Hi, I’m a short seller

[mongo]

Ooops-a-daisy

Tesla Model 3 kann mit Gewinn gebaut werden

via Google translate:

Didn't Deepak say $2k in equipment depreciation per car? Double that for human labor (20 hrs per car @ 2 min build rate = 600 people-steps) , and you still need to spend another $6k to equal their $10k production cost estimate...
I thin Elon said final assembly only has 50 steps, but we need to factor in sub module builds (door, drive units, motors)...

 

[sundaymorning]

I just wanted to stop by and say “hello”, where’s everybody?

 

[kaiserpathos]

I was coming in here to post something similar. lol

I think as each individual short-theory is squished each cycle, reality sets in and I doubt we'll see some of the original short folks in here to say much until the next cycle change. Interesting day, but the true carnage is yet to come.

 

[Reality]

I just wanted to stop by and say “hello”, where’s everybody?

I am here!

Definitely down a ton today, but not really worried at all.

Feels like a short squeeze altho admittedly i have no idea what caused it.

That SH meeting was a disaster.

 

[Reality]

I was coming in here to post something similar. lol

I think as each individual short-theory is squished each cycle, reality sets in and I doubt we'll see some of the original short folks in here to say much until the next cycle change. Interesting day, but the true carnage is yet to come.

what part of the theory was squashed? The 'stock price bro' theory? That's a bull theory

 

[MountainRoad]

I am here!

Definitely down a ton today, but not really worried at all.

Feels like a short squeeze altho admittedly i have no idea what caused it.

That SH meeting was a disaster.

I’m curious why you thought the shareholder meeting was a disaster. Having watched the whole thing, I thought it was excellent. As always, Elon seemed very open, sincere, and authentic to me during his speech and Q&A. I especially appreciated his humility when acknowledging some of his shortcomings. His speeches never seem overly scripted, which makes me trust the man more. I thought there was some good news regarding Model 3 production numbers and progress on a third final assembly line. I also appreciated the confirmation of the China factory and look forward to learning more about it.

 

[Electroman]

I’m curious why you thought the shareholder meeting was a disaster.

He meant that it was a disaster for him. That makes sense.

 

[kaiserpathos]

what part of the theory was squashed? The 'stock price bro' theory? That's a bull theory

No, I'm mainly thinking of short statements and theories given by a lot of retail shorts out there, as well as bearish put options I have read about - pretty much anything on Seeking Alpha the past 2-3 years. I think a lot of the short individual rationale the past 3 quarters (they'll never ramp to 5K before 2020, they'll not make GAAP profitability before having to raise $ again in 2018, they'll be bankrupt by 2020, etc ad infinitum) just aren't going to pan out.

The fundamentals have always been enticing for shorts, but with TSLA the fundamentals don't always apply -- at least not immediately as they do with other sectors. TSLA is on a different timescale, and unless you just really hate the company and the stock - a lot of the shorts calculus worked out for awhile but I really don't see things developing more for the existing TSLA short market in the coming 2-3 years.

 

[Mobius484]

Followed seeking alpha a couple years ago, the thesis I read about back then was the “giggle factory” and suspension problems, and various other banwuptcy theories... now it’s they will go banwupt when they sell 5000 cars a week. Very exiting to watch still. My smallish long position grew a bit today!

 

[felipey]

Schadenfreude:
Short sellers betting against Tesla lose more than $1 billion in single day as stock pops

 

[sundaymorning]

I am here!

Definitely down a ton today, but not really worried at all.

Feels like a short squeeze altho admittedly i have no idea what caused it.

That SH meeting was a disaster.

I appreciate you trying to put on a strong face. This won’t end well for you..don’t be like other shorts, make sure you say goodbye to us when it’s all said and done; most shorts just leave after the tsunami. If you think the spike today was bad, stick around till the end of the month, then 3rd Quarter.. I’ve seen how this movie plays out time and time again. If tomorrow ends up green, even if by 2-3 points, the next three weeks will feel much more painful.

Schadenfreude:
Short sellers betting against Tesla lose more than $1 billion in single day as stock pops

If tomorrow ends up being green, then they haven’t seen nothin’ yet.

 

[electracity]

Unless the economy falters short have a serious problem now through 2020. Tesla has not fundamentally screwed up the model 3, and demand is not going to be a problem for the next couple of years. If Tesla is disciplined they can actually start producing the model Y in 2020.

I thought the shareholders meeting was good. Musk was a weirdo, but a Steve Jobs-like weirdo.

 

[bdy0627]

I am here!

Definitely down a ton today, but not really worried at all.

Feels like a short squeeze altho admittedly i have no idea what caused it.

That SH meeting was a disaster.

Interesting take. Given the market's reaction today, I'm sure you are ecstatic that it was a disaster. Just imagine what the stock would have done if it was actually halfway decent.

Edit: Ahh, now I get it. You were saying it was a disaster for you as someone pointed out. Sorry, I'm a little slow sometimes.

 

[jelloslug]

Followed seeking alpha a couple years ago, the thesis I read about back then was the “giggle factory” and suspension problems, and various other banwuptcy theories... now it’s they will go banwupt when they sell 5000 cars a week. Very exiting to watch still. My smallish long position grew a bit today!

Don’t you know, selling cars is how you go banwupt.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Model 3 is a luxury sedan? Usually luxury sedans don’t include features like vanity mirrors installed with 2 sided tape and misaligned body panels and other things that legacy automakers figured out by 1980 or so.

I wanted to thank you for shorting and encouraging others to do so. Many do not like you but I love you

 

[sundaymorning]

Model 3 is a luxury sedan? Usually luxury sedans don’t include features like vanity mirrors installed with 2 sided tape and misaligned body panels and other things that legacy automakers figured out by 1980 or so.

Last time I checked the other “luxuries” don’t have a 15 inch center display that works as smooth as butter. But I do admit their vanity mirrors are bigger by 1/2 inches than Tesla’s.

 

[mhan00]

Did shortseller get closed out of his position by the leap? That seems pretty unlikely, since even a 10 percent jump in stock in a day should be fairly easy to cover. He would just have to add enough to his margin account to cover the increase in stock price of the stock or have enough other assets to offset the increase, right? I would have expected him to drop in by now, if only just to say that he’s still short and expecting Tesla to go down eventually even with the recent stock jump after the stock holders’ meeting. The guy sounded pretty dedicated to his position.

 

[EVMeister]

Oh don't worry, he'll be back. He's still very active on Twitter - check out his handle (ContrarianShort). He very recently posted this gem:

"No way $TSLA is making 3,000 M3s/wk, I bet it’s less than 2,000".

I agree that Tesla is very unlikely making 3,000 model 3s per week. It's almost certainly significantly higher at this point.

My bet is he doesn't want to spend too much time here because reality hurts. He would prefer to live in his wonderful Twitter world kissing the butt of his beloved Spiegel master.

 

[Electroman]

Welcome to ShortSeller3.

I guess ShortSeller2 got kicked out?

 

[Mobius484]

I’m glad your sticking around. I’m enjoying watching this play out.