adiggs
Well-Known Member
I should clarify how I arrive at my estimation of the technology lead Tesla possesses in the car market. When I look at buyable technology, being manufactured at any scale the market demands and the company can grow to, then the only vaguely competitive product I know of that is buyable today is the Bolt. Vaguely competitive as in >200 miles of range in a BEV format.
Tesla had that technology released into the market in 2008 as a hand built, low volume, production car. The Bolt isn't being manufactured in any quantity the market desires - it's being manufactured at compliance levels.
So we could say that the Roadster wasn't a car being manufactured at scale - and it wasn't - so we could move our start of time to 2012 and the beginning of the Model S. That's a car that IS being manufactured at scale, now up to around 50k units/year (total of 100k units S + X, with a bit more S than X).
There are 2 cars I know of in the market, both manufactured by Tesla.
And now the Model 3 is ramping. Recent evidence of 2k/week puts it at a 100k unit/year build rate at the end of March, so this is car #3 in the market. Tesla has the first 3 cars in the marketplace, one in 2012, one in 2015 (now I forget first shipments), and now the model 3 in 2017.
The first competitor to any of these cars people like to talk about is the Bolt. I'll be generous and say that the Bolt satisfies my criteria - it's >200 miles of range, and full market demand for the Bolt is 20k units/year, and GM is making all that the market demands. So add 1 car to the list in 2016. Actual demand and enthusiasm in the market makes it clear which one buyers demand, but including the Bolt means that we have 1 company kind of in the ball park - we might put them 4 years in Tesla's rear view mirror (2016 brings tech comparable to Tesla 2012).
That's the very best available.
I personally believe Porsche will be the next best competitor, but as of today, their technology gap is 2018-2012 and growing (or we could call it 2018 - 2008 and growing - they haven't yet matched the Roadster technology).
Audi talks a good game: 2018-2008 and growing.
Mercedes - same.
Nissan! They're actually tackling the mass manufacturing side, and major kudos to them. Just that their technology isn't comparable. I hope their new Leaf sells like hotcakes - the range is short, but as a Roadster owner, I've got personal experience with living with almost that little range (170's in my car, vs what is likely a pragmatic 130's or 140's) - that's very usable. But that can't isn't at scale yet.
That's how I think about the technology gap.
The core difference I see in long term shorts (such as purchasing '19 or '20 Puts, or selling shares short) and long term owners (such as myself), is that we both talk about products and finances, but we lead with different items. I lead with products and monitor finances of the company for follow through and avoidance of inability to continue.
Shorts talk about company financials, and are largely confused about the company products.
Product matters.
You need to go test drive a Model S or X. It really doesn't matter which, and little more than desire and a driver's license will get you behind the wheel @ShortSeller. There's a paradigm shift that comes with this kind of electric drive and performance. A test drive might help you get to the other side of the paradigm, and it might not. It got me started, but it took owning a Roadster for 6 months to really get it, so it probably won't.
Until you do though, you're definitely doomed to think that a car is a car is a car, and on that scale, Tesla is a <edit: car company that is a> financial disaster.
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