Highest production VIN in the wild

[ℬête Noire]

While I think it's fun to track the highest VIN, I don't think parallels to the German tank problem apply, as German tank serial numbers were assigned sequentially, but Tesla's VINs are not.

There's no guarantee that any particular VIN will ever be used, as obtaining VINs is essentially free: up to a million VINs per particular model configuration (battery type + drive unit) per year.

Therefore, the person registering VINs at Tesla needn't coordinate at all with the factory; they could well just register VINs according to a static exponential table delivered to them months ago.

Similarly, VINs may be assigned to cars in arbitrary order, such as by truck delivery number, geographic region ("third shipment to Boston"), color, delivery week, production line, internal version number (v1.33), or my favorite: random(1, max_registered_vin).

It's not as clean, because they don't seem to be quite as OCD about keeping to precise, straight sequence as the Third Reich was, but it is entirely applicable. That's why I said the same area. There's a variation here, where you're got a looser but still constrained pool they are drawing from to add to the end but there is still clearly bias toward the bottom going on. This creates a sort of double jointed problem so you've got another level of indirection but underlying concept is the same.

 

[UZJedi]

Of course I'm using the key card instead for now.

Does it with through a thin layer of wallet? I use several other key cards this way. That would be convenient enough for me until they sorted out the issues with the app.

 

[CarbonFree]

Looking at the Bloomberg (really TMC) Model 3 tracker, here: We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making, I am left with the impression that Tesla has switched to random allocation from the unused VIN pool. That would argue that the rate of VIN assignment may be a better estimator than the highest seen. Yet, even that metric is obfuscated, as Tesla tends to assign VINs in batches.

Weekly reported deliveries on the spreadsheet look pretty flat.

 

[RedishArctic]

8225 at the Minneapolis Service Center.

 

[BluePhoton]

Found this one at the North Scottsdale Service Center today:

Vin # 3153

A nice white Model 3 with black aero wheels:

 

[bnsfengineer]

Highest VIN may be a bit misleading: I ordered Feb 9, and received my 60xx VIN today, Feb 17.

Think you have a point..got vin on 2-16 and its 62xx

 

[sreams]

Think you have a point..got vin on 2-16 and its 62xx

There are many cars out there... at Fremont, on trucks, at service centers. While they may or may not be manufactured in sequential order, they are definitely not delivered in sequential order. No surprise there.

 

[aronth5]

Looking at the Bloomberg (really TMC) Model 3 tracker, here: We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making, I am left with the impression that Tesla has switched to random allocation from the unused VIN pool. That would argue that the rate of VIN assignment may be a better estimator than the highest seen. Yet, even that metric is obfuscated, as Tesla tends to assign VINs in batches.

Weekly reported deliveries on the spreadsheet look pretty flat.

The other possible conclusion is that as time goes on fewer and fewer owners will use TMC consequently there will be less reporting on the spreadsheet.
The hard core followers are more likely to be existing owners and followers of Tesla and going forward that may diminish. The result the percentage of new owners updating the spreadsheet will diminish. I've talked to many Tesla owners who are unaware of TMC so not a surprise.

 

[TaylorSMarks]

The other possible conclusion is that as time goes on fewer and fewer owners will use TMC consequently there will be less reporting on the spreadsheet.
The hard core followers are more likely to be existing owners and followers of Tesla and going forward that may diminish. The result the percentage of new owners updating the spreadsheet will diminish. I've talked to many Tesla owners who are unaware of TMC so not a surprise.

I think we'll have another surge in the spreadsheet usage once Tesla starts inviting from a new pool of people (IE, non-owners, or owners from other countries, or people who want other configurations.) It's drying up because they're no longer inviting day one people - the fanatics who were most likely to know about and fill in the spreadsheet.

We should still have VIN plates coming in at about the same rate, right? People are still taking pictures of them whether the car belongs to them or not, and the production is supposedly increasing, so that should cause those uploads to become more common. But then the fact that we're now 7 months into deliveries makes it less exciting so fewer people are so determined to get pictures. The two factors cancel each other out. So VIN plate pictures should be coming in at the same rate as they always have been.

This wait is frustrating.

 

[navguy12]

and the production is supposedly increasing

"Supposedly" being the correct term in this case.

We are at end week 7 of 2018.

At 1000/week in 2018, one would expect to see VINs near 9400 today.

 

[daveruns]

VIN #6331

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

"Supposedly" being the correct term in this case.

We are at end week 7 of 2018.

At 1000/week in 2018, one would expect to see VINs near 9400 today.

The factory was closed the first week of the year. We started seeing VINs in the 8000s a few days ago. I’d say we’re on pace.

 

[bnsfengineer]

VIN #6331
View attachment 281345

I'm "supposed" to take delivery Saturday and my Vin is within 50 of that number!

 

[avoigt]

"Supposedly" being the correct term in this case.

We are at end week 7 of 2018.

At 1000/week in 2018, one would expect to see VINs near 9400 today.

Can you help us to understand how you did came to that 9.400 numbering what makes you believe we supposed to be higher ?

 

[smak]

"Supposedly" being the correct term in this case.

We are at end week 7 of 2018.

At 1000/week in 2018, one would expect to see VINs near 9400 today.

Are you basing 9400 on total produced, or total delivered?

 

[CarbonFree]

insideevs.com pegs the total delivered at 3,647 through January 31st. I tend to trust their numbers, but who knows?

 

[EV-lutioin]

insideevs.com pegs the total delivered at 3,647 through January 31st. I tend to trust their numbers, but who knows?

5,110 through 1/31 according to Bloomberg, but as you said.... who knows?

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

 

[CarbonFree]

5,110 through 1/31 according to Bloomberg, but as you said.... who knows?

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

I think Bloomberg counts produced, while insideevs.com counts delivered; they could both be right (or wrong).

 

[navguy12]

The factory was closed the first week of the year.

I have read this before and had assumed it was a rumor.

Has this been confirmed (do you work at the factory, for example?)? Cheers.

 

[navguy12]

Can you help us to understand how you did came to that 9.400 numbering what makes you believe we supposed to be higher ?

j

Are you basing 9400 on total produced, or total delivered?

The VINS (normally) are a running tally.

IIRC, "about" 2400 units were made (not delivered, but acknowledged as made) as of 31 Dec 2017.

So, at end of week seven of 2018, at 1000 units a week, that makes 7000 units made in 2018.

2400 +7000 = 9400 VIN units as of two days ago.......if the factory has been running every week in 2018 and producing 1000 units a week.