BobbyKings
S85D > M3P > S Plaid
Glass roof glue is still solidifying.
Pictures please...
Pictures please...
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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
- Start date
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- Tags
- Model 3
Garlan Garner
Banned
Couldn't someone from elected or anyone living near by stop by Fremont delivery center where m3 was spotted earlier and take a vin pic of any m3 waiting for delivery? If there aren't m3 sitting in parking lot with vins ending in 8xx,9xx, etc, i'd say ramp definitely not started. I'm just baffled by random reporting of Tesla news sites stating ramp started without this type of data.
Yuri_G
Member
Dennis reported #310 being delivered a day or so ago. Doesn't seem like 1500 is happening. Maybe 500?
From those of us veterans of Tesla launches... recommend don't be literal about any of this. Don't try to count and prophesize. They appear to be still in the stage of testing/tweaking tooling, and they cannot start producing fast until that is stable. IMO there's really nothing big happening til we see VIN 1000, at which point I expect some members here should have been contacted to configure and finalize orders.
Whether that is September, October, early November should not have a lasting impact with a backlog of half a million reservations as long as they ramp "exponentially" from there. Except of course to Garlan's psyche
. As long as they hit good run rate by end of year. After TGiving, I'd start to worry that either there's a supply chain issue or real tooling issues. Until then, it's all ok. But I totally understand the impatience now!!! Pix make it look so close!
Whether that is September, October, early November should not have a lasting impact with a backlog of half a million reservations as long as they ramp "exponentially" from there. Except of course to Garlan's psyche
. As long as they hit good run rate by end of year. After TGiving, I'd start to worry that either there's a supply chain issue or real tooling issues. Until then, it's all ok. But I totally understand the impatience now!!! Pix make it look so close!
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K-MTG
Sunshade Captain of TMC
The problem with the Model X launch is that cars that were built were sitting in SC’s for weeks prior to delivery due to quality issues...it became such an issue that SC’s were covering the VIN’s so owners wouldn’t complain that there car is merely sitting for repairs.
So far we haven’t seen any of this with the 3...definitely a good thing!
So far we haven’t seen any of this with the 3...definitely a good thing!
AlanSqB
Dog Chauffeur
If you go back to 2012 and look at the significant delays it took to get the Model S done right (vs Fisker that was more concerned about meeting deadlines instead of doing it right), and then see what has developed in the past 5 years. A small delay is not bad, it just means Tesla values quality.
Ok, let me give an example. The serial number is 6 numeric digits. The check 'digit' is an alphabetic letter. Let's decide to create a check digit routine by adding all the digits in the serial number, mod it by 26, and assign the letter corresponding to that number to the check digit. (Yes, there are better check digit routines, but this one is simple for the explanation). Serial number 067896 gives a check digit of 36 -> 10 -> J. If we decide arbitrarily that RC cars get a routine of add all the digits, ADD 2, mod by 26, and convert to letter, then and RC car with 067896 would get a check digit of 38 -> 12 -> L. When Tesla checks a VIN, the car they compute the check digit, get J, and check against the check digit in the VIN, if they match, it is a legitimate check digit, if not it is not. UNLESS it is L instead, in which case it is a legitimate check on a RC VIN.
If the claim is being made that the car in question is in a customer's hand, the L counts as a failed check digit. If the provenance of the car is unknown this gives Tesla a way of differentiating between production and RC cars while still maintaining the check digit.
I hope this clear up the confusion.
Thank you kindly.
p.s. Definitely not saying that Tesla does this or anything like it, just that they could.
How can you build any cars if the vendors don’t have any parts ready? Maybe your definition of ready differs from mine. But if they started building in July (which they did), I’d expect their vendors to be ready to supply parts in July.
Buddyroe
Active Member
My question is, did Musk mean they would deliver 1500 in September, or did he mean Tesla would be at a 1500 per week run rate by the end of September? I ask because EM talks about production more in build rate per week or month than he EVER does monthly totals. If 300 cars are built on Sept 30th, and EM was indeed referring to run rate, then he met what he estimated.
I guess we'll see.
I guess we'll see.
We're in the exponential part where they should be producing 50-100 m3 per day of they are too meet 1500 q3 car goal. I.e. July-Aug-sep.
While I do not think I can rule the 1,500 estimate out for September, I will agree it is appearing less likely as we compare VIN sightings to dates.
Yes, the dramatic effect of everyone getting their car 1 week later than originally projected.
K-MTG
Sunshade Captain of TMC
I get it the first week of January instead of last week of December...another year to get that TAX credit
