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Hi, I’m a short seller

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It is pretty relevant to those early Model 3 owners. Nice try, though.

Clearly it doesn’t since people just keep buying them and have noted several times on this forum, no less, that fit and finish has improved from the very first ones off the line and overall is better than even current S and X build.

And since I actually own one I can add to the list that I don’t give a lick about any possible fit and finish issues someone else might find on my car. The car is phenomenal and everyone I show it to wants one. A friend has already configured theirs to replace a Prius and a neighbor has configured theirs to replace a Porsche.

So, yeah. Try again.
 
Having some familiarity with an engine plant, I don't get this logic. Most of what auto makers have is useful in making EVs. Most equipment used in making engines is probably depreciated over seven years. If 50 million EV are made per year in 2025, who is going to make these car?

If the big automakers can't transition to EVs rapidly due to sunk costs then its going to be a slow motion revolution. There's no one else to build the cars.

Or is Tesla about to announce the imminent construction of 50 factories to control half of a 50 million EV market?

Like UnknownSoldier says, the cars will come from China. BAIC doubled EV production last year. BAIc, Geely, and BYD are serious and SAIC might be serious too. And they are throwing up factories fact. Their batteries? Well, there's CATL, whose plans are as big as Tesla, and then there are a couple of others that nobody outside China ever hears about, and BYD makes its own.
 
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1) Somehow i'm approaching it from the opposite direction. I'm assuming every company is working hard and putting a lot of resources (intelligence, experience, R&D, capex) to use.
We have actual evidence that they aren't. I'm quite serious about this. BYD is working hard and putting a lot of resources to use -- so is Geely -- and apparently so is BAIC now. Nissan and Renault might be but they still seem to be making many mistakes.

Most of the others really are definitely not. Toyota and Fiat Chrysler most obviously are putting absolutely nothing in. Some large part of GM is fighting to not deliver EVs. Same with the rest.

Here's the clever thing: *Musk knew this before he invested in Tesla*. He watched the crushing of the EV-1 and the recall of the RAV4-EV before he put a single penny into electric cars. He had actual evidence of their behavior. He would never have funded Tesla otherwise.

3) I believe Tesla energy may contribute a bigger part to revenue, but next to nothing or even a loss to the bottom line. I don't see why they would have lower price or technological advantage
We have actual evidence that they do have an advantage. Don't ask me; ask South Australia and PG&E. Or ask the people who compare production costs; Tesla's leaked costs are better than anyone else's.

A lot of people don't realize this, but Musk's engineering skills are focused in cost engineering, which he is very very good at. I realized this during the Roadster period, when the leaked information about Musk's takeover of Tesla management all spilled out. Eberhard and the previous management had designed a car which was too expensive to build for the price they were selling it at; Musk personally figured out how to cut the costs while still satisfying the customers. He's very, very good at cost engineering. He's repeated this sort of cost engineering coup at SpaceX (multiple times) and at Tesla multiple times.

4) Hm. Maybe you have instead been very clever in the 2000s to avoid AOL, WorldCom, Lycos, Excite, Fireball, BOL, AskJeeves, Yahoo, Netscape, VA Linux systems, Mobilcom and hundreds of other companies
I did. My girlfriend suggested that all the fools short-selling the major tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Alibaba, Tesla, etc.) today think that it's like the dot-com bubble. It isn't. People who actually knew tech saw the dot-com bubble happening, and we know that this is different -- this isn't pets.com. You are confirming my girlfriend's theory that memories of the dot-com bubble are driving the irrational short-selling.

and simply got lucky with Facebook?
I didn't, because it wasn't obvious to me which social network (Friendster? Baidu?) would actually win. It was obvious one would win due to network effects. It's unfortunate it was the one run by Zuckerberg, who is kind of dumb, not thoughtful, not considerate, and easily convinced to do things which help propagandists.

Google? What's a Google?
The question with Google, as with Amazon, was where it would make money. It was clear it was the best search engine within about a year after its launch.
Once the ad business showed up, it was clear what would happen, but that took a while.

Amazon still doesn't make money on its primary business, and I think very few people would have predicted AWS would become their only profitable business line, which means before that became clear, it really was just a bet on Jeff Bezos. It would be rational to make the same bet on Musk given his track record at X.com, Paypal, and SpaceX, but we don't need to because we have a lot of information about the car industry.

Thanks for some rational bearish arguments; I like to sink my teeth against them. Much better than listening to TSLAQ nonsense. It's quite possible the stock is overvalued, so I keep an eye on my valuation models. (My average purchase price is still under $200 so I'm not in any rush to change to a different investment and incur capital gains taxes.)

FWIW, my biggest worry about Tesla is their internal disorganization and poor communications. This seems to have become corporate culture at this point and is going to be very hard, if not impossible, to fix. At some point this will bite Tesla, but right now my bullish thesis is largely based on the patheticness of the "competition" -- whose communications are even worse, thanks to franchised dealers and dieselgate and so on -- so it isn't really hurting Tesla now.
 
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about Google vs. Lycos.
You have commercial coders (CMU) and fundamental researchers (Standford). Who do you think would win?
It was actually a trivial question. One shouldn't look father than at usual suspects.
Google was funded by NSF, DARPA and NASA. Project was initiated by the best names in digital library research and data mining. Equipment donated by NSA primarely and later by practically all big names in computer industry.
Here we go: About Google!


Of course you can compare auto companies using same metrics.
You have battery cells, BMS, rotors. Just check were the best names are, and who has better access to research community.

The only real problems for Tesla are denied financing and lack of workforce. If to ignore mass-media noise about "failed deadlines" and to check Tesla's progress by comparing to the normal companies Tesla's evolution is unprecedented in auto industry.
 
Most people make the common mistake of using logic and reason to value TSLA. TSLA is priced beyond all reason and logic. Even if the company goes bankrupt, the stock will continue to be trading at an all time high and will continue to go higher forever.
 
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Most people make the common mistake of using logic and reason to value TSLA. TSLA is priced beyond all reason and logic. Even if the company goes bankrupt, the stock will continue to be trading at an all time high and will continue to go higher forever.
Welcome to TMC! I hope you stay with us a while. We need lots of opinions here.
Can you explain what you meant in your post? If TSLA is priced beyond all reason and logic, how can it also be true that "Most people make the common mistake of using logic and reason to value TSLA."? The stock is definitely priced with the assumption of continued rapid growth for at least a couple of years.
 
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The not-so-smart Tesla bears gather at Seeking Alpha. :oops:

Have you noticed how few comments are posted for every Tesla article on SA since the Q2 earnings report? Before that, when the FUD was in full swing, each article was getting >200 comments mostly against Tesla. Some of the articles had >600 comments. Since the Q2 report and sharp run up of stock price, comments are in 100 range, some articles getting <100. Now the comments seem more evenly distributed between bulls and bears. Looks like the bears are licking their wounds and taking a break
 
Didn’t want to buy more stock since that would push it to be over 5% of my portfolio. So bought September 15 call options when stock was at 305. I was firmly convinced the bad news was all overblown. The stock did drop further after that, but Volatility is normal here and was certain it would recover. Currently the options are up by 70%. Again, I am not expecting stock to drop anytime soon. So will hold till end of August.
 
A bit 'off-piste' but relevant in a perverse way.

I have both a 'Want one' reservation in for an I-Pace and a $1000 'deposit' on the Tesla M3 so I'm following the (poor) range issues on the I-Pace with interest.


Some thoughts....Tesla does a lot of stuff on the fly and uses early adopters as beta testers (much to the disgust of the auto crowd) We keep hearing that 'real motor' companies will test all Beta stuff before bringing a car to production - hence the endless testing and mules/camouflaged cars seen haunting the roads prior to release. Ditto the I-Pace.....


But it seems that Jaguar is so determined to beat Audi and Mercedes to market with an EV SUV that they have rushed the I-Pace a bit prematurely into 'production' - not withstanding the delays due to the headlights (Huh?!)


I'm fairly sure that the range issues with the I-Pace are not terminal or indefinite and are most probably software related. Even the Jaguar engineers seem to be calling aspects of the I-Pace "Beta"...!!!


There is some irony in here surely?
 
A bit 'off-piste' but relevant in a perverse way.

I have both a 'Want one' reservation in for an I-Pace and a $1000 'deposit' on the Tesla M3 so I'm following the (poor) range issues on the I-Pace with interest.


Some thoughts....Tesla does a lot of stuff on the fly and uses early adopters as beta testers (much to the disgust of the auto crowd) We keep hearing that 'real motor' companies will test all Beta stuff before bringing a car to production - hence the endless testing and mules/camouflaged cars seen haunting the roads prior to release. Ditto the I-Pace.....


But it seems that Jaguar is so determined to beat Audi and Mercedes to market with an EV SUV that they have rushed the I-Pace a bit prematurely into 'production' - not withstanding the delays due to the headlights (Huh?!)


I'm fairly sure that the range issues with the I-Pace are not terminal or indefinite and are most probably software related. Even the Jaguar engineers seem to be calling aspects of the I-Pace "Beta"...!!!


There is some irony in here surely?

I think battery design and battery management innovation and experience is one of Tesla’s biggest advantages/ They they have so much data on the use and life of so many batteries, and so many of the smartest people thinking about it and trying new things. This gives them a big advantage. It will take a while for other car mfrs, and their battery mfrs and BMS designers to catch up. I think we are seeing that with Jaguar and certainly saw it with the first Leaf. And I think unless German engineering pulls a rabbit out of hat, Porsche is likely to be forced to delay Taycan or face customer issues and changed specs.

That said, I think it is overall better for Tesla and the world, for more car mfrs to figure it out and get more good BEV products out there. More BEVs from other car mfrs validate the concept of BEVs and make more people open to consider them — and when they do, they will buy the best option for them — usually a Tesla.
 
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All I can add today is, "HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!"

Short shorts and you just lost your shirt :)

When the Bears take a $1.7B loss, that's a big wound and will take a lot of licking! I'm adding some salt to the wound and shorting the Shorts by purchasing more $TSLA.


lol