Hi, I’m a short seller

[Zhelko Dimic]

I really think once Tesla Truck is a thing, Tesla will have halo vehicles for all the major segments that people lust over - roadsters, sedans, SUVs, pickups, semis - and that will be checkmate for ICE; as it will be obvious everywhere that EVs are superior. Where I live, in rural America, it's all about huge diesels and rollin' coal. These fools think that pollution equals performance. They will soon too be emasculated just like Tesla's other vehicles are doing to their respective segments.

Truck is a thing only for North America. No one else gets it or has roads and parkings wide enough for trucks. NA is huge market, but still only ~20%, maybe 22-23% of the world. Now SUVs are a thing almost everywhere...

 

[Henchman]

Is anyone else at all nervous to put down a non refundable 2.5k deposit right now?


Reports are that they opened this up to everyone.


So a cash incineration company that is running extremely low on cash and has leveraged every asset they can, now wants you to give them 2.5k, non refundable to build a car that their CEO said they would die if they produced no more than a monthish ago.


Does no one find that odd?

Wow, you're really desperate

Everyone who has a Model 3 right now, put down $2500 when they configured

Go to any car dealer
Order a specific car configured to your exact specifications, and see if you have to put down a deposit

 

[JoaoD]

Wow, you're really desperate

Everyone who has a Model 3 right now, put down $2500 when they configured

Go to any car dealer
Order a specific car configured to your exact specifications, and see if you have to put down a deposit

Next thing he is gonna scream that you have to pay before you take the car home, who would have though so?

 

[Electroman]

Several hit pieces on the $2500 payment for confirmation including one from Dana Hull, as if it is a new thing.

Pathetic lies. Sick I tell ya

 

[GWord]

@Reality

the moderator should bounce your sorry butt

Exposure to contrary opinions is healthy for real and substantive discourse. Even if some folks are here to just stir the pot, it still causes fans here to turn a critical eye towards their own opinions and back them up with real facts. Without folks like Reality and ShortSeller, we become our own echo chamber of biased positivity and, since we never challenge ourselves, there wouldn't be the obligation of having to ever back anything up. Assuming Reality is actually transacting the security (something I'm not convinced of), he/she is smart to come here to test the opposite hypothesis to their own short theories. The negative echo chamber of Seeking Alpha or Yahoo Finance can also be detrimental to making an objective decision.

 

[Reciprocity]

More shorts, more Squeeze. The dumber the better. I am pulling for Lora to really drive up the short interest. I am starting to thing this is not Big Oil but rather Big Finance. They are positioning for a short squeeze and probably playing both sides of this FOMO stock. Smart dudes. They pay fudsters to lure in shorts, its really brilliant if you think about it. They can totally hide behind all the big oil and auto industry that wants to kill Tesla.

The reason I think this way? Because you would have to be utterly stupid to think this company could go BK. Its as ridiculous as anything I have ever heard. The arguments are so dumb, as if to set a trap a for the less educated masses that wont know how to get out before its to late. Lack of demand? Deposits required for orders? Cash Burn! is the best because its really stupid. Tesla is buying hardware, thus cash is turned into assets, cash burn is buying advertising like GM.

More shorts please.

 

[GWord]

So a cash incineration company that is running extremely low on cash and has leveraged every asset they can, now wants you to give them 2.5k, non refundable to build a car that their CEO said they would die if they produced no more than a monthish ago.


Does no one find that odd?

Another option to consider is that this is a strategy to help control cancellations by getting people to commit. This would require that they have the production capacity to handle the expected take rate on the LR/AWD/Perf that this might generate. So two theories to contemplate. Perhaps a blend of the two in reality.

 

[Boomer19]

Exposure to contrary opinions is healthy for real and substantiate discourse. Even if some folks are here to just stir the pot, it still causes fans here to turn a critical eye towards their own opinions and back them up with real facts. Without folks like Reality and ShortSeller, we become our own echo chamber of biased positivity and, since we never challenge ourselves, there wouldn't be the obligation of having to ever back anything up. Assuming Reality is actually transacting the security (something I'm not convinced of), he/she is smart to come here to test the opposite hypothesis to their own short theories. The negative echo chamber of Seeking Alpha or Yahoo Finance can also be detrimental to making an objective decision.

i welcome the opinions, i’ve repeatedly said this. and i’m not in the camp with GTCs selling at 2000 either, so let’s just get that out of the way.
i’ve repeatedly asked for his/her opinions, other than just parroting the latest media hit piece.

but i won’t welcome them coming here trying to stir up fear, trying to capitalize on the media hooplah (and lies, zerohedge said you either make downpayment or lose resv),
for first time customers about to make down payment on a vehicle they’ve waited two years for, by implying it’s a dangerous move to make.

i’m tired of it, this isn’t a game anymore. if he was standing outside a toyota dealer doing that he’d be escorted to the curb. period.

 

[Reality]

Exposure to contrary opinions is healthy for real and substantiate discourse. Even if some folks are here to just stir the pot, it still causes fans here to turn a critical eye towards their own opinions and back them up with real facts. Without folks like Reality and ShortSeller, we become our own echo chamber of biased positivity and, since we never challenge ourselves, there wouldn't be the obligation of having to ever back anything up. Assuming Reality is actually transacting the security (something I'm not convinced of), he/she is smart to come here to test the opposite hypothesis to their own short theories. The negative echo chamber of Seeking Alpha or Yahoo Finance can also be detrimental to making an objective decision.

Thank you, i left SA because i agree its just a negative echo chamber. I even try to follow some fox news pundits to hear the other side of political arguments, but honestly i can only take that for so long. You guys are a much more pleasant group despite our differences.

I have a fairly significant position that i can prove if i had any reason to, i have puts on IB and shares on TDA and IB, split because contract costs on IB are way lower than TDA but TDA borrow rate is much lower than IB, but IB has more liquidity to short.


It would be weird for me to know all that and not have a position.

 

[Reality]

CIO leaves

 

[Reality]

i welcome the opinions, i’ve repeatedly said this. and i’m not in the camp with GTCs selling at 2000 either, so let’s just get that out of the way.
i’ve repeatedly asked for his/her opinions, other than just parroting the latest media hit piece.

but i won’t welcome them coming here trying to stir up fear, trying to capitalize on the media hooplah (and lies, zerohedge said you either make downpayment or lose resv),
for first time customers about to make down payment on a vehicle they’ve waited two years for, by implying it’s a dangerous move to make.

i’m tired of it, this isn’t a game anymore. if he was standing outside a toyota dealer doing that he’d be escorted to the curb. period.

First, im a dude

second, what have I not answered? I am relatively positive that every opinion i have someone else on twitter has too, that doesnt mean im 'parroting a hit piece'

 

[Reality]

Interesting FUD thread for those of you who are interested in data points that no one individual could probably source all by themselves.

It does have a lot of support, but Elon didnt say it is true so im not sure how everyone here would interpret it.


iso 14001 on Twitter

 

[Boomer19]

Thank you, i left SA because i agree its just a negative echo chamber. I even try to follow some fox news pundits to hear the other side of political arguments, but honestly i can only take that for so long. You guys are a much more pleasant group despite our differences.

I have a fairly significant position that i can prove if i had any reason to, i have puts on IB and shares on TDA and IB, split because contract costs on IB are way lower than TDA but TDA borrow rate is much lower than IB, but IB has more liquidity to short.


It would be weird for me to know all that and not have a position.

agreed, i don’t recommend anyone sharing detailed positions. it’s not necessary and really nobody’s business.

i just want to know what i asked...

what is your forecast, prediction, prognosis, whatever you want to call it, for tesla?

short term or long term, doesn’t matter. please describe.

 

[Reciprocity]

CIO leaves

View attachment 313218

CIO was let go.

 

[GWord]

Interesting FUD thread for those of you who are interested in data points that no one individual could probably source all by themselves.

It does have a lot of support, but Elon didnt say it is true so im not sure how everyone here would interpret it.


iso 14001 on Twitter

Certainly would explain why the paint line seems to be holding things up. The positive gem buried in the data is that a capacity uprate is already permitted. It would be curious to know what the current project status is in terms of getting additional capability installed.

 

[Reality]

agreed, i don’t recommend anyone sharing detailed positions. it’s not necessary and really nobody’s business.

i just want to know what i asked...


what is your forecast, prediction, prognosis, whatever you want to call it, for tesla?

short term or long term, doesn’t matter. please describe.

OK, well i basically think this plays out 1 of 3 ways. I wont assign weights but all have decent weight.



1) They get to 5k a week, plow through the backlog and manage to eek out a GAAP profit. They are able to do a massive capital raise of 5B+ of equity (diluting shares by 10% or so), and are set for the next 2 years or so. If this happens, I am likely to restructure my short position (not close it but definitely change it).

THis is the best case imo, what will happen tho is that they will slip back into negative cash flow and no income and try to hype with model Y (semi and roadster are more or less meaningless at these valuations). However, they will slip into a flat to declining QoQ revenue point in the 1H of 19 and likely declining in 2H of 2019. This will put pressure on the already diluted share price because it will start being valued like traditional auto makers (.5x revenueish, w tesla model Y hype probably more like a little under 2x rev max, which is around 40b on a now diluted share count). I dont think we ever see 200k model 3s in 1 year, ever. Thats not a production question, i just dont think the demand is or ever will be there unless they truly can sell them for 35k.

Again I think this is the best case



2) They cant get to 5k and cant eek out a profit and cant raise. If this happens they are BK by 1H 2019 because they run out of cash. I think this is probably the most likely option.



3) They are sitting on a Wells notice for either

a) the SCTY acquisition whose lynchpin was the solar roof (that doesnt exist with the capabilities claimed)

or

b) The 1.8b bond issuance that Elon claimed 5k per week by end of 2017 (these bond holders cant be happy) IF there is proof that they knew the 5k wasnt possible when they made the issuance (which seems far from impossible).


If this is the case we likely see BK before the end of 2018.

I consider 3 to be the least likely.






The next level of all of this is the accounting items i have listed before, inflated gross margin, etc etc. #1 alone is the best case the way i see it, and even then i believe its buying time hoping for some miracle govt bailout or something.

 

[Reality]

CIO was let go.

you really need to stop reading electrek edit: my mistake you are correct, he was fired

 

[Boomer19]

OK, well i basically think this plays out 1 of 3 ways. I wont assign weights but all have decent weight.



1) They get to 5k a week, plow through the backlog and manage to eek out a GAAP profit. They are able to do a massive capital raise of 5B+ of equity (diluting shares by 10% or so), and are set for the next 2 years or so. If this happens, I am likely to restructure my short position (not close it but definitely change it).

THis is the best case imo, what will happen tho is that they will slip back into negative cash flow and no income and try to hype with model Y (semi and roadster are more or less meaningless at these valuations). However, they will slip into a flat to declining QoQ revenue point in the 1H of 19 and likely declining in 2H of 2019. This will put pressure on the already diluted share price because it will start being valued like traditional auto makers (.5x revenueish, w tesla model Y hype probably more like a little under 2x rev max, which is around 40b on a now diluted share count). I dont think we ever see 200k model 3s in 1 year, ever. Thats not a production question, i just dont think the demand is or ever will be there unless they truly can sell them for 35k.

Again I think this is the best case



2) They cant get to 5k and cant eek out a profit and cant raise. If this happens they are BK by 1H 2019 because they run out of cash. I think this is probably the most likely option.



3) They are sitting on a Wells notice for either

a) the SCTY acquisition whose lynchpin was the solar roof (that doesnt exist with the capabilities claimed)

or

b) The 1.8b bond issuance that Elon claimed 5k per week by end of 2017 (these bond holders cant be happy) IF there is proof that they knew the 5k wasnt possible when they made the issuance (which seems far from impossible).


If this is the case we likely see BK before the end of 2018.

I consider 3 to be the least likely.




The next level of all of this is the accounting items i have listed before, inflated gross margin, etc etc. #1 alone is the best case the way i see it, and even then i believe its buying time hoping for some miracle govt bailout or something.

thank you.

 

[mongo]

CIO was let go.

What, the guy who was responsible for the group that didn't notice that gigabytes of data left the company???
Shocked I tell you Shocked!

 

[GWord]

Interesting FUD thread for those of you who are interested in data points that no one individual could probably source all by themselves.

It does have a lot of support, but Elon didnt say it is true so im not sure how everyone here would interpret it.


iso 14001 on Twitter

This appears to contradict some of the info in your linked thread: Tesla’s Fremont Factory Expansion: 2 Years and $51.3 Million Spent Since Master Plan Part 2 Published

I'm not quite sure how to reconcile both, but it does appear that paint shop capacity has been added post 2016.