So one thing is there aren’t any 2170 packs over 5 years old yet for the 3/Y. There are plenty of 18650 model S’s though and quite a few have needed full pack replacement in the 7-9 year range. One would assume they’ve learned from the older S packs that failed and the newer packs will last longer. I don’t think anyone can say for certain though. For now the 3/Y warranty is 8years or 120k miles.
Aside from the battery lasting. I’m a little concerned with your 200 mile commute, while the 3/Y are rated at 330 miles my personal car is closer to a 200 mile car realistically and 150 in the winter. Now I drive badly, have 20” tires, and roof rails. Some people can get more out their cars, but not me. I will say the energy difference between driving 60 and 70MPH is dramatic. Without knowing your location, type of commute, charging availability, etc I’d probably recommend an S just on mileage alone. S warranty is 8 year 150k miles.