Hi, I’m a short seller

[Reality]

@tesla people, this thread is a fantastic display of the trolling art. We are all trying to have logical conversations with people who aren't in the conversation for the purpose of argument, they are hear to get an emotional rise out of you. Coming to a Tesla fan site and being anti Tesla is the DEFINITION of troll.

Some may say they have valid points. Maybe, I would argue that many of the arguments are purposefully based in logical fallacies. If you see the need to respond, maybe a better approach would be linking to Thou shalt not commit logical fallacies Basically, anytime someone posts a obvious logical fallacies, just quote their post, and add a link to appropriate fallacy.

For example:

"Elon Musk isn't a business man, he doesn't know how to run a company, and therefore Tesla will fail" - Your logical fallacy is ad hominem

"So and So hedge fund manager or So and So investment bank said Tesla is failing, thus short the stock!" - Your logical fallacy is appeal to authority

You: "Shorts are using false information (cites sources) to artificially drag down positions so they can make money" Short: You are nothing but a fanboi, and this company is only based on fanbois." - Your logical fallacy is tu quoque

Just a few examples. But if you think it through, most are just that, fallacies. instead of engaging, just call out the fallacy. We are smart enough to see your argument once the fallacy is pointed out.

Cheers!

I came here to see if my opinion was way off base in my thesis that most Tesla bulls opinions are severely distorted from Reality (hence name)


I cant possibly express how much this opinion has been confirmed

 

[Mader Levap]

Ehhh, some people simply like to pick apart and point out nonsense for fun. That does not mean they were successfully trolled.

And beside, main point of many discussions is not to convince shorts/trolls (it rarely works, if ever), but to inform lurkers/bystanders why Tesla supporters think they are wrong.

 

[Reality]

@mandoskippy

What falacy is

"negative working capital"

"Continued losses"

"Crushing Debt"

"Questionable accounting"

"Poor manufacturing capabilities"

"Continued promises that normal people know are lies"

 

[ggr]

Ahh, now we are debating the abstract concepts of "What is reality anyway?".

 

[Reality]

Ahh, now we are debating the abstract concepts of "What is reality anyway?".

im going out on a limb and saying "not EV trucks with 300k lbs towing capacity"


if i die on that limb, so be it

 

[mongo]

im going out on a limb and saying "not EV trucks with 300k lbs towing capacity"


if i die on that limb, so be it

Model X can tow 287,00 pounds of plane
A Tesla Model X just pulled a gigantic Boeing airplane like it's nothing
or 250,000 lbs of muck
Watch Tesla Model X pulling 250,000 lbs of muck rail cars out of the Boring Company’s tunnel

So a truck towing 20% more seems realistic...

 

[Reciprocity]

I came here to see if my opinion was way off base in my thesis that most Tesla bulls opinions are severely distorted from Reality (hence name)


I cant possibly express how much this opinion has been confirmed

Then you should be over joyed at the opportunity to increase your short position today as the stock takes a run at 350 and beyond. If you hated it at 250, you must really hate it at 350.

 

[Henchman]

I came here to see if my opinion was way off base in my thesis that most Tesla bulls opinions are severely distorted from Reality (hence name)


I cant possibly express how much this opinion has been confirmed

Don't cry later that Elon didn't warn you.

The squeeze is starting
The price of the Performance is lowered
Deliverily floodgates are opening, with dates starting June 3rd are being reported everywhere
All remaining reservation holders are getti g invites en masse

 

[Reality]

All remaining reservation holders are getti g invites en masse

You think this is a good thing?

 

[Kenriko]

I really think once Tesla Truck is a thing, Tesla will have halo vehicles for all the major segments that people lust over - roadsters, sedans, SUVs, pickups, semis - and that will be checkmate for ICE; as it will be obvious everywhere that EVs are superior. Where I live, in rural America, it's all about huge diesels and rollin' coal. These fools think that pollution equals performance. They will soon too be emasculated just like Tesla's other vehicles are doing to their respective segments.

Ohhh look at me in my 90k Platinum F150 rollin coal.. WTF was that truck that just dusted me off the line pulling a 50ft boat?

 

[Henchman]

You think this is a good thing?

Only a shorter would think that's bad.

 

[Boomer19]

You think this is a good thing?

please explain why inviting customers to configure, place deposit, on vehicle is bad.
thanks

 

[Unpilot]

I think perhaps some on this thread cant see reality

 

[neroden]

People will first under predict the impact of the technology then over estimate it as growth become exponential. IIRC even Elon said this during one of his interviews.

Quoted from Wikipedia:

Technology life cycle - Wikipedia
The Innovation S-Curve
The Diffusion of Innovations – The Bass Model

You're beginnning to get it. Just beginning to. Study harder.

Most organizations are still underpredicting using linear models right now.

After all, the end state is 100% electric cars total, not just 100% *new* electric cars. If you look at the logistic curve, the exponential growth should continue at least until 50% of all new cars worldwide are electric (which should be 2028-2030). This shouldn't surprise you; in the EV market leader country, Norway, more than 50% of new cars sold are electric already.

I personally suspect the EV percentage will coast right up to 99% of new cars partly because I think governments are going to step in and start banning new ICE cars during the late period. After all, nobody likes tailpipe emissions. There will probably be exceptions for weird specialized equipment.

TCO is lower on EVs than on ICE cars and EVs are nicer. This means that every new car buyer who can afford it will get an EV. So ICEs will be restricted to specialized equipment and the very low end of the market (where upfront capital requirements dominate over TCO) by 2028-2030. Low-end cars have awful profit margins, so the car companies will have little interest in continuing to sell them. And I can't think of any world government which is likely to make special efforts to keep extremely-low-end new gasoline cars on the market; governments are not usually responsive when poor people want something which will pollute the air for middle class people.

Meanwhile, there will be a lot of *old* and *used* gasoline cars on the market. For a long time. That's going to be the back half of the logistic adoption curve -- it will take decades for the used market to be displaced. Since the residual value of used gasoline cars will drop a lot, the low end of the new car market is going to take a further hit from that: someone who might have bought a $13000 new car will probably spring for a used $13000 gasoline car which was high-end when it was built. This is relevant to modeling the decline of gasoline usage, which will have a long tail, but it is not relevant to the trajectory of *new* car sales, which will still hit 99% quickly.

(Note that during the exponential phase, total EVs on the road is roughly 3x the most recent year's sales. However, with ~100 million cars & trucks sold per year and about 1.2 billion cars & trucks in the world fleet, it'll take another decade after all new cars are electric to replace the existing fleet... longer if the lifetime of the cars keeps extending)

I suppose I am throwing pearls before swine here, but I like to teach, and maybe you'll learn something.

 

[neroden]

There will be no import EV boom from China. Period.

That's what they said about Japanese cars in the 1960s. They'll be imported. Don't be stupid.

BYD and Geely are both serious about EV production, they're not just doing it to comply with Chinese government mandates, they're doing it as a moral choice (for BYD) or a strategic choice (for Geely).

 

[sundaymorning]

Awefully quiet lately. Let’s bring this thread back to life.

Question for shorters, how confident are you that Tesla will not hit the 5k target this quarter?

 

[mandoskippy]

"negative working capital"

"Continued losses"

"Crushing Debt"

The first three are Your logical fallacy is black or white

Basically you are saying because these exist, there can be no upside. You ignore the fact that Tesla could stop spending money on R&D today and change a loss to a profit. You ignore the fact that if needed capitial their lines would shutdown, and you ignore that debt looked at in independance from the assets is silly.



"Questionable accounting"

"Poor manufacturing capabilities"


these two are Your logical fallacy is ambiguity


You don't back up questionable, you just put "what about" statements without identifying the why. You look at small components in isolation to prove your point.


"Continued promises that normal people know are lies"

Your logical fallacy is no true scotsman

Most def, "Normal people know the truth" is a no-true-scotsman argument.

I mean, trolls goes "Reality" has some staying power, points for that; but originality, content, and effort really seem lacking. 2 out 10 maybe? Perhaps it's just performance anxiety. Don't worry buddy, it happens to everyone!

 

[Reality]

Awefully quiet lately. Let’s bring this thread back to life.

Question for shorters, how confident are you that Tesla will not hit the 5k target this quarter?

I think they probably will, for 1 single burst week, or close to it


Enjoy paying 50k for one of those cars

 

[mandoskippy]

Ohh, Reality is not just a troll, he's a jealous troll! I think we understand now. Reality, because of your lack of creativeness, and your fueling jealously, I have to knock you down to 1/10 on the troll scale. Please up your game...

 

[sundaymorning]

I think they probably will, for 1 single burst week, or close to it


Enjoy paying 50k for one of those cars

Do you think that single burst rate be sustainable Q3? Will they do 6k end of Q3?

 

[Reality]

Do you think that single burst rate be sustainable Q3? Will they do 6k end of Q3?

Not sustainable


Honeslty tho it doesnt matter, i dont think they make money on their cars. Build a million cars in 40 tents i dont really care. They cant do it profitably. All evidence suggests this. If you think Tesla is going to be profitable loading cars on forklifts onto lines built in tents, well not sure what to tell you.