everyone in the company believed in the CEO's mission statement. Sure, all companies gave lip service, but no one actually believed it. Tesla is different. I've had shuttle bus drivers talk to me about how important the mission is. Engineers. Marketing folks. Manufacturing. Management. Designers. You cannot buy that, you cannot demand that - it has grown organically and it has brought them thru countless challenges, and,
2) I owned their product (an early Roadster). Not only was it unlike anything I'd driven before, they went above and beyond to do the right thing - not only for me, but for other owners. And while some here will disagree with me, my first-hand experience is that when management is aware of a situation, they will do the right thing. Every time. Even when it costs money and bandwidth.
2) I owned their product (an early Roadster). Not only was it unlike anything I'd driven before, they went above and beyond to do the right thing - not only for me, but for other owners. And while some here will disagree with me, my first-hand experience is that when management is aware of a situation, they will do the right thing. Every time. Even when it costs money and bandwidth.
How could I not buy in? If I thought I had any expertise at all in evaluating companies & their chance for success, I had to. So I did. And never have I regretted it.
If you time everything right, shorting will make you some money. If. If you get it wrong, it's going to hurt. And ultimately, you will have gotten it wrong, imo.
Thanks, I follow all those guys and I do read Seeking Alpha as well.
Enginerd
Member
Awesome job getting in at $30. If I only knew then where it would end up, I’d have done the same thing.I bought in under $30. I've had CFOs tell me to sell TSLA when it hit $50, $85, $100, etc. They looked at the numbers and thought I was nuts for sticking with it. Now, they own TSLA, too.
You cannot just look at the numbers. Well, you can, but I think that's missing the bigger picture. I bought in because I saw something different than I'd ever seen before. I've done due diligence on companies countless times in my career. All companies have issues, Tesla included.
But I bought in for a couple of reasons:
1) I'd never ever seen a company where just about everyone in the company believed in the CEO's mission statement. Sure, all companies gave lip service, but no one actually believed it. Tesla is different. I've had shuttle bus drivers talk to me about how important the mission is. Engineers. Marketing folks. Manufacturing. Management. Designers. You cannot buy that, you cannot demand that - it has grown organically and it has brought them thru countless challenges, and,
2) I owned their product (an early Roadster). Not only was it unlike anything I'd driven before, they went above and beyond to do the right thing - not only for me, but for other owners. And while some here will disagree with me, my first-hand experience is that when management is aware of a situation, they will do the right thing. Every time. Even when it costs money and bandwidth.
How could I not buy in? If I thought I had any expertise at all in evaluating companies & their chance for success, I had to. So I did. And never have I regretted it.
If you time everything right, shorting will make you some money. If. If you get it wrong, it's going to hurt. And ultimately, you will have gotten it wrong, imo.
I was joking about Seeking Alpha and John Thompson. In case you happen to be an inexperienced investor/trader, I want to make it clear, I own a lot of TSLA shares and fully expect this company to become the largest company in the world. Short at your own risk.
The first thing you need to re-examine is your comment that "the numbers make no sense"..believe me - I've spent hours at Seeking Alpha debating with hundreds of people who like you that stare at the income statement or financial balance sheet and are perplexed that Tesla is a) still operating and b) has a $48 billion market cap.
What are you missing? Two things:
1) Tesla is three companies - not one... One makes cars in Fremont, one makes Energy storage devices (Nevada and Buffalo) and the , third, and this is the one that everyone misses - is the global dealership network and gas station empire..i.e. superchargers.. Now SA authors focus on the first company business - making cars - and ignore the other two. I don't doubt that a smaller Tesla making only the Model S and X with a normal dealership network of independent businesses and no superchargers (or free electricity) would be profitable. Tesla has chosen to be ambitious - so massive expenditures on the third business segment that has been a huge money pit. Now, the supercharger network and Tesla showrooms and service centers can only be justified by a much larger volume of Tesla vehicles on the road..hence the Model 3. And I expect this third business to generate profits from 2019 going forward.
Also, remember that 90% of the reason for the Gigafactory is the Model 3. That alone is an investment of several billion dollars.
So, I believe the losses are not the result of incumbent management but part of a massive growth story that is just unfolding now..as the SG&A expenditures have been bloated for the last year..
2) Tesla is a huge global brand with worldwide interest in it's products. To get 400,000 to line up and make a $1000 deposit for a car two years before it's launch is unprecedented. The same thing is happening for the Roadster 2 and the Semi. All the financial statements show is the dollar amount of the deposits...not the intent of the buying community..Let's say that really only 200,000 Model 3 waiters will actually buy a version of this car - that's an order book of $44,000 x 200,000. That's $8.8 billion in backlog.
Now many will talk about the competition from profitable, well financed competitors who will destroy Tesla when their vehicles appear. Two reasons that will not happen: 1) No volume (200,000 per annum) is planned (Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf Jaguar I-Pace) because they are out-sourcing batteries for their vehicles and there aren't going to be enough battery packs to go around.
and 2) Dealerships are not interested in converting customers from high-margin ICE products to small margin Electric Cars with expected low service and maintenance opportunities for them.
I'm not saying Tesla isn't a risky investment but it's not as "nonsensical" as the balance sheet would suggest.
Good to hear, I started off my career in Big 4 accounting, now a mix of M&A, due diligence, and Corp. finance. I would say my experience is more than most, less than some
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
The point, though, is that I didn't know. I only knew that this company was different than any I'd seen before. And that's why I bought, not because of the numbers. Because if I'd relied on the numbers, I would have stayed far away.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I was going to ask whether you are worried about the size of the short bet against the company - that you were joining a crowded trade. But I think that question is functionally irrelevant for you as your position is via option ownership, so your worst case are the options expiring worthless for a 100% loss.
I've considered the opposite side of that trade, purchasing call options (with a limited downside of 100% loss if the options expired out of the money), but all I've actually done is purchased shares with cash and hold them.
If you have any thoughts about the aggregate size of the short against Tesla, and whether that's good for an incremental investor in a short position, I'm interested in hearing them.
They are many more shorts on TMC, but many are on peoples ignore list. Some are the same with different avataars. Hope they show up on this thread and you guys all pow-wow the short thesis ideas. That might help the other threads.
Will watch this thread as it goes along ....
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Same for me. After my first Model S test drive in '12, I got an X reservation, started looking for a Roadster, and picked up some shares for $27. I couldn't see how the company that made such amazing vehicles couldn't double or triple from there over the next few years.
Heh - I missed by a bit
Yeah if only we could predict the future, lol. I started my position about a year ago when the price was $300. I felt like a dummy when it then proceeded to $380. But now I’m in the green again
In that case, it's perfect. You know what you are doing.
Ok, here's one guy the pitchfork crowd here can confidently label a SHORT.
We still don't know if he is just an innocent short, or a troll ready to get to work.
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